Download or read book Objective lightning probability forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station phase IV written by William H. Bauman and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Phase III written by Winifred C. Crawford and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Analysis of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station written by Eric C. Muller and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have conducted climate analyses of natural lightning activity at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). These analyses were conducted to improve forecasts of lightning related hazards for, and the planning of, space vehicle launches at KSC/CCAFS. If a space vehicle is hit by lightning during launch, the vehicle and payload may sustain irreparable damage. Lightning-based rules for conducting launch and vehicle preparation activities have been developed by launch managers at KSC/CCAFS. In this research, we investigated one aspect of these--the natural lightning launch commit criteria. Our goal was to improve the scientific basis for skillful forecasting of the probability of lightning hazards. Such forecasts have the potential to reduce lightning related risks to personnel and equipment, and to save millions of dollars in preparation and launch costs. Using cloud-to-ground lightning strike data from the National Lightning Detection Network during January 1989 through December 2008, we identified events in which the KSC/CCAFS natural lightning criteria for launches were violated--that is, when excessive lightning activity prevented or would have prevented launches from occurring. Based on these events, we developed daily and multi-day probabilities of lightning violations. We also developed and applied an objective statistical method for determining the seasonality of lightning and for identifying six lightning violation seasons through the course of the calendar year. These seasons were used as the basis for characterizing the temporal and spatial patterns associated with climate scale variations in lightning at KSC/CCAFS. We used atmospheric reanalysis data to analyze the physical processes that lead to interannual variability in: (a) lightning violations in each season; and (b) the start and end dates of the main lightning season. These analyses led to the identification of regional and global scale processes that tend to alter the probability of lightning violations, including: (1) shifts in the strength, latitude, and zonal extent of the Bermuda High; (2) alterations of regional scale divergence and convection, and (3) teleconnections to global scale climate variations. Several of these processes tend to be important in all or most of the six lightning violation seasons. The results of this study help form the foundation for improvements in the analysis and forecasting of natural lightning violations, and in the planning of launches at KSC/CCAFS.
Download or read book Lightning and the space program written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Objective lightning probability forecasts for east central Florida airports written by Winifred C. Crawford and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Techniques for Forecasting the Cessation of Lightning at Cape Canaveral Air Station and the Kennedy Space Center written by Michael W. Holmes and published by . This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this research effort is directed toward identifying new methods of forecasting the cessation of lightning along the Central Atlantic Coast of Florida. Cloud-to-ground lightning flashes place Air Force (AF) personnel and assets at risk almost daily at this location. Providing a more accurate method of forecasting the cessation of lightning would allow for safer and more efficient execution of AF operations. A data set consisting of 40 thunderstorm cases was identified within a 90 nautical miles (nmi) region surrounding the Melbourne, Florida WSR-88D (KMLB) site. Each case falls between the months of May and September and the years of 1995 through 1997. Simple and multiple linear regression models are built using this dataset. Variables included max Vertically Integrated Liquid water (VIL), max reflectivity, max peak current, peak cumulative flash rate, peak negative flash rate, and peak positive flash rate. Results indicate that three of the simple linear regression models to some extent accurately represent the data. Additionally, when the data set is separated by thunderstorm cell type (multi or single) and cell specific regressions are built, results indicate that the regressions based on the single-cell data set produce a substantial increase in forecast skill compared to that of climatology. In fact, some regressions are shown to improve forecast accuracy by 90% over that of climatology. Moreover, multiple linear regression models are shown to produce similar results and further reinforce the notion that each thunderstorm cell type (multi or single) behaves substantially different from the other with respect to forecasting the cessation of lightning.
