Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book New Forecasting Methods for an Old Problem written by Emile du Plessis and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A reflection on the lackluster growth over the decade since the Global Financial Crisis has renewed interest in preventative measures for a long-standing problem. Advances in machine learning algorithms during this period present promising forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine learning algorithms to study 147 year of systemic financial crises across 17 countries. It entails 12 leading indicators comprising real, banking and external sectors. Four modelling dimensions encompassing a contemporaneous pooled format through an expanding window, transformations with a lag structure and 20-year rolling window as well as individual format are implemented to assess performance through recursive out-of-sample forecasts. Findings suggest fixed capital formation is the most important variable. GDP per capita and consumer inflation have increased in prominence whereas debt-to-GDP, stock market and consumption were dominant at the turn of the 20th century. Through a lag structure, banking sector predictors on average describe 28 percent of the variation in crisis prevalence, real sector 64 percent and external sector 8 percent. A lag structure and rolling window both improve on optimised contemporaneous and individual country formats. Nearly half of all algorithms reach peak performance through a lag structure. As measured through AUC, F1 and Brier scores, top performing machine learning methods consistently produce high accuracy rates, with both random forests and gradient boosting in front with 77 percent correct forecasts. Top models contribute added value above 20 percentage points in most instances and deals with a high degree of complexity across several countries.
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
Download or read book New Product Forecasting written by Kenneth B. Kahn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book SAS for Forecasting Time Series Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
Download or read book Forecasting Methods for Management written by Steven C. Wheelwright and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fourth edition of this classic source provides an overview of a broad range of forecasting techniques and an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. No background in quantitiative methods is required. The new edition includes greater emphasis on the track record of forecasting, a refined approach to the quantitative methods, new material on monitoring, computer-based systems and empirical evidence of forecasting usage, and a complete update on technological and judgmental methods.
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by David Francis Jordan and published by Literary Licensing, LLC. This book was released on 2014-03-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Is A New Release Of The Original 1921 Edition.
Download or read book Advances in Intelligent Computing Techniques and Applications written by Faisal Saeed and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by Spyros G. Makridakis and published by . This book was released on 1998-01-06 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Download or read book Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting written by Rick Donnelly and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2010 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 406: Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting explores the use of travel modeling and forecasting tools that could represent a significant advance over the current state of practice. The report examines five types of models: activity-based demand, dynamic network, land use, freight, and statewide.
Download or read book Forecasting Profit written by Mike Metcalfe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.
Download or read book FORECASTING METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 3RD ED written by Spyros Makridakis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09 with total page 660 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market_Desc: · Market Researchers· Financial Analysts· Business Planners· Business Economists· Operations Managers· Human Resources Administrators· Business Analysts of various kinds· Other Business Professionals Special Features: · A managerial, business orientation approach is used instead of a mathematical, research focus. Emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.· All data sets used in this text will be available on the Internet.· Coverage now includes the latest techniques used by managers in business today. About The Book: Known from its last editions as the Bible of Forecasting , the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future . In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
