Download or read book On the Dynamics of Growth and Debt written by Casper van Ewijk and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1991 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The strong rise in public debt has been one of the main concerns for economic policy in the recent period. This book provides a theoretical analysis of the dynamics of public debt. It analyses the impact of accumulating debt on the stability of the economy, and examines the implications of several alternative budgetary regimes. In contrast to most analyses of the dynamics of government finance, which start from the neo-classical equilibrium approach, this analysis is inspired by the post-Keynesian theory of disequilibrium growth. It develops a coherent microeconomic model of the growth of the firm in the presence of imperfect capital markets and equity rationing. On the basis of this model the medium-term and long-term dynamics are examined with special reference to the accumulation of public debt and the distribution of income and wealth within the private sector.

Download or read book On the Dynamics of Growth and Debt written by Casper van Ewijk and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Public Debt and Economic Growth written by Alfred Greiner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.

Download or read book The Dynamics of Government Debt and Economic Growth written by Vighneswara Swamy and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Public Debt Dynamics written by Reda Cherif and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.

Download or read book Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles written by Willi Semmler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-08 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.

Download or read book Lost and Found written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.

Download or read book The Debt growth Dynamics of Developing Countries written by Xiaoyun Wang and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Resources Financial Risk and the Dynamics of Growth written by Roberto Pasqualino and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-19 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging from the interaction between economic growth and environmental limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case for a government led system change within this decade, where the market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and sustainable development.

Download or read book Economic Growth After Debt Surges written by João Tovar Jalles and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic, and surged further in 2020. The high indebteness raises concerns whether it will undermine future growth prospects. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by examining what happens to economic growth after debt surges. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of debt surges in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020. Our results show that the relationship between debt surges and economic growth are complex. Debt surges tend to be followed by weaker economic growth and persistently lower output. However, this negative relationship does not always hold. Surges in public debt tend to have the most negative impact on future growth prospects. This is particularly the case if the economy is already operating with a large positive output gap. Debt surges also tend to be followed by weaker economic growth if the initial debt levels are high, especially for private debt surges. Our results also show how debt surges impact future growth. Public debt surges are associated with especially weaker private and public investment, although both private and public consumption are also negatively affected. Surges in corporate debt are followed by lower private and public investment.

Download or read book Public Debt and Endogenous Growth written by Michael Bräuninger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers public debt dynamics in various endogenous growth mod els, namely the AK model and explicit models of innovation and human cap ital accumulation. Furthermore, the closed economy, the small open economy and a two-country world are analysed. In the closed economy model, the focus is on budget deficit and public debt dynamics and their influence on capital growth and output growth. Then, in the open economy model, the effects on foreign debt growth are considered. In a two-country setting, public debt growth in one country affects growth in the other country. In each scenario the government either fixes the deficit ratio or the tax rate. For both strategies the steady state is derived and stability is analysed. Then, dynamics induced by various shocks and policy measures are explored. Many diagrams illustrate the dynamics. I greatly benefited from comments by Michael Carlberg. In addition, Alkis Otto and Justus Haucap discussed with me many parts of the book. I wish to thank them all. Hamburg, February 2003 Michael Briiuninger Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Part I The Closed Economy with AK Production 2 The Solow Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . 2. 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2. 2 Fixing the Deficit Ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . 2. 2. 1 The Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . 2. 2. 2 Stability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2. 2. 3 Some Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . . . . 2. 2. 4 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3 Fixing the Tax Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . 2. 3. 1 The Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3. 2 Stability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2. 3. 3 Some Shocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . 2. 3. 4 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Download or read book What Really Drives Public Debt written by Pablo Anaya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a novel approach to detail the propagation of shocks to public debt. The modeling technique involves a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimator with an endogenous debt accumulation equation. It explores how the main drivers of sovereign debt dynamics—the primary balance, the interest rate, growth and inflation—interact with each other. Such analysis is particularly useful for debt sustainability analysis. We find that some interactions exacerbate the impact of shocks to the accumulation of debt, while others act to stabilize debt dynamics. Furthermore, the choice of monetary policy regime plays an important role in these debt dynamics – countries with constrained monetary policy are more at risk from changes in market sentiment and must rely much more on fiscal policy to constrain debt.

Download or read book Public Debt in Developing Countries written by Indermit Singh Gill and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Over the past 25 years, significant levels of public debt and external finance are more likely to have enhanced macroeconomic vulnerability than economic growth in developing countries. This applies not just to countries with a history of high inflation and past default, but also to those in East Asia, with a long tradition of prudent macroeconomic policies and rapid growth. The authors examine why with the help of a conceptual framework drawn from the growth, capital flows, and crisis literature for developing countries with access to the international capital markets (market access countries or MACs). They find that, while the chances of another generalized debt crisis have receded since the turbulence of the late 1990s, sovereign debt is indeed constraining growth in MACs, especially those with debt sustainability problems ... " -- Cover verso.

Download or read book This Time They Are Different written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.

Download or read book Is There a Debt threshold Effect on Output Growth written by Mr.Alexander Chudik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-08 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965- 2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers in the long run.