Download or read book Multi objective Methods for History Matching Uncertainty Prediction and Optimisation in Reservoir Modelling written by Junko Jhonson Juntianus Hutahaean and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Novel Sampling Techniques for Reservoir History Matching Optimisation and Uncertainty Quantification in Flow Prediction written by Lina Mahgoub Yahya Mohamed and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern reservoir management has an increasing focus on accurately predicting the likely range of field recoveries. A variety of assisted history matching techniques has been developed across the research community concerned with this topic. These techniques are based on obtaining multiple models that closely reproduce the historical flow behaviour of a reservoir. The set of resulted history matched models is then used to quantify uncertainty in predicting the future performance of the reservoir and providing economic evaluations for different field development strategies. The key step in this workflow is to employ algorithms that sample the parameter space in an efficient but appropriate manner. The algorithm choice has an impact on how fast a model is obtained and how well the model fits the production data. The sampling techniques that have been developed to date include, among others, gradient based methods, evolutionary algorithms, and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This thesis has investigated and further developed the following sampling and inference techniques: Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and Population Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inspected techniques have the capability of navigating the parameter space and producing history matched models that can be used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasts in a faster and more reliable way. The analysis of these techniques, compared with Neighbourhood Algorithm (NA), has shown how the different techniques affect the predicted recovery from petroleum systems and the benefits of the developed methods over the NA. The history matching problem is multi-objective in nature, with the production data possibly consisting of multiple types, coming from different wells, and collected at different times. Multiple objectives can be constructed from these data and explicitly be optimised in the multi-objective scheme. The thesis has extended the PSO to handle multi-objective history matching problems in which a number of possible conflicting objectives must be satisfied simultaneously. The benefits and efficiency of innovative multi-objective particle swarm scheme (MOPSO) are demonstrated for synthetic reservoirs. It is demonstrated that the MOPSO procedure can provide a substantial improvement in finding a diverse set of good fitting models with a fewer number of very costly forward simulations runs than the standard single objective case, depending on how the objectives are constructed. The thesis has also shown how to tackle a large number of unknown parameters through the coupling of high performance global optimisation algorithms, such as PSO, with model reduction techniques such as kernel principal component analysis (PCA), for parameterising spatially correlated random fields. The results of the PSO-PCA coupling applied to a recent SPE benchmark history matching problem have demonstrated that the approach is indeed applicable for practical problems. A comparison of PSO with the EnKF data assimilation method has been carried out and has concluded that both methods have obtained comparable results on the example case. This point reinforces the need for using a range of assisted history matching algorithms for more confidence in predictions.

Download or read book A Hierarchical Multiscale Approach to History Matching and Optimization for Reservoir Management in Mature Fields written by Han-Young Park and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reservoir management typically focuses on maximizing oil and gas recovery from a reservoir based on facts and information while minimizing capital and operating investments. Modern reservoir management uses history-matched simulation model to predict the range of recovery or to provide the economic assessment of different field development strategies. Geological models are becoming increasingly complex and more detailed with several hundred thousand to million cells, which include large sets of subsurface uncertainties. Current issues associated with history matching, therefore, involve extensive computation (flow simulations) time, preserving geologic realism, and non-uniqueness problem. Many of recent rate optimization methods utilize constrained optimization techniques, often making them inaccessible for field reservoir management. Field-scale rate optimization problems involve highly complex reservoir models, production and facilities constraints and a large number of unknowns. We present a hierarchical multiscale calibration approach using global and local updates in coarse and fine grid. We incorporate a multiscale framework into hierarchical updates: global and local updates. In global update we calibrate large-scale parameters to match global field-level energy (pressure), which is followed by local update where we match well-by-well performances by calibration of local cell properties. The inclusion of multiscale calibration, integrating production data in coarse grid and successively finer grids sequentially, is critical for history matching high-resolution geologic models through significant reduction in simulation time. For rate optimization, we develop a hierarchical analytical method using streamline-assisted flood efficiency maps. The proposed approach avoids use of complex optimization tools; rather we emphasize the visual and the intuitive appeal of streamline method and utilize analytic solutions derived from relationship between streamline time of flight and flow rates. The proposed approach is analytic, easy to implement and well-suited for large-scale field applications. Finally, we present a hierarchical Pareto-based approach to history matching under conflicting information. In this work we focus on multiobjective optimization problem, particularly conflicting multiple objectives during history matching of reservoir performances. We incorporate Pareto-based multiobjective evolutionary algorithm and Grid Connectivity-based Transformation (GCT) to account for history matching with conflicting information. The power and effectiveness of our approaches have been demonstrated using both synthetic and real field cases.

