Download or read book Modeling Long Run Cause of Death Mortality Trends written by Michael Sherris and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper models relationships between trends in cause of death mortality rates for five main causes of death (circulatory system, cancer, respiratory system, external causes, infectious and parasitic diseases) across nine major countries (USA, Australia, Switzerland, Japan, Singapore, Italy, Norway, Sweden, UK). Trends and relationships between mortality rates for causes of death are important since these trends are hidden in aggregate data. Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to model the common trends in causes of death by country. A VECM is a multivariate dynamic system allowing for long-run relationships between variables and common stochastic trends. The paper demonstrates that mortality rates by causes of death have common stochastic trends in many countries but these also differ across countries highlighting the potential for geographical diversification of mortality trends. The results confirm long-run relationships exist between the five main causes of death, indicating dependence between these competing risks. Cause of death analysis provides valuable information that can improve the estimation of aggregate mortality trends.

Download or read book High and Rising Mortality Rates Among Working Age Adults written by National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine and published by . This book was released on 2021-12-02 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause of Death Mortality Dependence written by Severine Arnold (-Gaille) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Longevity risk is amongst the most important factors to consider for pricing and risk management of longevity products. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death, insurers and demographers are increasingly considering cause-of-death data to better understand risks in their mortality assumptions. The relative importance of causes of death has changed over many years. As one cause reduces, others increase or decrease. The dependence between mortality for different causes of death is important when projecting future mortality. However, for scenario analysis based on causes of death, the assumption usually made is that causes of death are independent. Recent models, in the form of Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), have been developed for multivariate dynamic systems and capture time dependency with common stochastic trends. These models include long-run stationary relations between the variables, and thus allow a better understanding of the nature of this dependence. This paper applies VECM to cause-of-death mortality rates in order to assess the dependence between these competing risks. We analyze the five main causes of death in Switzerland. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run stationary relationship between these five causes. This estimated relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional ARIMA processes, that do not allow for cause-of-death dependencies.

Download or read book Improving Longevity and Mortality Risk Models with Common Stochastic Long Run Trends written by Michael Sherris and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling mortality and longevity risk presents challenges because of the impact of improvements at different ages and the existence of common trends. Modeling cause of death mortality rates is even more challenging since trends and age effects are more diverse. Despite this, successfully modeling these mortality rates is critical to assessing risk for insurers issuing longevity risk products including life annuities. Longevity trends are often forecasted using a Lee-Carter model. A common stochastic trend determines age-based improvements. Other approaches fit an age-based parametric model with a time series or vector autoregression for the parameters. Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), developed recently in econometrics, include common stochastic long-run trends. This paper uses a stochastic parameter VECM form of the Heligman-Pollard model for mortality rates, estimated using data for circulatory disease deaths in the United States over a period of 50 years. The model is then compared with a version of the Lee-Carter model and a stochastic parameter ARIMA Heligman-Pollard model. The VECM approach proves to be an improvement over the Lee-Carter and ARIMA models as it includes common stochastic long-run trends.

Download or read book Modelling Mortality with Common Stochastic Long Run Trends written by Severine Arnold (-Gaille) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling mortality and longevity risk is critical to assessing risk for insurers issuing longevity risk products. It has challenged practitioners and academics alike because of first the existence of common stochastic trends and second the unpredictability of an eventual mortality improvement in some age groups. When considering cause-of-death mortality rates, both aforementioned trends are additionally affected by the cause of death. Longevity trends are usually forecasted using a Lee-Carter model with a single stochastic time series for period improvements, or using an age-based parametric model with univariate time series for the parameters. We assess a multivariate time series model for the parameters of the Heligman-Pollard function, through Vector Error Correction Models which include the common stochastic long-run trends. The model is applied to circulatory disease deaths in U.S. over a 50-year period and is shown to be an improvement over both the Lee-Carter model and the stochastic parameter ARIMA Heligman-Pollard model.

Download or read book Future Directions for the Demography of Aging written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.

Download or read book Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High Income Countries written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-27 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.

Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Download or read book Disease Control Priorities Third Edition Volume 2 written by Robert Black and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The evaluation of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) by the Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (DCP3) focuses on maternal conditions, childhood illness, and malnutrition. Specifically, the chapters address acute illness and undernutrition in children, principally under age 5. It also covers maternal mortality, morbidity, stillbirth, and influences to pregnancy and pre-pregnancy. Volume 3 focuses on developments since the publication of DCP2 and will also include the transition to older childhood, in particular, the overlap and commonality with the child development volume. The DCP3 evaluation of these conditions produced three key findings: 1. There is significant difficulty in measuring the burden of key conditions such as unintended pregnancy, unsafe abortion, nonsexually transmitted infections, infertility, and violence against women. 2. Investments in the continuum of care can have significant returns for improved and equitable access, health, poverty, and health systems. 3. There is a large difference in how RMNCH conditions affect different income groups; investments in RMNCH can lessen the disparity in terms of both health and financial risk.

