Download or read book New Dynamic Travel Demand Modeling Methods in Advanced Data Collecting Environments written by Hyunmyung Kim and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 1250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand written by Feras El Zarwi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society's environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operations, and energy system improvements only - behavior change is needed. Behavior change does not occur instantaneously, but is rather a gradual process that requires years and even generations to yield the desired outcomes. That is why we need to nudge and guide trends of travel behavior over time in this era of transformative mobility. We should focus on influencing long-range trends of travel behavior to be more sustainable and multimodal via effective policies and investment strategies. Hence, there is a need for developing policy analysis tools that focus on modeling the evolution of trends of travel behavior in response to upcoming transportation services and technologies. Over time, travel choices, attitudes, and social norms will result in changes in lifestyles and travel behavior. That is why understanding dynamic changes of lifestyles and behavior in this era of transformative mobility is central to modeling and influencing trends of travel behavior. Modeling behavioral dynamics and trends is key to assessing how policies and investment strategies can transform cities to provide a higher level of connectivity, attain significant reductions in congestion levels, encourage multimodality, improve economic and environmental health, and ensure equity. This dissertation focuses on addressing limitations of activity-based travel demand models in capturing and predicting trends of travel behavior. Activity-based travel demand models are the commonly-used approach by metropolitan planning agencies to predict 20-30 year forecasts. These include traffic volumes, transit ridership, biking and walking market shares that are the result of large scale transportation investments and policy decisions. Currently, travel demand models are not equipped with a framework that predicts long-range trends in travel behavior for two main reasons. First, they do not entail a mechanism that projects membership and market share of new modes of transport into the future (Uber, autonomous vehicles, carsharing services, etc). Second, they lack a dynamic framework that could enable them to model and forecast changes in lifestyles and transport modality styles. Modeling the evolution and dynamic changes of behavior, modality styles and lifestyles in response to infrastructural and technological investments is key to understanding and predicting trends of travel behavior, car ownership levels, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and travel mode choice. Hence, we need to integrate a methodological framework into current travel demand models to better understand and predict the impact of upcoming transportation services and technologies, which will be prevalent in 20-30 years. The objectives of this dissertation are to model the dynamics of lifestyles and travel behavior through: " Developing a disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework that models and predicts long-range trends of travel behavior, and accounts for upcoming technological and infrastructural changes." Testing the proposed framework to assess its methodological flexibility and robustness." Empirically highlighting the value of the framework to transportation policy and practice. The proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework in this dissertation addresses two key limitations of existing travel demand models, and in particular: (1) dynamic, disaggregate models of technology and service adoption, and (2) models that capture how lifestyles, preferences and transport modality styles evolve dynamically over time. This dissertation brings together theories and techniques from econometrics (discrete choice analysis), machine learning (hidden Markov models), statistical learning (Expectation Maximization algorithm), and the technology diffusion literature (adoption styles). Throughout this dissertation we develop, estimate, apply and test the building blocks of the proposed disaggregate, dynamic discrete choice framework. The two key developed components of the framework are defined below. First, a discrete choice framework for modeling and forecasting the adoption and diffusion of new transportation services. A disaggregate technology adoption model was developed since models of this type can: (1) be integrated with current activity-based travel demand models; and (2) account for the spatial/network effect of the new technology to understand and quantify how the size of the network, governed by the new technology, influences the adoption behavior. We build on the formulation of discrete mixture models and specifically dynamic latent class choice models, which were integrated with a network effect model. We employed a confirmatory approach to estimate our latent class choice model based on findings from the technology diffusion literature that focus on defining distinct types of adopters such as innovator/early adopters and imitators. Latent class choice models allow for heterogeneity in the utility of adoption for the various market segments i.e. innovators/early adopters, imitators and non-adopters. We make use of revealed preference (RP) time series data from a one-way carsharing system in a major city in the United States to estimate model parameters. The data entails a complete set of member enrollment for the carsharing service for a time period of 2.5 years after being launched. Consistent with the technology diffusion literature, our model identifies three latent classes whose utility of adoption have a well-defined set of preferences that are statistically significant and behaviorally consistent. The technology adoption model predicts the probability that a certain individual will adopt the service at a certain time period, and is explained by social influences, network effect, socio-demographics and level-of-service attributes. Finally, the model was calibrated and then used to forecast adoption of the carsharing system for potential investment strategy scenarios. A couple of takeaways from the adoption forecasts were: (1) highest expected increase in the monthly number of adopters arises by establishing a relationship with a major technology firm and placing a