Download or read book On the Evaluation of Finite Time Ruin Probabilities in a Dependent Risk Model written by Dimitrina Dimitrova and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper establishes some enlightening connections between the explicit formulas of the finite-time ruin probability established by Ignatov and Kaishev (2000, 2004) and Ignatov et al. (2001) for a risk model allowing dependence. The numerical properties of these formulas are investigated and efficient algorithms for computing ruin probability with prescribed accuracy are presented. Extensive numerical comparisons and examples are provided.Research on ruin probability beyond the classical risk model has intensified in recent years. More general ruin probability models assuming dependence between claim amounts and/or claim arrivals and non-linear aggregate premium income have been considered in the actuarial and applied probability literature. Such models are better suited to reflect the dependence in the arrival and severity of losses generated by portfolios of insurance policies. Exploring ruin probability theoretically and numerically, under these more general dependence assumptions, is of utmost importance within the Solvency II framework of internal insolvency-risk model building.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities written by S?ren Asmussen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramr?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.
Download or read book A Revisit to Asymptotic Ruin Probabilities for a Bidimensional Renewal Risk Model written by Jinzhu Li and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, Yang and Li (2014, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics) studied a bidimensional renewal risk model with constant force of interest and dependent subexponential claims. Under the special Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern dependence structure and a technical moment condition on the claim-number process, they derived an asymptotic expansion for the finite-time ruin probability. In this paper, we show that their result can be extended to a much more general dependence structure without any extra condition on the renewal claim-number process. We also give some asymptotic expansions for the corresponding infinite-time ruin probability within the scope of extended regular variation.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities written by S?ren Asmussen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2000 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The text is a treatment of classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramer-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (for example, for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation or periodicity. Special features of the book are the emphasis on change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas like queueing theory.
Download or read book Asymptotic Behavior of Finite Time Ruin Probability in a By claim Risk Model with Constant Interest Rate written by Lei Wang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities written by Yuliya Mishura and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ruin Probabilities: Smoothness, Bounds, Supermartingale Approach deals with continuous-time risk models and covers several aspects of risk theory. The first of them is the smoothness of the survival probabilities. In particular, the book provides a detailed investigation of the continuity and differentiability of the infinite-horizon and finite-horizon survival probabilities for different risk models. Next, it gives some possible applications of the results concerning the smoothness of the survival probabilities. Additionally, the book introduces the supermartingale approach, which generalizes the martingale one introduced by Gerber, to get upper exponential bounds for the infinite-horizon ruin probabilities in some generalizations of the classical risk model with risky investments. Provides new original results Detailed investigation of the continuity and differentiability of the infinite-horizon and finite-horizon survival probabilities, as well as possible applications of these results An excellent supplement to current textbooks and monographs in risk theory Contains a comprehensive list of useful references
Download or read book On Discrete Time Risk Models with Dependence Based on Integer Valued Time Series Processes written by Jiahui Li and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "On Discrete-time Risk Models With Dependence Based on Integer-valued Time Series Processes" by Jiahui, Li, 黎嘉慧, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In the actuarial literature, dependence structures in risk models have been extensively studied. The main theme of this thesis is to investigate some discrete-time risk models with claim numbers modeled by integer-valued time series processes. The first model is a common shock risk model with temporal dependence between the claim numbers in each individual class of business. Specifically the Poisson MA(1) process and Poisson AR(1) process are considered for the temporal dependence. To study the ruin probability, the equations associated with the adjustment coefficients are derived. Comparisons are also made to assess the impact of the dependence structures on the ruin probability. Another model involving both the correlated classes of business and the time series approach is then studied. Thinning dependence structure is adopted to model the dependence among classes of business. The Poisson MA(1) and Poisson AR(1) processes are used to describe the claim-number processes. Adjustment coefficients and ruin probabilities are examined. Finally a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following a Poisson ARCH process is proposed. In this model, the mean of the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the effect of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on several risk measures including ruin probability, Value at Risk, and conditional tail expectation. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4852187 Subjects: Time-series analysis Risk (Insurance) - Statistical methods