Download or read book Population based Algorithms for Improved History Matching and Uncertainty Quantification of Petroleum Reservoirs written by Yasin Hajizadeh and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In modern field management practices, there are two important steps that shed light on a multimillion dollar investment. The first step is history matching where the simulation model is calibrated to reproduce the historical observations from the field. In this inverse problem, different geological and petrophysical properties may provide equally good history matches. Such diverse models are likely to show different production behaviors in future. This ties the history matching with the second step, uncertainty quantification of predictions. Multiple history matched models are essential for a realistic uncertainty estimate of the future field behavior. These two steps facilitate decision making and have a direct impact on technical and financial performance of oil and gas companies. Population-based optimization algorithms have been recently enjoyed growing popularity for solving engineering problems. Population-based systems work with a group of individuals that cooperate and communicate to accomplish a task that is normally beyond the capabilities of each individual. These individuals are deployed with the aim to solve the problem with maximum efficiency. This thesis introduces the application of two novel population-based algorithms for history matching and uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models. Ant colony optimization and differential evolution algorithms are used to search the space of parameters to find multiple history matched models and, using a Bayesian framework, the posterior probability of the models are evaluated for prediction of reservoir performance. It is demonstrated that by bringing latest developments in computer science such as ant colony, differential evolution and multiobjective optimization, we can improve the history matching and uncertainty quantification frameworks. This thesis provides insights into performance of these algorithms in history matching and prediction and develops an understanding of their tuning parameters. The research also brings a comparative study of these methods with a benchmark technique called Neighbourhood Algorithms. This comparison reveals the superiority of the proposed methodologies in various areas such as computational efficiency and match quality.

Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis and Reservoir Modeling written by Y. Zee Ma and published by AAPG. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Assisted History Matching for Unconventional Reservoirs written by Sutthaporn Tripoppoom and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2021-08-05 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As unconventional reservoir activity grows in demand, reservoir engineers relying on history matching are challenged with this time-consuming task in order to characterize hydraulic fracture and reservoir properties, which are expensive and difficult to obtain. Assisted History Matching for Unconventional Reservoirs delivers a critical tool for today's engineers proposing an Assisted History Matching (AHM) workflow. The AHM workflow has benefits of quantifying uncertainty without bias or being trapped in any local minima and this reference helps the engineer integrate an efficient and non-intrusive model for fractures that work with any commercial simulator. Additional benefits include various applications of field case studies such as the Marcellus shale play and visuals on the advantages and disadvantages of alternative models. Rounding out with additional references for deeper learning, Assisted History Matching for Unconventional Reservoirs gives reservoir engineers a holistic view on how to model today's fractures and unconventional reservoirs. - Provides understanding on simulations for hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, and shale reservoirs using embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) - Reviews automatic and assisted history matching algorithms including visuals on advantages and limitations of each model - Captures data on uncertainties of fractures and reservoir properties for better probabilistic production forecasting and well placement

Download or read book Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development Conference 2022 written by Jia'en Lin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-08-05 with total page 7600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on reservoir surveillance and management, reservoir evaluation and dynamic description, reservoir production stimulation and EOR, ultra-tight reservoir, unconventional oil and gas resources technology, oil and gas well production testing, and geomechanics. This book is a compilation of selected papers from the 12th International Field Exploration and Development Conference (IFEDC 2022). The conference not only provides a platform to exchanges experience, but also promotes the development of scientific research in oil & gas exploration and production. The main audience for the work includes reservoir engineer, geological engineer, enterprise managers, senior engineers as well as professional students.

