Download or read book Policy Uncertainty and Analyst Performance written by Vishal P. Baloria and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by recent high-profile instances of policy uncertainty in the U.S., this study examines whether policy uncertainty affects the forecasting performance of financial analysts. We conjecture that policy uncertainty increases the complexity of the forecasting task for analysts, resulting in less accurate earnings forecasts. We find robust evidence that forecast accuracy decreases in the presence of policy uncertainty. We also document that the negative association between forecast accuracy and policy uncertainty is more pronounced when policy uncertainty is particularly high and when firms are more sensitive to policy uncertainty. Given the importance of the intermediation role played by financial analysts, these findings have implications for understanding factors that affect information dissemination in capital markets.
Download or read book Stress Test written by Timothy F. Geithner and published by Crown. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New York Times Bestseller Washington Post Bestseller Los Angeles Times Bestseller Stress Test is the story of Tim Geithner’s education in financial crises. As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then as President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner helped the United States navigate the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, from boom to bust to rescue to recovery. In a candid, riveting, and historically illuminating memoir, he takes readers behind the scenes of the crisis, explaining the hard choices and politically unpalatable decisions he made to repair a broken financial system and prevent the collapse of the Main Street economy. This is the inside story of how a small group of policy makers—in a thick fog of uncertainty, with unimaginably high stakes—helped avoid a second depression but lost the American people doing it. Stress Test is also a valuable guide to how governments can better manage financial crises, because this one won’t be the last. Stress Test reveals a side of Secretary Geithner the public has never seen, starting with his childhood as an American abroad. He recounts his early days as a young Treasury official helping to fight the international financial crises of the 1990s, then describes what he saw, what he did, and what he missed at the New York Fed before the Wall Street boom went bust. He takes readers inside the room as the crisis began, intensified, and burned out of control, discussing the most controversial episodes of his tenures at the New York Fed and the Treasury, including the rescue of Bear Stearns; the harrowing weekend when Lehman Brothers failed; the searing crucible of the AIG rescue as well as the furor over the firm’s lavish bonuses; the battles inside the Obama administration over his widely criticized but ultimately successful plan to end the crisis; and the bracing fight for the most sweeping financial reforms in more than seventy years. Secretary Geithner also describes the aftershocks of the crisis, including the administration’s efforts to address high unemployment, a series of brutal political battles over deficits and debt, and the drama over Europe’s repeated flirtations with the economic abyss. Secretary Geithner is not a politician, but he has things to say about politics—the silliness, the nastiness, the toll it took on his family. But in the end, Stress Test is a hopeful story about public service. In this revealing memoir, Tim Geithner explains how America withstood the ultimate stress test of its political and financial systems.
Download or read book The world price of earnings opacity written by Uptal Bhattacharya and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book Financial Planning Analysis and Performance Management written by Jack Alexander and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Critical insights for savvy financial analysts Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management is the essential desk reference for CFOs, FP&A professionals, investment banking professionals, and equity research analysts. With thought-provoking discussion and refreshing perspective, this book provides insightful reference for critical areas that directly impact an organization’s effectiveness. From budgeting and forecasting, analysis, and performance management, to financial communication, metrics, and benchmarking, these insights delve into the cornerstones of business and value drivers. Dashboards, graphs, and other visual aids illustrate complex concepts and provide reference at a glance, while the author’s experience as a CFO, educator, and general manager leads to comprehensive and practical analytical techniques for real world application. Financial analysts are under constant pressure to perform at higher and higher levels within the realm of this consistently challenging function. Though areas ripe for improvement abound, true resources are scarce—until now. This book provides real-world guidance for analysts ready to: Assess performance of FP&A function and develop improvement program Improve planning and forecasting with new and provocative thinking Step up your game with leading edge analytical tools and practical solutions Plan, analyze and improve critical business and value drivers Build analytical capability and effective presentation of financial information Effectively evaluate capital investments in uncertain times The most effective analysts are those who are constantly striving for improvement, always seeking new solutions, and forever in pursuit of enlightening resources with real, useful information. Packed with examples, practical solutions, models, and novel approaches, Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management is an invaluable addition to the analyst’s professional library. Access to a website with many of the tools introduced are included with the purchase of the book.
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Behaviour written by Xun Lei and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how the Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) new measure capturing economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is related to stock market performance in the United States. We use a variety of methods to estimate different specifications. We find that an increase in the EPU index negatively affects the S&P500 returns and raises its implied volatility. However, there is no evidence to support that an increase in the EPU has a significant influence on dividend growth. Furthermore, the component of the EPU that has the strongest explanatory power is that based on newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, while the other three components lack statistical significance. These findings suggest that the news information is an economically important risk factor for a financial market. This study also provides some further discussion on characteristics portfolio and predictability of cash flow and discount rate. Governments should try to maintain policy stability and sustainability, so that investors can make reasonable predictions about policy changes and arrange their investment planning accordingly. Moreover, investors should also pay attention to expectations of policy change and adjust their portfolios based on policy uncertainty exposure.
Download or read book Reducing Uncertainty written by Thomas Fingar and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-20 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Download or read book Trade Credit and Bank Credit written by Inessa Love and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand "--World Bank web site.
