Download or read book Over reactions in Analysts Long term Earnings Growth Forecasts and Their Implications for Market Anomalies written by Aili Li and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Examining the Impacts of Regulation on Long term Earnings Growth Forecasts written by Bennett Salvatora and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The following study analyzes the accuracy and bias of sell-side equity analyst's long-term earnings per share growth forecasts. Having a firm understanding of the accuracy of analyst's long-term earnings per share estimates is vital for any professionals using such forecasts when performing financial valuation, estimating cost of capital, and making investment decisions. By comparing long-term earnings per share growth rate estimates to actual earnings per share growth rates observed, both the accuracy and bias of forecasts were evaluated.Specifically, this study was focused on discovering whether analysts' estimates have improved over time. Even with the implementation of recent regulatory reforms aimed to improve the bias and inaccuracy of analyst forecasts, this study found no significant evidence that such changes have been helpful in improving the accuracy or continued upward bias that exists in long-term earnings per share growth rate estimates. Recognition of this persistent bias and inaccuracy of long-term earnings per share growth rate estimates is vital for all market participants to understand and take into consideration in order to make prudent investment decisions.
Download or read book The E P Effect and the Earnings Forecast Error Effect written by Jeehong Kim and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Do Financial Analysts Long Term Growth Forecasts Matter Evidence from Stock Recommendations and Career Outcomes written by Boochun Jung and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior literature refers to economic incentives to generate investment banking business and trading commissions as explanations for analyst publication of forecasts of firms' long-term earnings growth (LTG). Prior research also documents wildly optimistic LTG forecasts and a negative relation between LTG forecasts and subsequent excess returns. Thus, the literature portrays analysts' LTG forecasts as nonsensical from a valuation perspective. We introduce and investigate a new perspective on the value-relevance of analyst publication of LTG forecasts. We hypothesize that analysts issuing LTG forecasts signal relatively high effort and ability in developing perspective of the subject firms' long-term prospects. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the stock market responds more strongly to the stock recommendation revisions of analysts who publish accompanying LTG forecasts. In addition, we hypothesize and find that analysts issuing LTG forecasts are less likely to leave the profession or move to smaller brokerage houses. Consistent with Reg. FD's intention to restrict analyst access to insider information and promote fundamental analysis of the valuation implications of firms' long-term prospects, we find that post-Reg. FD observations drive most of our results. Overall, we identify previously undocumented benefits accruing to analysts who publish LTG forecasts.
Download or read book How Does the Market Interpret Analysts Long term Growth Forecasts written by Steven Alan Sharpe and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation written by Steven Alan Sharpe and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Market Response to Revisions in Analysts Future Years Earnings Forecasts written by Gregory Alan Sommers and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Questions have been raised in the business press and prior academic research about future years' earnings forecast credibility, particularly long-term growth. This paper documents the market response to revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts for the next year and long-term growth (collectively "future years' earnings"). First, I show there is information content in future years' earnings forecast revisions as evidenced by changes in return volatility and volume at their release. Second, there is a direct market response to the magnitudes of the revisions in the next years' earnings forecasts and to upward revisions in long-term growth forecasts as evidenced by the coefficient relating the unexpected returns to the unexpected portion of the revisions. Finally, I find that investors use the next year earnings forecasts interpret the expected persistence of current year earnings forecast revisions. This is evidenced by increases (decreases) in the coefficient relating unexpected returns to the current year earnings forecast revisions when the next year earnings forecast revision is in the same (opposite) direction. This study documents market response to future years' earnings forecast revisions and indicates that they affect how investors respond to the revisions in current year earnings forecasts.
Download or read book Analysts Overreaction underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior written by Jeffery Abarbanell and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Gatekeepers written by Yasuyuki Fuchita and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2007-02-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research publication Developed country capital markets have devised a set of institutions and actors to help provide investors with timely and accurate information they need to make informed investment decisions. These actors have become known as "financial gatekeepers" and include auditors, financial analysts, and credit rating agencies. Corporate financial reporting scandals in the United States and elsewhere in recent years, however, have called into question the sufficiency of the legal framework governing these gatekeepers. Policymakers have since responded by imposing a series of new obligations, restrictions, and punishments—all with the purpose of strengthening investor confidence in these important actors. Financial Gatekeepers provides an in-depth look at these new frameworks, especially in the United States and Japan. How have they worked? Are further refinements appropriate? These are among the questions addressed in this timely and important volume. Contributors include Leslie Boni (University of New Mexico), Barry Bosworth (Brookings Institution), Tomoo Inoue (Seikei University), Zoe-Vonna Palmrose (University of Southern California), Frank Partnoy (University of San Diego School of Law), George Perry (Brookings Institution), Justin Pettit (UBS), Paul Stevens (Investment Company Institute), Peter Wallison (American Enterprise Institute).