Download or read book When Children Die written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-02-09 with total page 713 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The death of a child is a special sorrow. No matter the circumstances, a child's death is a life-altering experience. Except for the child who dies suddenly and without forewarning, physicians, nurses, and other medical personnel usually play a central role in the lives of children who die and their families. At best, these professionals will exemplify "medicine with a heart." At worst, families' encounters with the health care system will leave them with enduring painful memories, anger, and regrets. When Children Die examines what we know about the needs of these children and their families, the extent to which such needs areâ€"and are notâ€"being met, and what can be done to provide more competent, compassionate, and consistent care. The book offers recommendations for involving child patients in treatment decisions, communicating with parents, strengthening the organization and delivery of services, developing support programs for bereaved families, improving public and private insurance, training health professionals, and more. It argues that taking these steps will improve the care of children who survive as well as those who do notâ€"and will likewise help all families who suffer with their seriously ill or injured child. Featuring illustrative case histories, the book discusses patterns of childhood death and explores the basic elements of physical, emotional, spiritual, and practical care for children and families experiencing a child's life-threatening illness or injury.

Download or read book Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors written by Alan D. Lopez and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006-04-02 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic health planning, the cornerstone of initiatives designed to achieve health improvement goals around the world, requires an understanding of the comparative burden of diseases and injuries, their corresponding risk factors and the likely effects of invervention options. The Global Burden of Disease framework, originally published in 1990, has been widely adopted as the preferred method for health accounting and has become the standard to guide the setting of health research priorities. This publication sets out an updated assessment of the situation, with an analysis of trends observed since 1990 and a chapter on the sensitivity of GBD estimates to various sources of uncertainty in methods and data.

Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-24 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Download or read book Mortality and Causes of Death in 20th Century Ukraine written by France Meslé and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-08 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Ukraine faced two very different kinds of health crises during the twentieth century. First, in the 1930s and 1940s, famine, war and political upheaval caused massive population losses. Previous evaluations of overall losses have given an idea of the scale of these catastrophes but do not distinguish between crisis mortality, birth shortfall and loss through emigration. Based on a painstaking work of reconstitution, this study is the first to provide a detailed estimation of the hecatomb in terms of number of deaths and life expectancy. The famine of 1933 was alone responsible for the deaths of 2.6 million Ukrainians and reduced male and female life expectancies to 7 and 11 years respectively. Once the crises of the 1930s and 1940s were over, the earlier trend in health resumed and mortality declined steadily until the 1960s. At this point, however, a new type of crisis appeared that caused a sustained reversal in the existing trends. Life expectancy for women stopped increasing altogether, while that for men began a relentless year on year regression. Notwithstanding the confusing picture created by the fluctuations of the 1980s and 1990s, the long-term trend is to further deterioration. To understand the factors involved, this study analyses in detail the combined effects of different causes of death at different ages.​

Download or read book U S Health in International Perspective written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-04-12 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is among the wealthiest nations in the world, but it is far from the healthiest. Although life expectancy and survival rates in the United States have improved dramatically over the past century, Americans live shorter lives and experience more injuries and illnesses than people in other high-income countries. The U.S. health disadvantage cannot be attributed solely to the adverse health status of racial or ethnic minorities or poor people: even highly advantaged Americans are in worse health than their counterparts in other, "peer" countries. In light of the new and growing evidence about the U.S. health disadvantage, the National Institutes of Health asked the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine (IOM) to convene a panel of experts to study the issue. The Panel on Understanding Cross-National Health Differences Among High-Income Countries examined whether the U.S. health disadvantage exists across the life span, considered potential explanations, and assessed the larger implications of the findings. U.S. Health in International Perspective presents detailed evidence on the issue, explores the possible explanations for the shorter and less healthy lives of Americans than those of people in comparable countries, and recommends actions by both government and nongovernment agencies and organizations to address the U.S. health disadvantage.

Download or read book Recent Advances in Reliability and Quality in Design written by Hoang Pham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-20 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest theories and methods of reliability and quality, with emphasis on reliability and quality in design and modelling. Each chapter is written by active researchers and professionals with international reputations, providing material which bridges the gap between theory and practice to trigger new practices and research challenges. The book therefore provides a state-of-the-art survey of reliability and quality in design and practices.

Download or read book Premature Death in the New Independent States written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-05-27 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years there have been alarming reports of rapid decreases in life expectancy in the New Independent States (former members of the Soviet Union). To help assess priorities for health policy, the Committee on Population organized two workshopsâ€"the first on adult mortality and disability, the second on adult health priorities and policies. Participants included demographers, epidemiologists, public health specialists, economists, and policymakers from the NIS countries, the United States, and Western Europe. This volume consists of selected papers presented at the workshops. They assess the reliability of data on mortality, morbidity, and disability; analyze regional patterns and trends in mortality rates and causes of death; review evidence about major determinants of adult mortality; and discuss implications for health policy.

Download or read book A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis written by Adriana Lleras-Muney and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.