Download or read book New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty written by Sandile Hlatshwayo and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring its magnitude and changes over time. In this dissertation, I leverage the recent advent of global news aggregators to directly identify and measure policy uncertainty shocks based on ``news chatter'' in the press. Unlike previously used measures of economic uncertainty (e.g., strike days or exchange rate volatility), ``news chatter'' uncertainty indices pick up economic volatility as well as the threat or anticipation of volatility stemming from policy uncertainty, whether or not it comes to fruition. The more holistic character of such measures allows for a more nuanced examination of uncertainty's impact on firm decisions and outcomes. After constructing novel measures of policy uncertainty, I then explore how they translate into economic outcomes that extend beyond the traditional investment channel. In Chapter 1, I offer new insights into the channels policy uncertainty operates through by constructing a novel and rich dataset of type-specific policy uncertainty indices and leveraging previously unexamined variation in firm-level exposure to external markets to create firm-specific measures of policy uncertainty. Specifically, I exploit variation in firms' exposure to external markets to construct a firm-level measure of policy uncertainty. The approach both highlights a new channel for policy uncertainty and allows for stronger causal identification of the effects of policy uncertainty on economic performance. As part of this effort, I refine prior approaches to measuring policy uncertainty and distinguish between generic, fiscal, monetary, and trade policy uncertainty. I find that firms with greater exposure to external markets tend to experience larger declines in investment, sales, profits, and employment when fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty increase. Unexpectedly, increases in trade policy uncertainty appear to have a positive impact on exports for exposed firms. Both sets of findings can be rationalized in a standard model of firm investment under uncertainty. In particular, I present evidence that exposed firms may perceive increased uncertainty around trade agreement negotiations as a signal that negative outcomes are less likely in the near-term, incentivizing immediate investments. Historically, exchange rate depreciation makes a country's exports more competitive and cheaper, increasing its exports. Since the end of the Great Recession, many countries have seen this relationship weaken. In Chapter 2, I advance policy uncertainty as a new explanation for such dilutions in the relationship between exchange rates and export performance. Using South Africa as a case study, I find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. In Chapter 3, I examine a more extreme version of policy uncertainty--regime uncertainty. In 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an indictment against six of Kenya's foremost leaders for crimes against humanity related to 2008 post-election violence. I find strong evidence that firms connected to the accused experienced declines in valuations during ICC shocks, with particularly negative revaluations for firms with highly public links to the accused. The results suggest that the negative effects of regime uncertainty outweighed any positive ``rule of law'' shock that the ICC's intervention might have provided to firms. Together the studies provide new insights on the connections between policy uncertainty and weak aggregate economic performance. In addition to offering more nuance for policy directives, the results will help discipline future theoretical efforts to more accurately model complex dynamics in modern open economies.
Download or read book Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning written by Carl Patton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-26 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.
Download or read book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery written by Lee E. Ohanian and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on 2013-09-01 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the reasons for the unprecedented weak recovery following the recent US recession and explores the possibility that government economic policy is the problem. Drawing on empirical research that looks at issues from policy uncertainty to increased regulation, the volume offers a broad-based assessment of how government policies are slowing economic growth and provides a framework for understanding how those policies should change to restore prosperity in America.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Security Metrics written by Andrew Jaquith and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2007-03-26 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Definitive Guide to Quantifying, Classifying, and Measuring Enterprise IT Security Operations Security Metrics is the first comprehensive best-practice guide to defining, creating, and utilizing security metrics in the enterprise. Using sample charts, graphics, case studies, and war stories, Yankee Group Security Expert Andrew Jaquith demonstrates exactly how to establish effective metrics based on your organization’s unique requirements. You’ll discover how to quantify hard-to-measure security activities, compile and analyze all relevant data, identify strengths and weaknesses, set cost-effective priorities for improvement, and craft compelling messages for senior management. Security Metrics successfully bridges management’s quantitative viewpoint with the nuts-and-bolts approach typically taken by security professionals. It brings together expert solutions drawn from Jaquith’s extensive consulting work in the software, aerospace, and financial services industries, including new metrics presented nowhere else. You’ll learn how to: • Replace nonstop crisis response with a systematic approach to security improvement • Understand the differences between “good” and “bad” metrics • Measure coverage and control, vulnerability management, password quality, patch latency, benchmark scoring, and business-adjusted risk • Quantify the effectiveness of security acquisition, implementation, and other program activities • Organize, aggregate, and analyze your data to bring out key insights • Use visualization to understand and communicate security issues more clearly • Capture valuable data from firewalls and antivirus logs, third-party auditor reports, and other resources • Implement balanced scorecards that present compact, holistic views of organizational security effectiveness
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book Underwater Acoustics written by Richard P. Hodges and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-28 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering complete and comprehensive coverage of modern sonar spectrum system analysis, Underwater Acoustics: Analysis, Design and Performance of Sonar provides a state-of-the-art introduction to the subject and has been carefully structured to offer a much-needed update to the classic text by Urick. Expanded to included computational approaches to the topic, this book treads the line between the highly theoretical and mathematical texts and the more populist, non-mathematical books that characterize the existing literature in the field. The author compares and contrasts different techniques for sonar design, analysis and performance prediction and includes key experimental and theoretical results, pointing the reader towards further detail with extensive references. Practitioners in the field of sonar design, analysis and performance prediction as well as graduate students and researchers will appreciate this new reference as an invaluable and timely contribution to the field. Chapters include the sonar equation, radiated, self and ambient noise, active sonar sources, transmission loss, reverberation, transducers, active target strength, statistical detection theory, false alarms, contacts and targets, variability and uncertainty, modelling detections and tactical decision aids, cumulative probability of detection, tracking target motion analysis and localization, and design and evaluation of sonars