new station/pod for the carsharing system outside that technology firm; and (2) no significant difference in the expected number of monthly adopters for the downtown region will exist between having a station or on-street parking. The second component in the proposed framework entails modeling and forecasting the evolution of preferences, lifestyles and transport modality styles over time. Literature suggests that preferences, as denoted by taste parameters and consideration sets in the context of utility-maximizing behavior, may evolve over time in response to changes in demographic and situational variables, psychological, sociological and biological constructs, and available alternatives and their attributes. However, existing representations typically overlook the influence of past experiences on present preferences. This study develops, applies and tests a hidden Markov model with a discrete choice kernel to model and forecast the evolution of individual preferences and behaviors over long-range forecasting horizons. The hidden states denote different preferences, i.e. modes considered in the choice set and sensitivity to level-of-service attributes. The evolutionary path of those hidden states (preference states) is hypothesized to be a first-order Markov process such that an individual's preferences during a particular time period are dependent on their preferences during the previous time period. The framework is applied to study the evolution of travel mode preferences, or modality styles, over time, in response to a major change in the public transportation system. We use longitudinal travel diary from Santiago, Chile. The dataset consists of four one-week pseudo travel diaries collected before and after the introduction of Transantiago, which was a complete redesign of the public transportation system in the city. Our model identifies four modality styles in the population, labeled as follows: drivers, bus users, bus-metro users, and auto-metro users. The modality styles differ in terms of the travel modes that they consider and their sensitivity to level-of-service attributes (travel time, travel cost, etc.). At the population level, there are significant shifts in the distribution of individuals across modality styles before and after the change in the system, but the distribution is relatively stable in the periods after the change. In general, the proportion of drivers, auto-metro users, and bus-metro users has increased, and the proportion of bus users has decreased. At the individual level, habit formation is found to impact transition probabilities across all modality styles; individuals are more likely to stay in the same modality style over successive time periods than transition to a different modality style. Finally, a comparison between the proposed dynamic framework and comparable static frameworks reveals differences in aggregate forecasts for different policy scenarios, demonstrating the value of the proposed framework for both individual and population-level policy analysis. The aforementioned methodological frameworks comprise complex model formulation. This however comes at a cost in terms.
Download or read book Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling Session summaries written by and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2008 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 31 individual authored papers from the breakout sessions are contained in Volume 2"--Pub. desc.
Download or read book Mobility Patterns Big Data and Transport Analytics written by Constantinos Antoniou and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-11-27 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mobility Patterns, Big Data and Transport Analytics provides a guide to the new analytical framework and its relation to big data, focusing on capturing, predicting, visualizing and controlling mobility patterns - a key aspect of transportation modeling. The book features prominent international experts who provide overviews on new analytical frameworks, applications and concepts in mobility analysis and transportation systems. Users will find a detailed, mobility ‘structural’ analysis and a look at the extensive behavioral characteristics of transport, observability requirements and limitations for realistic transportation applications and transportation systems analysis that are related to complex processes and phenomena. This book bridges the gap between big data, data science, and transportation systems analysis with a study of big data’s impact on mobility and an introduction to the tools necessary to apply new techniques. The book covers in detail, mobility ‘structural’ analysis (and its dynamics), the extensive behavioral characteristics of transport, observability requirements and limitations for realistic transportation applications, and transportation systems analysis related to complex processes and phenomena. The book bridges the gap between big data, data science, and Transportation Systems Analysis with a study of big data’s impact on mobility, and an introduction to the tools necessary to apply new techniques. Guides readers through the paradigm-shifting opportunities and challenges of handling Big Data in transportation modeling and analytics Covers current analytical innovations focused on capturing, predicting, visualizing, and controlling mobility patterns, while discussing future trends Delivers an introduction to transportation-related information advances, providing a benchmark reference by world-leading experts in the field Captures and manages mobility patterns, covering multiple purposes and alternative transport modes, in a multi-disciplinary approach Companion website features videos showing the analyses performed, as well as test codes and data-sets, allowing readers to recreate the presented analyses and apply the highlighted techniques to their own data
Download or read book Activity based Travel Demand Models written by Joe Castiglione (Writer on transportation) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C46-RR-1: Activity-Based Travel Demand Models: A Primer explores ways to inform policymakers' decisions about developing and using activity-based travel demand models to better understand how people plan and schedule their daily travel. The document is composed of two parts. The first part provides an overview of activity-based model development and application. The second part discusses issues in linking activity-based models to dynamic network assignment models.
