Download or read book Modeling Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity PPP written by Joshua Aizenman and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of the exchange rate under floating rates can be interpreted in terms of approaches that allow for short term price rigidity as well as in terms of models that consider the magnification effect of new information. This paper combines the two approaches into a unified framework, where the degree to which prices are rigid is determined endogenously. It is shown that the variance of percentage deviations from ppp has an upper bound, and that the relationship between the variance of deviations from ppp and the aggregate variability is not monotonic. Allowing for a short-run Phillips curve with optimal indexation, it is also demonstrated that a higher price flexibility will reduce deviations from ppp and output volatility

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates written by Lawrence H. Officer and published by Greenwich, Conn. : JAI Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evolution of PPP theory; Modern PPP theory and practice; Selected PPP studies.

Download or read book Time Varying Thresholds written by Serineh Najarian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a time-varying threshold autoregressive model (TVTAR), which is used to examine the persistence of deviations from PPP. We find support for the stationary TVTAR against the unit root hypothesis; however, for some developing countries, we do not reject the TVTAR with a unit root in the corridor regime. We calculate magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from forecasted changes in exchange rates. A key result is asymmetric adjustment. In developing countries, the average cumulative deviation from forecasts during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice the corresponding measure during periods when exchange rates are above forecasts.

Download or read book The Purchasing Power Parity Criterion for Stabilizing Exchange Rates written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-06-21 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of purchasing power parity as a basis of fixing exchange rates among industrial countries, as proposed by McKinnon, is discussed and contrasted with alternative interpretations of the PPP doctrine. Major policy implications of such a regime are emphasized. Furthermore, a new technique for estimating PPP exchange rates which makes use of price pressure exerted by exchange deviation is introduced. This method is capable of solving the “base-year” problem more satisfactorily than the traditional Cassel-Keynes methodology. Estimated yen/dollar and mark/dollar PPP exchange rates are close to estimates derived using other methods.

Download or read book A Model of Temporary Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity written by Ho Sang Kang and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Half Lives of Deviations from PPP written by Jaebeom Kim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the convergence question by contrasting the half-lives of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) across traded and nontraded goods in an exchange rate model with sticky prices. In particular, empirical results show that in most cases the half-lives of PPP deviations for traded goods are shorter than those for total consumption and for nontraded goods.

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity Balanced Growth and Volatility Forecasting An Application of Recent Developments in Time Series Analysis written by Periklis Gogas and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I use recent advance in statistics and econometrics in an effort to re-test some well-known theoretical propositions, examine whether those new techniques support the theory, provide models that are better fitted to describe and forecast economic time-series. The Purchasing Power Parity theory is tested using the Fisher and Seater (1993) and King and Watson (1997) methodologies and strong evidence in support of PPP is found. I use the general class of ARCH/GARCH processes to model financial time series in an ARIMA framework and the best fitted models outperform traditional ARIMA models in terms of the forecast variance. Finally, I test the balanced growth theory and try to estimate a money demand function using the Johansen and Juselius (1993) methodology. I do not find evidence in support of the balanced growth theory and a stable money demand function, and these results are not sensitive to different monetary aggregates that are constructed according to recent index number theory.

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity its theoretical perspective and empirical evidence written by Marc Munzer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-08-19 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2009 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Hull, language: English, abstract: The Swedish economist Gustav Cassel developed his theory of Purchasing Power Parity (henceforth PPP) more than 80 years. Ago, and today it is still an essential part of the framework for forecasting exchange rates, which includes parity conditions in international finance. International parity conditions imply purchasing power parity, the Fisher effect, the interest rate parity theory and the expectations theory. “They are the set of equilibrium relationships which should hold between product prices, interest rates, and spot and forward exchange rates assuming a freely floating exchange system.” (Demirag and Goddard, 1994, 70) Unfortunately, these theories do not always work out in reality, especially in times of financial crisis. However, they give us a central understanding of how and why multinational business is related in the world. Sometimes, “the mistake is not always in the theory itself, but in the way it is interpreted or applied in practice” (Eitemann et.al., 2004, 133). This essay will take a detailed look at PPP, its theoretical perspective, and the empirical evidence for it. [...]

