Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Shocks and Consumer Inflation Expectations written by Amay Vivek Narayan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists have become very interested in the relationship between monetary policy and inflation expectations. However, most research has focused on professional forecasters rather than consumers' expectations. This paper explores interactions between monetary policy and consumer expectations. Specifically, we estimate the impact of monetary policy shocks on consumer expectations. Using a simple linear regression model and data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we found somewhat surprising results. Namely, that consumers adjust their expectations positively in response to an unexpected tightening of monetary policy. This suggests the existence of the "signalling channel" of monetary policy. We control for a host of macroeconomic and demographic variables, and our results are consistent across income and education groups. In line with previous research, we found greater heterogeneity in expectations for lower-income and lower-educated groups. Our research challenges conventional thinking regarding the influence of monetary policy on inflation Expectations, and suggests that this relationship is more complex.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations written by Yoosoon Chang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks to economic shocks, we find that contractionary monetary shocks increase the average level of inflation expectation with anchoring effects, with a reduction in disagreement and an increase in the share of households expecting future inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent. Such anchoring effects are not observed when the high inflation periods prior to the Volcker disinflation are included. Expansionary government spending shocks have inflationary effects on both short and medium-run inflation expectations, while an increase in personal income tax shocks is inflationary for mediumrun. A surprise increase in gasoline prices increases the level of inflation expectations, but lowers the share of households with 2 percent inflation expectations.

Download or read book Which are the Effects of Monetary Policy Identifying Policy Shocks in Recursive VARs written by Felix Miebs and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2007-11 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2006 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1,0, University of Frankfurt (Main), 17 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: 1 Introduction In the mid 70's people started to doubt the validity of macroeconomic models as they were not able to forecast the worldwide recession due to the oil-price shock. These models needed an a priori seperation into endogenous or exogenous variables. This need for seperation was criticized by Sims (1980), who proposed as solution for this problem a Vector Autoregressive model (VAR). "A VAR is an n-equation, n-variable linear model in which each variable is in turn explained by its own lagged values, plus current and past values of the remaining n-1 variables."1 This offers the possibility that these variables influence each other mutually, which makes each of them endogenous.2 Let us put some economic background to these definitions. As we focus on monetary policy, we might be interested in the mutual relation and behaviour of the interest rate (r) and inflation (). For simplicity we just take these two variables with one lag into account. According to our setup we yield the following equation system: (Die Formeln sind nur in der Download-Version verfügbar) The equation system of (1) and (2) is called the primitive system, where (Ert) and (E(pi)t) are uncorrelated white noise disturbances. 2 Building a recursive VAR In this section we will build a recursive VAR step by step. In the first section the primitive system will be transformed into the reduced form VAR. Building on that, we will focus on the identification of the primitive system, which finally will yield us the recursive VAR. Finally we abandon the exogenous assumption about the lag-length which we set for simplicity to one. This will let us end up with the methodology, which will enable us to apply the VAR toolkit to a real world situation.

Download or read book U S Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic written by Euihyun Bae and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-09 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro-level data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that the distribution of consumer expectations at one-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the surge of inflation during 2021, along with the mean. Persistently high and heterogeneous expectations of consumers with less education and lower income are mainly responsible. A simple model of adaptive learning is able to mimic the change in inflation expectations over time for different demographic groups. The inflation expectations of low income and female consumers are consistent with using less complex forecasting models and are more backward-looking. A medium-scale DSGE model with adaptive learning, estimated during 1965-2022, has a time-varying solution that produces lower forecast errors for inflation than a variant with rational expectations. The estimated model interprets the surge of inflation in 2021 mainly as the result of a price markup shock, which is more persistent and requires a larger and more persistent monetary policy response than under rational expectations.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Download or read book Shocks to Inflation Expectations written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-29 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle.

Download or read book Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-27 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations and the Transmission of Monetary Policy written by John M. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past few years, a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. The author provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues, and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with, and reasonably well-functioning financial markets). After presenting a formal analytical framework, the author discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting, and how such a regime differs from money, and exchange rate targeting regimes. After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries. His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion, without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design, and performance of monetary policy, compared with other policy approaches that central banks may follow. Not all countries may be able to satisfy the technical requirements (such as adequate price data, adequate understanding of the links between instruments, and targets of monetary policy, and adequate forecasting capabilities), but such requirements should not be overstated. Forecasting capability can never be perfect, and sensible projections always involve qualitative judgment. More important, and often more difficult, is the task of designing, or improving an institutional framework that would allow the central bank to pursue the goal of low, stable inflation, while maintaining the ability to stabilize fluctuations in output.

Download or read book Inflation Scares and Forecast based Monetary Policy written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Review of the Monetary Policy Framework written by Great Britain: H.M. Treasury and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the performance of the UK's flexible inflation targeting framework against the internationally-accepted monetary policy objective of price stability, a pre-requisite to longer-term growth and macroeconomic stability. Chapters cover the historical and international context, monetary policy frameworks and monetary policy instruments. The paper gives the Monetary Policy Committee's revised remit at Budget 2013. The Government has retained a flexible inflation target framework. The inflation target of 2 per cent, as measured by the 12-month increase in the Consumer Prices Index, is re-affirmed. The remit has been updated to clarify the trade-offs that are involved in setting monetary policy to meet a forward-looking inflation target, and in forming and communicating its judgements the MPC should promote understanding of these trade-offs. The remit continues to require an exchange of open letters between the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer if inflation moves away from the target by more than 1 percentage point in either direction. The open letter from the Governor should now be sent alongside the minutes of the MPC meeting that followed the publication of the CPI data. The remit requests that the MPC provides in its August 2013 inflation report an assessment of the merits of using intermediate thresholds - policy commitments conditional on future economic developments. The remit also reflects the Government's intention that the frameworks for monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, operated by the MPC and FPC of the Bank of England respectively, should be coordinated.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.