Download or read book A Probabilistic Facility Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-01-14 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collisionith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology. NASA/TM-2012-216308 Huddleston, Lisa L. and Roeder, William p. and Merceret, Francis J. Kennedy Space Center
Download or read book First Cloud To Ground Lightning Timing Study written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-01-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS t
Download or read book Determining the Characteristics of Anvil and Thunderstorm Lightning for Use in the Lightning Launch Control Criteria at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center written by Zachary Tamurian and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: The 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) provides weather support to America's space program at Florida's Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB). Since CCAFS/KSC lies within Florida's "Lightning Alley", summer thunderstorms and associated hazards are a special concern for space launches and all other outdoor activities at CCAFS/KSC. Therefore, the 45WS has developed the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) to help minimize hazards from lightning (both naturally occurring and triggered) and vehicle electrification during the ascent phase of launch. This study has documented the spatial distributions and time evolution of total lightning and radar reflectivity in and around thunderstorms, attached anvil clouds, and detached anvil clouds near CCAFS/KSC on 30 active lightning days between 2008-11. Our goal was to determine if some of the current LLCC thresholds are too restrictive and represent missed launch opportunities, or not restrictive enough and represent a safety risk. CG flashes originating inside the convective core or its anvil can strike the ground away from the cloud edge. Since these side flashes often strike the ground under clear skies, they commonly are referred to as "bolts from the blue". Our results indicate that the vast majority of CG flashes (~94%) strike the ground = 5 n mi from cloud edge (0 dBZ) whereas 73% of CG flashes are = 3 n mi outside 0 dBZ. Three positive bolts from the blue were documented, and all came from the same storm on 29 May 2009. One of the positive flashes propagated 8.91 n mi from cloud edge. Anvil initiated lightning can distribute charge after detachment, but only for a short period. We analyzed 100 anvils within 100 km of KSC; 895 IC flashes in the anvil were initiated in the core of the storms. The first core initiated flash of each anvil typically propagated = 10 n mi. Cellular thunderstorms produce the greatest percentage of total lightning (~84%) in our dataset, but average flash distances from the core are greatest in attached anvils (~4.98 n mi). To our knowledge this is the first study to quantify the distances that lightning can extend beyond the edge of clouds. We believe the results of this research should be considered before making additional changes to the LLCC.
Download or read book Analysis and Assessment of Peak Lightning Current Probabilities at the NASA Kennedy Space Center written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-09-18 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical memorandum presents a summary by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch at the Marshall Space Flight Center of lightning characteristics and lightning criteria for the protection of aerospace vehicles. Probability estimates are included for certain lightning strikes (peak currents of 200, 100, and 50 kA) applicable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during rollout, on-pad, and boost/launch phases. Results of an extensive literature search to compile information on this subject are presented in order to answer key questions posed by the Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center concerning peak lightning current probabilities if a vehicle is hit by a lightning cloud-to-ground stroke. Vehicle-triggered lightning probability estimates for the aforementioned peak currents are still being worked. Section 4.5, however, does provide some insight on estimating these same peaks.Johnson, D. L. and Vaughan, W. W.Marshall Space Flight CenterLIGHTNING; ELECTRICITY; PROBABILITY THEORY; NASA PROGRAMS; SPACE SHUTTLES; AEROSPACE VEHICLES; LAUNCHING BASES
Download or read book Reader s Digest Magazine 02 10 written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Characteristics of Decaying Storms During Lightning Cessation at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station written by Holly Alison Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT: Although most storms experienced gradually decaying flash rates until cessation, two other cessation behaviors also were observed, making flash activity an unreliable indicator of cessation. Trends in composite reflectivity, reflectivity at three temperatures crucial to storm electrification (i.e., 0°C, -10°C, -20°C), storm thickness of 30 dBZ above -10°C, and vertical gradients of reflectivity were analyzed for 20 storms during the 8 min period prior to cessation to determine if any indicated imminent cessation. Results showed substantial variability in the decaying storms. Although these parameters decreased in most storms during the 8 min period, some increased. Distributions of the parameters at the last flash also were considered, but no clearly preferred value was evident at the last flash. Neither the inversion of lightning initiation criteria (e.g., 40 dBZ at -10°C) nor the descent of 45 dBZ below -10°C were found to be a useful indicator of cessation. Previously-documented lightning "bubbles" of LDAR sources were observed and were consistent with pulses in the intensifying updrafts. The last lightning "bubble" signatures were found to precede lightning cessation by ~35 min.
Download or read book A Probabilistic Facility Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location written by Lisa L. Huddleston and published by BiblioGov. This book was released on 2013-07 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision ith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.
Download or read book Lightning at Kennedy Space Center written by William C. Gibbons and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS) area borders the area of highest frequency of thunderstorms in the United States (Fig. 11). Since the majority of the thunderstorms occur in the summer months, lightning frequencies in the area during these months approach the highest level of any location in the world. This high level of frequency presents three major problems: danger to personnel damage to equipment and property and loss of time in order to minimize the previous items. Two major lightning detection systems currently in use in the KBC/CCAFS area are the Launch Pad Lightning Warning System (LPLWS) and the Lightning Location and Protection (LLP) system. Lightning activity in the KSC/CCAFS area is both a curse and a blessing. The high lightning frequency is a threat to life and slows space vehicle operations. Yet, the presence of numerous lightning strikes as well as sophisticated lightning detection systems make KSC an ideal location for lightning research to perfect lightning detection and protection.
Download or read book Improved ANS Lightning Predictors Using Additional Surface Wind and Electric Field Data written by Donald S. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data. Starr, Stanley O. Kennedy Space Center...
Download or read book Predicting Lightning Events in the KSC Area written by Robert O. Berthel and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