Download or read book Ruin Theory Under a Threshold Insurance Risk Model written by Kwok-Man Kwan and published by . This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Ruin Theory Under a Threshold Insurance Risk Model" by Kwok-man, Kwan, 關國文, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of the thesis entitled RUIN THEORY UNDER A THRESHOLD INSURANCE RISK MODEL submitted by Kwan, Kwok Man for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in April 2007 Since the classical Lundberg model was studied in 1903, there have been many studies about the generalization of the classical insurance risk model. The most popular ones are the Sparre-Anderson model, the Markov-modulated model and the di(R)usion-perturbed model. Recently, more and more attentions have been paid to the dependent models. The risk models with dependent claim sizes and the common shock models with di(R)erent lines of business have been studied by many authors. This thesis studies two risk models with dependence between claim size and inter-arrivaltimethroughathresholdstructure.Intherstinsuranceriskmodel, the distribution of the inter-arrival time depends on the last claim size: when the lastclaimsizeisbelowathreshold, thecurrentinter-arrivaltimefollowsacertain probability distribution; otherwise, it follows another probability distribution. Inthe second insurance risk model, its dependence relation is the reversal of the previous one, that is: when the last inter-arrival time is below a threshold, the current claim size follows a certain probability distribution; otherwise, it follows another probability distribution. It was found that the ruin probability became a dicult problem when the model involved these dependent structures. In order to obtain the solution of the ultimate ruin probability for these de- pendent models, the integro-di(R)erential equation, the integral equation and the Laplace transform satised by the ruin probability were derived and the explicit formula of the ruin probability was obtained in the case of exponential claim size. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3832003 Subjects: Risk (Insurance) - Mathematical models Probabilities
Download or read book On Numerical Evaluation of Finite Time Ruin Probabilities written by David C. M. Dickson and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities 2nd Edition written by Soren Asmussen and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2010-09-14 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber-Shiu functions and dependence.
Download or read book Robustness Analysis and Convergence of Empirical Finite time Ruin Probabilities and Estimation Risk Solvency Margin written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider the classical risk model and carry out a sensitivity and robustness analysis of finite-time ruin probabilities. We provide algorithms to compute the related influence functions. We also prove the weak convergence of a sequence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities starting from zero initial reserve toward a Gaussian random variable. We define the concepts of reliable finite-time ruin probability as a Value-at-Risk of the estimator of the finite-time ruin probability. To control this robust risk measure, an additional initial reserve is needed and called Estimation Risk Solvency Margin (ERSM). We apply our results to show how portfolio experience could be rewarded by cut-offs in solvency capital requirements. An application to catastrophe contamination and numerical examples are also developed.
Download or read book Explicit Finite Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete Dependent Claims written by Zvetan G. Ignatov and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Robust Computation and the Sensitivity Analysis of Finite Time Ruin Probabilities and the Estimation of Risk Based Regulatory Capital written by Mark S. Joshi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prudential regulations require financial institutions to hold initial capital so that the possibility of ruin is very low. An important practical problem is to estimate the regulatory capital so the ruin probability is at the regulatory level, typically less than 0.1% over a finite-time horizon. Estimating probabilities of rare events is challenging, since naïve estimations via direct simulations of the surplus process is time consuming. In this paper, we present a stratification sampling algorithm for estimating finite-time ruin probabilities. We further introduce a sequence of measure changes to remove the pathwise discontinuities of the estimator, and compute unbiased first and second-order derivative estimates of the finite-time ruin probabilities with respect to both distributional and structural parameters. We then estimate the regulatory capital and its sensitivities. These estimates provide information to insurance companies for meeting prudential regulations as well as designing risk management strategies. Numerical examples are presented for the classical risk model, the Sparre Andersen risk model with interest and the periodic risk model with interest to demonstrate the speed and efficacy of our methodology.
Download or read book An Improved Finite Time Ruin Probability Formula and Its Mathematica Implementation written by Tzvetan Ignatov and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An improved version of a ruin probability formula due to Ignatov and Kaishev [Scand. Actu. J. 1 (2000) 46], allowing for the exact evaluation of the finite-time survival probability for discrete, dependent, individual claims, Poisson claim arrivals and arbitrary, increasing premium income function is derived. Its numerical efficiency is studied, using the Mathematica system. Numerical results are provided and computational aspects are discussed. A Mathematica module, realizing the Picard and Lefegrave;vre [Scand. Actu. J. 1 (1997) 58] formula has also been developed and used for numerical investigations.
Download or read book Modern Problems of Stochastic Analysis and Statistics written by Vladimir Panov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-21 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities with Dependent Forces of Interest written by Xiaoyu Mu and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, annuity-due and annuity-immediate discrete time risk models are introduced and ruin probabilities in these two models under dependent forces of interest are discussed. Recursive and Integral equations for these ruin probabilities are given. Inequalities for the ruin probability estimation are derived by an inductive approach. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of these results.
Download or read book Ruin Probabilities and Related Quantities in the Renewal Risk Model with Dependence and Time Delay in Claims Settlement written by Kokou Essiomle and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
