Download or read book Medium Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions written by Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.

Download or read book How Big Small are Fiscal Multipliers written by Ethan Ilzetzki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.

Download or read book Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria written by Maria Elkhdari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-31 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issue of fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipliers for Algeria applying several econometric methodologies, including Local Projection Methodology and Vector Autoregressive Models, and using both Algeria-specific and panel data. The paper also explores asymmetries related to the sign of the output gap as well as the direction of spending. The results suggest that (i) average fiscal multipliers for Algeria are generally moderate and below unity; (ii) the impact of public spending shocks is more important when the output gap is negative; (iii) fiscal spending multipliers are significantly larger during spending contraction than expansion; (iv) procyclicality in public spending does not appear to affect output, except for capital spending cuts when the output gap is negative; and (v) while multipliers associated with countercyclical public spending can be sizeable, a contraction in current spending does not materially affect non-oil GDP.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2017 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy written by Mr.Antonio David and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents estimates of fiscal multipliers in Paraguay following different econometric techniques and identification approaches. The results point to multipliers for capital expenditure that are substantially higher than multipliers for current expenditure. In addition, the evidence suggests that tax multipliers are close to zero when using conventional identification approaches, but estimates can be much larger when considering the “narrative” approach. One implication of the results is that the balanced budget multiplier for Paraguay i.e. the effect of on output of an increase in expenditures (in particular capital expenditure) financed by taxes is likely to be positive.

Download or read book Fiscal Spillovers written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-18 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.

Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.

Download or read book The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.

Download or read book Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy written by Mr.Jiro Honda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.

Download or read book Public Finance An International Perspective Revised Edition written by Joshua E Greene and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-11-27 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing from current examples from a variety of countries, Public Finance: An International Perspective addresses the main issues in contemporary public finance, including fiscal sustainability, state enterprises, and a variety of subsidies. There are relatively few textbooks on public finance, and many of them focus on the experience and issues facing the United States. This book sets out to address the critical issues from other countries, particularly those from the developing world or emerging market countries, who have received less attention in other texts. Written in a highly accessible manner, this book is a useful reference for students and practitioners alike.

Download or read book Cross Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-30 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.

Download or read book Republic of Congo written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-24 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Republic of Congo’s Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The Republic of Congo’s ECF program supports the authorities’ efforts to restore fiscal sustainability and rebuild regional reserves while improving governance and protecting vulnerable groups. The Congolese authorities have stepped up efforts in 2018 and 2019 to address the economic crisis and the associated governance challenges. The ECF-supported program aims to help the Republic of Congo restore macroeconomic stability, including debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. It also seeks to improve governance to achieve greater efficiency and transparency in the management of public resources, especially in the oil sector. The Fund-supported program is expected to contribute positively to the regional strategy and stability efforts of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union. The report also highlights that it is key to promote the productivity of factor inputs by increasing investments in human capital.

Download or read book Research Bulletin March 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.

Download or read book Economy Finance and Business in Southeastern and Central Europe written by Anastasios Karasavvoglou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-05-02 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume comprises papers presented at the 8th international conference “The Economies of the Balkan and Eastern European Countries in the Changing World” (EBEEC) held in Split, Croatia in 2016. The papers cover a wide range of current issues relevant for the whole of Eastern Europe, such as European integration, economic growth, labour markets, education and tourism. Written by experienced researchers in the field of economic challenges for Eastern Europe, the papers not only analyse recent problems, but also offer policies to resolve them. Furthermore, they offer insights into the theoretical and empirical foundations of the economic processes described. The proceedings of the conference appeals to all those interested in the further economic development of the Balkan and Eastern European countries.

Download or read book Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment Evidence from the G 7 Countries written by Mr.Bernardin Akitoby and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-11 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Would countercyclical fiscal policy during recessions improve or worsen the gender employment gap? We give an answer to this question by exploring the state-dependent impact of fiscal spending shocks on employment by gender in the G-7 countries. Using the local projection method, we find that, during recessions, a positive spending shock of 1 percent of GDP would, on average, lift female employment by 1 percent, while increasing male employment by 0.6 percent. Consequently such a shock would improve the female share of employment by 0.28 percentage point during recessions. Our findings are driven by disproportionate employment changes in female-friendly industries, occupations, and part-time jobs in response to fiscal spending shocks. The analysis suggests that fiscal stimulus, particularly during recessions, could achieve the twin objectives of supporting aggregate demand and improving gender gaps.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.