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity written by Moon H. Lee and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity written by Beiling Yan and published by Statistics Canada. This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Testing Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity PPP written by Joshua Aizenman and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to study analytically how the presence of transportation costs in a model of deviations from PPP affects the testing procedure of the PPP hypothesis The analysis shows that in the presence of transportation costs traditional regression analysis will tend to reject the PPP hypothesis even if goods markets are well arbitraged, because the values of the regression coefficients are affected systematically by considerations that are independent of the degree to which markets are arbitraged. Thus, the content of the ppp approach cannot be tested satisfactorily without considering the systematic effects of transportation costs and other costs of goods arbitrage

Download or read book Quantifying the Half Life of Deviations from PPP written by Lutz Kilian and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behavior of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative priors for the half-life of deviations from PPP can be examined. We show how to incorporate formally the prior views of economists about the half-life. In our empirical analysis we provide two examples of such priors. One example is a consensus prior consistent with widely held views among economists with a professional interest in the PPP debate. The other example is a relatively diffuse prior designed to capture a large degree of uncertainty about the half-life. Our methodology allows us to make explicit probability statements about the half-life and to assess the likelihood that the half-life exceeds a given number of years, without taking a stand on whether or not the data have a unit root. We find only very limited support for the common view in the PPP literature that the half-life is between three and five years.

Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory written by Luca Antonio Ricci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper theoretically derives and empirically tests the implications of a new trade theory framework for the systematic movements in the real exchange rate. It focuses on the effect of imperfect substitutability of tradables and on the importance of competitiveness, for which we construct an original proxy. Using a panel dynamic OLS estimation of nine bilateral US dollar real exchange rates, we derive long-run coefficients for relative productivity and competitiveness in the tradable and non-tradable sectors, controlling for standard macroeconomic variables. The implications of imperfect substitutability of tradables fit the data better than the standard neoclassical assumption of price equalization. Our new measure of competitiveness is statistically significant in explaining deviations from PPP.

Download or read book The International Transmission of Inflation written by Michael R. Darby and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation became the dominant economic, social, and political problem of the industrialized West during the 1970s. This book is about how the inflation came to pass and what can be done about it. Certain to provoke controversy, it is a major source of new empirical information and theoretical conclusions concerning the causes of international inflation. The authors construct a consistent data base of information for eight countries and design a theoretically sound model to test and evaluate competing hypotheses incorporating the most recent theoretical developments. Additional chapters address an impressive variety of issues that complement and corroborate the core of the study. They answer such questions as these: Can countries conduct an independent monetary policy under fixed exchange rates? How closely tied are product prices across countries? How are disturbances transmitted across countries? The International Transmission of Inflation is an important contribution to international monetary economics in furnishing an invaluable empirical foundation for future investigation and discussion.

Download or read book A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean- reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. However, the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies, and may be inappropriate because of regime changes. In this study, we re-examine deviations from PPP using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual observations. Our panel shows strong evidence of mean-reversion that is similar to that from long time-series. PPP deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15% annually, i.e., their half-life is around four years. Such findings can be masked in time-series data, but are relatively easy to find in cross-sections.

Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.

Download or read book The Principle Practise and Problems of Purchasing Power Parity Theory written by Alina Ignatiuk and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-04 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: A, Schmalkalden University of Applied Sciences (Schmalkalden University), language: English, abstract: "Under the skin of any international economist lies a deep-seated belief in some variant of the PPP theory of the exchange rate." The purpose of this paper is to consider one of the most controversial theory in international economics - Purchasing Power Parity theory - its main idea, empirical evidence, limitations and practical application. The main idea of PPP is price levels changes determine the exchange rate change between two countries. There are two versions of PPP theory absolute and relative. Stricter absolute version of PPP did not find confirmation in reality and relative version of PPP theory was proposed. Despite theoretical and practical inconformity, PPP is present in many models of international economics as an explanation of exchange rate changes. The main apologist of PPP theory and its father was Gustav Cassel. He indicated that the exchange rate determined by price levels is not necessarily the actual exchange rate but the equilibrium one. Also Cassel mentioned that there is a tendency for the actual exchange rate to return to its equilibrium exchange rate. The original idea of PPP theory is described below: "Our willingness to pay a certain price for foreign money must ultimately and essentially be due to the fact that this money possesses a purchasing power as against commodities and services in that foreign country." In this paper we considered the principle and two versions of PPP theory, discussed its empirical evidence and econometrical tests, and also tried to find possible reasons why PPP theory fails in reality and answered the question is this theory still useful for explaining exchange rates movements.