Download or read book Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis written by Augustin Landier and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. Downward revisions have been sharp, mostly focused on 2020, 2021 and 2022, but much less drastic than the lower bound estimated by Gormsen and Koijen (2020). Analyst forecasts do not exhibit evidence of over-reaction: As of mid-May, forecasts over 2020 earnings have progressively been reduced by 16%. Longer-run forecasts, as well as expected "Long-Term Growth" have reacted much less than short-run forecasts, and feature less disagreement. Second, we ask how much discount rate changes explain market dynamics, in an exercise similar to Shiller (1981). Given forecast revisions and price movements, we estimate an implicit discount rate going from 10% in mid-February, to 13% at the end of March, back down to their initial level in mid-May. We then decompose discount rate changes into three factors: changes in unlevered asset risk premium (0%), increased leverage (+1%) and interest rate reduction (-1%). Overall, analyst forecast revisions explain all of the decrease in equity values between January 2020 and mid May 2020, but they do not explain shorter term movements.
Download or read book Individual Analysts Earnings Forecasts written by Dimitris Kenourgios and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an analysis of two forms of overreaction (generalized overreaction and overreaction to prior earnings changes) in analysts' earnings forecasts for the UK stock market, using a sample of individual forecasts of earning per share from a British investment bank over the period 1989-2002. Given that previous UK empirical research over 1980s and mid '90s has provided limited and contradictory findings, we investigate whether and how overreaction of analysts forecasts varies across forecast horizons, firm size (small and large) and growth opportunities (high and low P/E ratio) in order to provide further and comparable evidence. Overall, our findings support the generalized overreaction hypothesis but reject the firm size effect, the overreaction for high P/E ratio companies and the higher overreaction regarding the forecasting horizon.
Download or read book Are Markets Rational written by Seung-Woog Kwag and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extrapolation Bias in Explaining the Asset Growth Anomaly written by Hyungjin Cho and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using analysts' multi-period earnings forecasts, this paper investigates whether analyst forecast errors are related to asset growth and, if so, to what extent analysts' optimism for high-growth firms can explain the asset growth anomaly. We find that analyst forecasts are more optimistic for firms with high asset growth, particularly for longer-term forecasts (e.g., two- and three-year-ahead forecasts than one-year-ahead forecasts). We also find that analysts' optimism for high-growth firms is more pronounced for (1) firms that have maintained similar levels of growth in recent periods, (2) firms with higher information uncertainty, and (3) forecasts with longer forecast horizons (e.g., forecasts issued far before fiscal year end). Adding forecast errors to a growth-return regression substantially reduces the coefficient on asset growth, suggesting an important role of forecast errors in the growth anomaly. Path analysis suggests that analysts' long-term forecast errors, but not short-term forecast errors, are important mediators through which biased expectations about asset growth are incorporated into stock returns. Overall, our findings support the extrapolation bias explanation for the asset growth anomaly.
Download or read book Analysts Forecast Dispersion and Stock Market Anomalies written by Tingting Liu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that understanding the role of analysts' forecast bias is central to discovering the behavior that causes some stocks to have high analyst forecast dispersion. This finding is important because stocks with high analyst forecast dispersion contribute significantly to many important anomalies. We first explain how forecast bias produces significant negative future returns in the high dispersion portfolio. Next we examine the effect of these stocks on momentum returns, the profitability anomaly, and post-earnings announcement drift. Finally, we examine the performance of four asset pricing models focusing on the model's ability to explain the returns to these high dispersion stocks.
Download or read book Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data written by Peter Easton and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2009 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Download or read book The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies written by Leonard Zacks and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-24 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.
Download or read book Stock Market Anomalies written by Elroy Dimson and published by CUP Archive. This book was released on 1988-03-17 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