Download or read book Introduction to Geological Uncertainty Management in Reservoir Characterization and Optimization written by Reza Yousefzadeh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-04-08 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores methods for managing uncertainty in reservoir characterization and optimization. It covers the fundamentals, challenges, and solutions to tackle the challenges made by geological uncertainty. The first chapter discusses types and sources of uncertainty and the challenges in different phases of reservoir management, along with general methods to manage it. The second chapter focuses on geological uncertainty, explaining its impact on field development and methods to handle it using prior information, seismic and petrophysical data, and geological parametrization. The third chapter deals with reducing geological uncertainty through history matching and the various methods used, including closed-loop management, ensemble assimilation, and stochastic optimization. The fourth chapter presents dimensionality reduction methods to tackle high-dimensional geological realizations. The fifth chapter covers field development optimization using robust optimization, including solutions for its challenges such as high computational cost and risk attitudes. The final chapter introduces different types of proxy models in history matching and robust optimization, discussing their pros and cons, and applications. The book will be of interest to researchers and professors, geologists and professionals in oil and gas production and exploration.

Download or read book DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSISTED HISTORY MATCHING AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION TOOL BASED ON GAUSSIAN PROCESSES PROXY MODELS AND VARIOGRAM BASED SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS written by Sachin Rana and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: History matching is an inverse solution process in which uncertain parameters of the numerical reservoir model are tuned in an eort to minimize the mismatch between simulated production and observed production data. History matching problem can be solved as an optimization or data assimilation problem. In this research, the history matching problem is solved from the optimization point of view. Currently, many commercial history matching tools use evolutionary strategy optimization algorithms such as dierential evolution, particle swarm optimization etc. to find solutions of history matching. However, these algorithms usually require a large number of numerical simulation runs in order to converge to acceptable solutions. If each numerical simulation takes an extensive time to complete, these algorithms become inecient. In this research, a new assisted history matching tool named as GP-VARS is presented that can provide multiple solutions of history matching fewer numerical simulations. GP-VARS uses Gaussian process (GP) based proxy models to provide fast approximate forward solutions which are used in Bayesian optimization to find history match solutions in an iterative manner. An application of VARS based sensitivity analysis is applied on forward GP model to calculate the sensitivity index for uncertain reservoir parameters. The results of sensitivity analysis are used to regulate the lower and upper bounds of dierent reservoir parameters in order to achieve faster convergence. A second GP model is used to provide an inverse solution which also provides temporary history match solutions. Since the history matching problem has non-unique solutions, the uncertainty in reservoir parameters is quantified using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC ) sampling from the trained forward GP model. The collected MCMC samples are then passed to a third GP model that is trained to predict the EUR values for any combination of reservoir parameters. The GP-VARS methodology is applied to three dierent heterogeneous reservoir case studies including a benchmark PUNQ-S3 reservoir located in north sea and the M4.1 reservoir located in Gulf of Mexico. The results show that history matching can be performed in approximately four times less number of numerical simulation runs as compared to the state of the art dierential evolution algorithm. In addition, it was found that the P50 estimates of EUR are in close agreement with truth values in the presented case studies.

Download or read book Methods and Applications in Reservoir Geophysics written by David H. Johnston and published by SEG Books. This book was released on 2010 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The reservoir-engineering tutorial discusses issues and data critically important engineers. The geophysics tutorial has explanations of the tools and data in case studies. Then each chapter focuses on a phase of field life: exploration appraisal, development planning, and production optimization. The last chapter explores emerging technologies.

