Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping written by Shun Chen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry. Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels. The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities. This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market written by Gijsbert Kooij and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Fuzzy Integrated Logical Forecasting Model for Dry Bulk Shipping Index Forecasting written by Okan Duru and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study develops an improved fuzzy time series method via adjustment of the latest value factor and previous error patterns. There are many fuzzy extended applications in the literature, and the fuzzy time series is one successful implementation of fuzzy logical modelling. Fuzzy time series have been studied for over a decade, and many researchers have proposed to remove some of the drawbacks of the initial fuzzy time series algorithm. In this paper, fuzzy integrated logical forecasting (FILF) and extended FILF (E-FILF) algorithms are suggested for short term forecasting purposes. Empirical studies are performed over the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), and indicate the superiority of the proposed approach compared to conventional benchmark methods.

Download or read book Econometric Modelling of World Shipping written by M. Beenstock and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993-09-30 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Modelling of World Shipping describes an economic model that may be used to forecast world shipping markets. A unique feature of the model is that it relates to both sectors of world shipping, the dry cargo sector and the tanker sector. This is the first time that a model of this type has been published. This book also breaks new ground in explaining the behaviour of vessel prices, both new and secondhand.

Download or read book Model for Freight Forecasting of Capesize Dry Bulk Carriers written by Leonardo Wilken and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Shipping Market Variables written by Kasra Pourkermani and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Container Freight Rates written by Leopold David Alonso Manzanero and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study is to analyse the behaviour of container freight rate time series with econometric tools in order to attempt an accurate forecast, as well as to justifyi our numerical findings based on maritime economic theory . There is a gap when it comes to forecasting container freight rates, as existing literature mainly looks into the dry bulk sector or oil shipping. This is most likely attributable to the homogeneity of the cargo of the dry bulk and oil segments, which makes the economic reasoning for the models more substantial, as the industry segment in question trades a widely available commodity, or comparable good. This makes assumptions about perfectly competitive markets more convenient instead of looking at a shipping segment that transports many different kinds of goods, as is the case within container shipping. However, as container shipping companies provide comparable services, this should not pose problems, especially when using macroeconomic modelling. This paper attempts to contribute to the development of a forecasting model for container freight rates by conducting an econometric analysis of average container freight rates which are easily accessible to professionals, in order to pave a path for further research within this field.

Download or read book Forecasting Model for Dry Bulk Sea Fright written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analysis and Forecast of the Capesize Bulk Carriers Shipping Market Using Artificial Neural Networks written by Athanasios V. Voudris and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investing in the bulk carrier market constitutes a rather risky investment due to the volatility of the bulk carrier freight rates. In this study it is attempted to uncover the benefits of using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in forecasting the Capesize Ore Voyage Rates from Tubarao to Rotterdam with a 145,000 dwt Bulk carrier. Initially, market analysis allows the assessment of the relation of some parameters of the dry bulk market with the evolution of freight rates. Subsequently, ANNs with an appropriate architecture are constructed and sufficient data, in terms of quantity and quality, are collected and organized so as to establish both the training and the testing data sets. The use of ANNs along with genetic algorithms allows the prediction of bulk freight rates with considerable accuracy for as long as eighteen months ahead and this is quantified by calculating the relative and absolute errors. It is concluded that ANNs offer a promising approach to forecasting the bulk market when coupled with efficient market modeling.

Download or read book Proceedings of the 2024 2nd International Conference on Digital Economy and Management Science CDEMS 2024 written by Junfeng Liao and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Agent Based Modelling of the Dry Bulk Shipping Sector written by Eoin Jude O'Keeffe and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Advances in Business and Management Forecasting written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2017-11-09 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 12 presents studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as supply chain, health care, prospecting for donations from university alumni, and the use of clustering and regression in forecasting. The orientation of this volume is for business applications for both the researcher and the practitioner of forecasting.

Download or read book Modern Advances in Applied Intelligence written by Moonis Ali and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-20 with total page 543 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two volume set LNAI 8481 and 8482 constitutes the refereed conference proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Industrial, Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, IEA/AIE 2014, held in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, in June 2014. The total of 106 papers selected for the proceedings were carefully reviewed and selected from various submissions. The papers deal with a wide range of topics from applications of applied intelligent systems to solve real-life problems in all areas including engineering, science, industry, automation and robotics, business and finance, medicine and biomedicine, bioinformatics, cyberspace and human-machine interaction.

Download or read book Istanbul as a Global Financial Center written by Melike Bildirci and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2017-08-21 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together analyses of a wide range of economic and financial subjects, including any issue related to these broader concepts, such as development, banking crises, energy, and Islamic finance, among others. It offers a clear discussion of the current period of economic transition and the future prospects of developing countries in terms of financial and economic perspectives. It will serve to raise awareness of the important opportunities and risks inherent in the global financial system, and makes a valuable contribution to wider economic debates by identifying the priorities and policy prescriptions that will help countries to realise their potential. The book will particularly appeal to academicians and students, as well as, researchers and professionals in the fields of economics, finance, and business. It may also serve as a secondary textbook for courses about Eurasian countries in economics and finance departments of higher learning institutions.

Download or read book The Intercargo Dry Bulk Demand Model InterFreight written by International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Prediction Model for Dry Bulk Secondhand Ship Market written by 賴廷嘉 and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs One Model Fits All written by Benjamin Beckers and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-25 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.