Download or read book Nonparametric hybrid Phillips Curves based on subjective expectations estimates for the Euro area written by Marco Buchmann and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Role of Expectations in Euro Area Inflation Dynamics written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä.

Download or read book A Bottom Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area written by Thomas McGregor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in forecasting performance during the pandemic period and use these insights to improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent at end-2023, while headline inflation is expected to drop quite sharply over 2023, with energy base effects pulling inflation down from the currently very elevated levels to below 3 percent by 2023q4. The confidence intervals around these projections are wide given elevated uncertainty. We argue that the bottom-up approach offers a useful complement to the forecasters toolbox – even in the current uncertain environment - by improving forecast accuracy, shedding additional light on the drivers of inflation and providing a framework in which to apply ex post judgement in a structured way.

Download or read book Comparing Alternative Phillips Curve Specifications European Results with Survey based Expectations written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, direct measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents' inflation expectations. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward-looking, and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. Consequently, even allowing for possible non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in

Download or read book Updating the Euro Area Phillips Curve written by Sami Oinonen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Download or read book The Phillips Curve in the Euro Area written by Susanne Wellmann and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study whether the trade-off between inflation and unemployment still exists in the euro area (EA). Using country-level data for member states of the EA, we estimate a refined specification of the Phillips curve in the spirit of Hazell et al. (2022) deploying a non-tradable price index to measure inflation. We find that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and hence the Phillips curve is flat in the EA, similarly to the US. Moreover, reference estimates based on aggregate data overstate the steepness of the Phillips curve considerably. Our findings imply that the insensitivity of inflation with respect to unemployment over the last decade is a result of firmly anchored inflation expectations.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics Inthe Euro Area and the Role of Expectations written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä: Euroalueen inflaatiodynamiikka ja odotusten merkitys : lisätuloksia.

Download or read book Nonparametric Estimation and Comparison of the G7 Phillips Curves written by Benjamin Kluge and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03-02 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diploma Thesis from the year 2004 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1, Bielefeld University, language: English, abstract: Ziel der Arbeit ist es den seit langem wissenschaftlich diskutierten Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit, die Phillips-Kurve, mit Hilfe neuer statistischer Methoden zu untersuchen und seine verschiedenen Ausprägungen bei den G7-Staaten miteinander zu vergleichen. Dabei werden zwei weitere Einflüsse, Produktivität und Inflationsklima, miteinbezogen. Der erste Teil führt in die Diskussion der Phillips-Kurve ein. Im Folgenden werden die zur Analyse notwendigen Nichtparametrischen Verfahren vorgestellt und eingehend beschrieben. Die Analyse und der Vergleich der G7-Phillips-Kurven wird im vierten Kapitel durchgeführt. Im Anschluss daran folgt eine Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse und ein Ausblick.

Download or read book Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Jordi Galí and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Galí and Gertler (1999) developed a hybrid variant of the New Keynesian Phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost, expected future inflation and lagged inflation. GMM estimates of the model suggest that forward looking behavior is dominant: The coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation. While the latter differs significantly from zero, it is quantitatively modest. Several authors have suggested that our results are the product of specification bias or suspect estimation methods. Here we show that these claims are incorrect, and that our results are robust to a variety of estimation procedures, including GMM estimation of the closed form, and nonlinear instrumental variables. Also, as we discuss, many others have obtained very similar results to ours using a systems approach, including FIML techniques. Hence, the conclusions of GG and others regarding the importance of forward looking behavior remain robust.

Download or read book Testing for a Forward Looking Phillips Curve written by Eric Jondeau and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve (NKPC) states that inflation has a purely forward-looking dynamics. In this paper, we test whether European and US inflation dynamics can be described by this model. For this purpose, we estimate hybrid Phillips curves, which include both backward and forward-looking components, for major European countries, the euro area, and the US. Estimation is performed using the GMM technique as well as the ML approach. We examine the sensitivity of the results to the choice of output gap or marginal cost as the driving variable, and test the stability of the obtained specifications. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, in all countries, the NKPC has to be augmented by additional lags and leads of inflation, in contrast to the prediction of the core model. Second, the fraction of backward-looking price setters is large (in most cases, more than 50 percent), suggesting only limited differences between the US and the euro area. Finally, our preferred specification includes marginal cost in the case of the US and the UK, and output gap in the euro area.

Download or read book Phillips Curves in the Euro Area written by Laura Moretti and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and structural changes. Using Dynamic Model Averaging, we identify the most important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its probability distribution. We compare the distribution of forecasts performed in recent years, and we assess, in a probabilistic manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation.

Download or read book Monthly Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations and the Stability of the Phillips Curve Relationship written by Markus Roth and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the Phillips curve relationship in the euro area and the U.S. using monthly survey data on expected inflation. The dataset enables us to estimate models of the Phillips curve without assuming rational expectation formation. We find evidence for a Phillips curve relationship consistent with the theory. Furthermore, we show that the Phillips curve relationship is stable with structural regime switches which are of minor importance. Moreover, the Phillips curve relationship has been subject to switches in the shock volatilities.

Download or read book Annual Report written by European Central Bank and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Choosing and Using Payment Instruments written by Ulf von Kalckreuth and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Germans are still very fond of using cash. Of all direct payment transactions, cash accounts for an astounding 82% in terms of number, and for 58% in terms of value. With a new and unique dataset that combines transaction information with survey data on payment behaviour of German consumers, we shed light on how individuals choose payment instruments and why cash remains so important. We propose a two-stage empirical framework which jointly explains credit card ownership and the use of cash. Our results indicate that the pattern of cash usage is compatible with systematic economic decision making. Consumers decide upon the adoption of payment cards and then use available payment media according to their transaction and personal characteristics, the relative costs of cash and card usage, and their assessment of payment instruments' characteristics. Whereas older consumers use significantly more cash, the comparison with younger consumers shows that the difference in payment behaviour is not explained by age as such but to a large extent by differences in the characteristics of these two groups. It is interesting that the possession of a credit card, especially alongside a debit card, does not significantly affect the use of cash in Germany.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""