Download or read book Estimation of Distribution Algorithms for Reservoir History matching Optimisation written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification of Unconventional Reservoirs Using Assisted History Matching Methods written by Esmail Mohamed Khalil Eltahan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A hallmark of unconventional reservoirs is characterization uncertainty. Assisted History Matching (AHM) methods provide attractive means for uncertainty quantification (UQ), because they yield an ensemble of qualifying models instead of a single candidate. Here we integrate embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM), one of fractured-reservoirs modeling techniques, with a commercial AHM and optimization tool. We develop a new parameterization scheme that allows for altering individual properties of multiple wells or fracture groups. The reservoir is divided into three types of regions: formation matrix; EDFM fracture groups; and stimulated rock volume (SRV) around fracture groups. The method is developed in a sleek, stand-alone form and is composed of four main steps: (1) reading parameters exported by tool; (2) generating an EDFM instance; (3) running the instance on a simulator; and (4) calculating a pre-defined objective function. We present two applications. First, we test the method on a hypothetical case with synthetic production data from two wells. Using 20 history-matching parameters, we compare the performance of five AHM algorithms. Two of which are based on Bayesian approach, two are stochastic particle-swarm optimization (PSO), and one is commercial DECE algorithm. Performance is measured with metrics, such as solutions sample size, total simulation runs, marginal parameter posterior distributions, and distributions of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In the second application, we assess the effect of natural fractures on UQ of a single horizontal well in the middle Bakken. This is achieved by comparing four AHM scenarios with increasingly varying natural-fracture intensity. Results of the first study show that, based on pre-set acceptance criteria, DECE fails to generate any satisfying solutions. Bayesian methods are noticeably superior to PSO, although PSO is capable to generate large number of solutions. PSO tends to be focused on narrow regions of the posteriors and seems to significantly underestimate uncertainty. Bayesian Algorithm I, a method with a proxy-based acceptance/rejection sampler, ranks first in efficiency but evidently underperforms in accuracy. Results from the second study reveal that, even though varying intensity of natural fractures cam significantly alter other model parameters, that appears not to have influence on UQ (or long-term production)

Download or read book Algorithm aided Decision making in Reservoir Management written by Boum Hee Lee and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sound reservoir management involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and complexity. Because projects handled in the oil and gas industry are often highly risky and uncertain, the decision-making methods the geoscientists employ must be self-consistent, systematic, and defensible. This dissertation addressed three example problems commonly encountered in reservoir management: water injection allocation optimization, horizontal well refrac scheduling, and infill drilling scheduling. Solutions to each problem employ different algorithms and data analytic techniques that allow a coherent integration of uncertainty and decisions. The specific algorithms and statistical tools used for each problem are provided below. The solution to water injection allocation draws from simple models as well as appropriate statistical methods. The capacitance-resistance model (CRM) is used to model interactions between injectors and producers to help predict the reservoir’s fluid production response. The CRM is paired with Koval’s K-Factor method to decouple oil and water from total fluid production. The models are fitted using a bootstrapped dataset to generate a diverse distribution of history matched solutions. Next, the best injection scheme corresponding to each history matched model is determined using ensemble optimization (EnOpt). Finally, a sampling algorithm called Thompson sampling is called upon to determine the optimal injection scheme while reducing the number of less promising simulations. This way, one can select the best injection scheme that is robust to uncertainties in history matching while simultaneously minimizing the number of simulation runs where it is unnecessary. Validation against a reservoir simulation model is provided at the end to confirm that the injection scheme selected is indeed optimal. The refrac scheduling problem examines a horizontal gas well that is a candidate to refracturing. The analysis employs a real options approach to find the current and future conditions in which refracing is the best decision, as well as to provide an accurate valuation that reflects the managerial flexibility of the project. An algorithm called least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) will be used to achieve the two goals. In parallel, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to account for the gas price changes through time stochastically. The results of the valuations are compared against a myopic Monte Carlo/discounted cash flow (MC-DCF) method to demonstrate that the latter provides an underestimate of the true value. The underestimation results from that the MC-DCF approach neglects the alternatives available in managing the project. The difference between the two estimates of project value is calculated to determine the value of flexibility. Finally, the optimal policies determined is examined to confirm that the recommended response to the realization of uncertainties is intuitively consistent. Finally, a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithm is paired with a reservoir simulator to optimize the infill drilling schedule in a reservoir undergoing waterflooding. Because of the permutative nature of sequence-dependent actions, the problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. MCTS allows the user to find an approximate solution to the scheduling problem that is otherwise intractable. The final optimized schedule specifies 1) whether an infill well should be drilled at candidate locations, 2) whether an injector or producer should be drilled, and 3) when the well should be drilled. A provisional validation is provided at the end by comparing the cumulative oil production and the NPV of the MCTS-optimized schedule against those resulting from randomly generated schedules. Overall, the goal of this dissertation is to demonstrate that different algorithms can be tailored to optimize decisions or policies. The proposed solutions systematically integrate the relevant uncertainties in the analysis as they search for the most preferred action. Such rational approach where uncertainty plays an active role in decision-making provides the geoscientists with the confidence that the final optimized decision is the best action to take. Workflows designed and recommended in this dissertation are strongly preferred over the alternatives where uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are conducted after decisions have already been made using deterministic methods

