Download or read book Models of Business Cycles written by Robert E. Lucas, Jr. and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1991-01-08 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past decade macroeconomic theory has undergone a remarkable transformation. At the forefront has been the "rational expectations revolution," and this school's most brilliant exponent is Robert E. Lucas. In this elegant and relatively non-technical survey, Lucas reviews the nature and consequences of recent developments in monetary and business cycle theory. He discusses the usefulness of alternative models in determining the effects of economic policy on consumption streams and individual welfare. Drawing on a specific model of aggregate activity which represents the current frontier in business cycle research, he then examines the contemporary theory of unemployment. Finally and most controversially, he explores the role of monetary disturbances.
Download or read book Business Cycle Dynamics written by Iryna Sushko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-08-13 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business cycle theory has been one of the fastest growing fields in modern nonlinear economic dynamics. This book presents new mathematical methods for global analysis which have not previously been available in this easily accessible form. In addition it contains a presentation of full analyses of several models left open in the 1950s when the tools then available did not permit more systematic analysis.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Business Cycles in Economic Thought written by Alain Alcouffe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-01-06 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business Cycles in Economic Thought underlines how, over the time span of two centuries, economic thought interacted with cycles in a continuous renewal of theories and rethinking of policies, whilst economic actions embedded themselves into past economic thought. This book argues that studying crises and periods of growth in different European countries will help to understand how different national, political and cultural traditions influenced the complex interaction of economic cycles and economic theorizing. The editors of this great volume bring together expert contributors consisting of economists, historians of economic thought and historians of economics, to analyse crises and theories of the nineteenth and the twentieth century. This is alongside a comprehensive outlook on the most relevant advances of economic theory in France, Germany and Italy, as well as coverage of non-European countries, such as the United States. Several of the highly prestigious Villa Vigoni Trilateral Conferences formed the background for the discussions in this book. This volume is of great interest to students and academics who study history of economic thought, political economy and macroeconomics.
Download or read book Studies in Business cycle Theory written by Robert E. Lucas and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1983 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An academic colleague has called Lucas "the dominant figure in Americanmacroeconomics." And another refers to this group of 14 essays, nearly all of which were firstpublished during the 1970s, as the most influential contribution to macroeconomics in thatdecade.
Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Download or read book Real Business Cycles written by James Hartley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-04 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Sumru G. Altug and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. The book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modelling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.
Download or read book Business Cycle Theory written by Günter Gabisch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the Sixties regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in West,ern economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly become irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anti-cyclic demand policies. From the 1950's until the mid-Sixties business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose sensitive dependence on parameter values (in order to be called busi ness cycle models) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of continuing oscillations. The obvious success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into sta bilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the Sixties which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies 2 Introduction by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles written by Vivian Z. Yue and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modern Business Cycle Theory written by Robert J. Barro and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The new classical approach to macroeconomics, which assumes that people gather and use economic information efficiently, has been the most important theoretical advance since the Keynesian revolution of the 1930s. This book surveys the major contributions of the "second generation" of proponents of the new classical approach, emphasizing real business cycle theories and applying them to a variety of phenomena. The chapters include expositions of growth theory, real models of business fluctuations, the informational role of prices, consumption, fiscal policy, rules versus discretion in monetary policy, time consistency and policy, and monetary models. Although the chapters are aimed at advanced undergraduate- and graduate-level students, they will also be of interest to researchers who are looking for a compact and original exposition of the new classical macroeconomics.
Download or read book Real Business Cycle Models in Economics written by Warren Young and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models were developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally.
