Download or read book Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making written by Rick Evertsz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-23 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Download or read book Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making written by Rick Evertsz and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Download or read book Complex Decision Making written by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-22 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Download or read book The Dynamic Decision Maker written by Michael J. Driver and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 1998 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.
Download or read book Complex Decision Making written by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah and published by Springer Verlag. This book was released on 2008 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory written by Günter Haag and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-10-05 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof.W.Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.
Download or read book Decision Making written by Fausto Pedro García Márquez and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2018-09-19 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making is a book where each chapter has been contributed to by a different author(s). The book synthesizes the analytical principles with business practice of Decision Making. Specifically, the book provides an interface between the main disciplines of engineering/technology and the organizational, administrative, and planning abilities of decision making. It is complementary to other sub-disciplines such as economics, finance, marketing, decision and risk analysis, etc. The chapters introduce and demonstrate decision making theory in practical case studies. It demonstrates key results for each sector with diverse real-world case studies. The theory is accompanied by relevant analysis techniques, with a progressional approach building from simple theory to complex and dynamic decisions with multiple data points, including big data, etc. Computational techniques, dynamic analysis, probabilistic methods, and mathematical optimization techniques are expertly blended to support analysis of multi-criteria decision-making problems with defined constraints and requirements.
Download or read book Anticipatory Optimization for Dynamic Decision Making written by Stephan Meisel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-23 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The availability of today’s online information systems rapidly increases the relevance of dynamic decision making within a large number of operational contexts. Whenever a sequence of interdependent decisions occurs, making a single decision raises the need for anticipation of its future impact on the entire decision process. Anticipatory support is needed for a broad variety of dynamic and stochastic decision problems from different operational contexts such as finance, energy management, manufacturing and transportation. Example problems include asset allocation, feed-in of electricity produced by wind power as well as scheduling and routing. All these problems entail a sequence of decisions contributing to an overall goal and taking place in the course of a certain period of time. Each of the decisions is derived by solution of an optimization problem. As a consequence a stochastic and dynamic decision problem resolves into a series of optimization problems to be formulated and solved by anticipation of the remaining decision process. However, actually solving a dynamic decision problem by means of approximate dynamic programming still is a major scientific challenge. Most of the work done so far is devoted to problems allowing for formulation of the underlying optimization problems as linear programs. Problem domains like scheduling and routing, where linear programming typically does not produce a significant benefit for problem solving, have not been considered so far. Therefore, the industry demand for dynamic scheduling and routing is still predominantly satisfied by purely heuristic approaches to anticipatory decision making. Although this may work well for certain dynamic decision problems, these approaches lack transferability of findings to other, related problems. This book has serves two major purposes: ‐ It provides a comprehensive and unique view of anticipatory optimization for dynamic decision making. It fully integrates Markov decision processes, dynamic programming, data mining and optimization and introduces a new perspective on approximate dynamic programming. Moreover, the book identifies different degrees of anticipation, enabling an assessment of specific approaches to dynamic decision making. ‐ It shows for the first time how to successfully solve a dynamic vehicle routing problem by approximate dynamic programming. It elaborates on every building block required for this kind of approach to dynamic vehicle routing. Thereby the book has a pioneering character and is intended to provide a footing for the dynamic vehicle routing community.
Download or read book The Practice of Enterprise Modeling written by Geert Poels and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-14 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume constitutes the proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 8.1 Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling held in November 2017 in Leuven, Belgium. The conference was created by the International Federation for Information Processing (IFIP) Working Group 8.1 to offer a forum for knowledge transfer and experience sharing between the academic and practitioner communities. The 20 full papers and 4 short papers accepted were carefully reviewed and selected from 70 submissions. They include research results, practitioner/experience reports and work-in-progress papers and were presented in 8 sessions covering diverse topics related to enterprise modelling and its application in practice.
Download or read book Wharton on Making Decisions written by Stephen J. Hoch and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-08-20 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.
Download or read book The Practice of Enterprise Modeling written by Jennifer Horkoff and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-27 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume constitutes the proceedings of the 9th IFIP WG 8.1 Conference on the Practice of Enterprise Modeling held in November 2016 in Skövde, Sweden. The PoEM conference series started in 2008 and aims to provide a forum sharing knowledge and experiences between the academic community and practitioners from industry and the public sector. The 18 full papers and 9 short papers accepted were carefully reviewed and selected from 54 submissions and cover topics related to information systems development, enterprise modeling, requirements engineering, and process management. In addition, the keynote by Robert Winter on “Establishing 'Architectural Thinking' in Organizations” is also included in this volume.
Download or read book Advanced Models of Cognition for Medical Training and Practice written by David A. Evans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive science is a multidisciplinary science concerned with understanding and utilizing models of cognition. It has spawned a great dealof research on applications such as expert systems and intelligent tutoring systems, and has interacted closely with psychological research. However, it is generally accepted that it is difficult to apply cognitive-scientific models to medical training and practice. This book is based on a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held in Italy in 1991, the purpose of which was to examine the impact ofmodels of cognition on medical training and practice and to outline future research programmes relating cognition and education, and in particular to consider the potential impact of cognitive science on medical training and practice. A major discovery presented in the book is that the research areas related to artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and medical decision making are considerably closer, both conceptually and theoretically, than many of the workshop participants originally thought.
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-06-04 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Dynamic Modeling for Business Management written by Bernard McGarvey and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-04 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.
Download or read book Sixth International Conference on Cognitive Modeling written by Marsha C. Lovett and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-09-15 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Conference on Cognitive Modeling brings together researchers who develop computational models to explain and predict cognitive data. The core theme of the 2004 conference was "Integrating Computational Models," encompassing an integration of diverse data through models of coherent phenomena; integration across modeling approaches; and integration of teaching and modeling. This text presents the proceedings of that conference. The International Conference on Cognitive Modeling 2004 sought to grow the discipline of computational cognitive modeling by providing a sophisticated modeling audience for cutting-edge researchers, in addition to offering a forum for integrating insights across alternative modeling approaches in both basic research and applied settings, and a venue for planning the future growth of the discipline. The meeting included a careful peer-review process of 6-page paper submissions; poster-abstracts to include late-breaking work in the area; prizes for best papers; a doctoral consortium; and competitive modeling symposia that compare and contrast different approaches to the same phenomena.