Download or read book Modeling Uncertainty in Metric Space written by Kwangwon Park and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling uncertainty for future prediction requires drawing multiple posterior models. Such drawing within a Bayesian framework is dependent on the likelihood (data-model relationship) as well as prior distribution of the model variables, For the uncertainty assessment in the Earth models, we propose the framework of Modeling Uncertainty in Metric Space (MUMS) to achieve this in a general way. MUMS constructs a metric space where the models are represented exclusively by a distance correlated with or equal to the difference in their responses (application-tailored distance). In the framework of MUMS, various operations are available: projection of metric space by multi-dimensional scaling, model expansion by kernel Karhunen-Loeve expansion, generation of additional prior model by solving the pre-image problem, and generation of multiple posterior models by solving the post-image problem. We propose a robust solution for the pre-image problem: geologically constrained optimization, which utilizes the probability perturbation method from the solution of the fixed-point iteration algorithm. Additionally, we introduce a so-called post-image problem for obtaining the feature expansion of the ''true Earth'' by defining a distance as the difference in their responses. The combination of geologically constrained optimization and the post-image problem efficiently generates multiple posterior Earth models constrained to prior geologic information, hard data, and nonlinear time-dependent data. The proposed method provides a realistic uncertainty model for future prediction, compared with the result of the rejection sampler. We also propose a metric ensemble Kalman filter (Metric EnKF), which applies the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to the parameterizations by the kernel KL expansion in metric space. Metric EnKF overcomes some critical limitations of EnKF: it preserves prior geologic information; it creates a stable and consistent filtering. However, the results of Metric EnKF applied to various cases including the Brugge field-scale synthetic reservoir show the same problem as with the EnKF in general, that is, it does not provide a realistic uncertainty model.

Download or read book Data Analytics in Reservoir Engineering written by Sathish Sankaran and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Analytics in Reservoir Engineering describes the relevance of data analytics for the oil and gas industry, with particular emphasis on reservoir engineering.

Download or read book SPE Reservoir Evaluation Engineering written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Intelligent Computational Optimization in Engineering written by Mario Koeppen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-07-15 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We often come across computational optimization virtually in all branches of engineering and industry. Many engineering problems involve heuristic search and optimization, and, once discretized, may become combinatorial in nature, which gives rise to certain difficulties in terms of solution procedure. Some of these problems have enormous search spaces, are NP-hard and hence require heuristic solution techniques. Another difficulty is the lack of ability of classical solution techniques to determine appropriate optima of non-convex problems. Under these conditions, recent advances in computational optimization techniques have been shown to be advantageous and successful compared to classical approaches. This Volume presents some of the latest developments with a focus on the design of algorithms for computational optimization and their applications in practice. Through the chapters of this book, researchers and practitioners share their experience and newest methodologies with regard to intelligent optimization and provide various case studies of the application of intelligent optimization techniques in real-world applications.This book can serve as an excellent reference for researchers and graduate students in computer science, various engineering disciplines and the industry.