Download or read book Urban Travel Demand Modeling written by Norbert Oppenheim and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1995-02-06 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In addition, models for optimal transportation supply decisions are integrated with the demand models. Transit travel and goods movements are specifically addressed.
Download or read book Applications of ITS Archived Data for Improved Highway Planning and Design written by Keechoo Choi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Travel Demand Forecasting Parameters and Techniques written by and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2012 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 716: Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques provides guidelines on travel demand forecasting procedures and their application for helping to solve common transportation problems.
Download or read book Handbook on Artificial Intelligence and Transport written by Hussein Dia and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-10-06 with total page 649 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With AI advancements eliciting imminent changes to our transport systems, this enlightening Handbook presents essential research on this evolution of the transportation sector. It focuses on not only urban planning, but relevant themes in law and ethics to form a unified resource on the practicality of AI use.
Download or read book Conference on Household Travel Surveys New Concepts and Research Needs written by and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 1996 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Surface Transportation Environmental Research written by Transportation Research Board and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-08-14 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB Special Report 268 - Surface Transportation Environmental Research: A Long-Term Strategy defines a broad and ambitious research program to address and inform major public policy debates about the effects of surface transportation facilities and operations on the human and natural environments. The committee that conducted the study identified major gaps in knowledge that could be filled through a cooperative program of research involving federal agencies, states, and environmental organizations. The committee recommended creation of a new cooperative research program to carry out its recommended research agenda. Special Report 268 Summary
Download or read book EPA Publications Bibliography written by United States. Environmental Protection Agency and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Geography of Transport Systems written by Jean-Paul Rodrigue and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-04-30 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This expanded and revised sixth edition of The Geography of Transport Systems provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the field with a broad overview of its concepts, methods, and areas of application. It explores the spatial aspects of transportation and focuses on how the mobility of passengers and freight is linked with geography. The book is divided into ten chapters, each covering a specific conceptual dimension, including networks, modes, terminals, freight transportation, urban transportation, and environmental impacts, and updated with the latest information available. The sixth edition offers new and updated material on information technologies and mobility, e-commerce, transport and the economy, mobility and society, supply chains, security, pandemics, energy and the environment, and climate change. With over 140 updated figures and maps, The Geography of Transport Systems presents transportation systems at different scales ranging from global to local. This volume is an essential resource for undergraduates studying transportation, as well as those interested in economic and urban geography, transport planning and engineering. A companion website, which contains additional material such as photographs, maps, figures, and PowerPoint presentations, has been developed for the book and can be found here: https://transportgeography.org/
Download or read book Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement written by Keith M. Chase and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2013 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fiscal Year written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 1008 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1995 Department of Transportation Interstate Commerce Commission National Railroad Passenger Corporation Amtrak written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Transportation and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 1012 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1996 Department of Transportation General Accounting Office National Railroad Passenger Corporation Amtrak National Transportation Safety Board written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Transportation and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 1020 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
