Download or read book The Performance of Mechanical Earnings Forecasts written by Dieter Hess and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze three different mechanical models to forecast earnings and compare their forecasts with those of analysts. Moreover, we evaluate implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates that are based on these forecasts. With our analyses we answer three open questions in the literature. 1) Do model forecasts or analysts' forecasts perform better? 2) Are ICCs derived from analysts' forecasts more reliable than ICCs based on model forecasts? And 3) does higher forecast performance also translate into more reliable ICCs? First, we find that analysts' forecasts are even more accurate than the most accurate model forecasts. However, second, we find that model-based ICCs are always more reliable than analyst-based ICCs. Moreover, model-based ICCs are particularly reliable for a sample of firms for which no analysts' forecasts are available. While the lack of reliability of analyst-based ICCs seems to indicate a missing link between forecast performance and ICC reliability, in fact, third, we find that ceteris paribus higher forecast performance translates into more reliable ICCs, that is, within one earnings definition the most accurate forecasts also yield the most reliable ICCs.

Download or read book Mechanical Earnings Forecasts written by Philipp Zacharias-Langhans and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to compare the performance of earnings forecasts from various cross-sectional models and the consensus of financial analysts for the European setting. My findings indicate that the models of Harris and Wang (2018) and Azevedo et al. (2017) are able to outperform raw consensus analyst forecasts both in terms of bias and accuracy, while analyst forecasts still contain information that is not incorporated in pure model forecasts. Further, I show that the accuracy of earnings forecasts is significantly impacted by the underlying earnings definition, and therefore argue that studies that use varying earnings definitions in their comparison are inconclusive.

Download or read book Evaluation of Mechanical Earnings Forecast Models written by and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 2,7, University of Cologne, course: Bachelorseminar Corporate Finance, language: English, abstract: This paper seeks to examine different models to forecast revenue of companies. This is being achieved by examining costs of capital, which are a good representative therefor. The models examined in this paper can be divided into two sections. First, there are mechanical models, second there is one characteristic-based model. The models stand in contrast to analysts’ forecasts. This paper sums up different authors who illustrate, that mechanical models outperform analysts’ forecasts in terms of revenue forecasting. First, the HVZ mode is introduced which is due to outperform analysts’ forecasts. Second, the EP and RI model are introduced, next to a random walk model (RW model) as a benchmark. Objective of this paper is to find out which advantages go along with mechanical models, and whether the quality of forecast could be influenced positively. The topic of revenue forecast is highly relevant for different stakeholders in the financial industry. Based on revenue forecasts investment decisions are met by investors. One advantage of mechanical models therefore, is the greater feasibility due to the greater coverage. Mechanical models rely on firm fundamentals and are hence available for much more companies. Analysts’ forecasts are only available for firms of a certain size upwards. Costs of capital are a topic of focus not only for investment decisions but also for internal application. Apart from the use as a financial ratio it is negatively associated with customer satisfaction. The paper finds out, that the HVZ model outperforms analysts’ forecasts in terms of forecast bias and earnings response coefficient. However, the HVZ model does not outperform analysts’ forecasts in terms of accuracy. The EP and RI model both outperform the HVZ model in terms of all three criteria: forecast bias, earnings response coefficient and accuracy. The characteristic-based model sets up a linear function solely by firm fundamentals, that avoids including unobservable future covariances. Besides, it concludes certain key findings about abnormal earnings volatility and economy-wide risk.

Download or read book Can the Implied Cost of Capital from a Mechanical Earnings Forecast Model Proxy the Expected Cost of Capital written by Ling Lei and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Security Analyst Multi year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market written by Philip Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Corporate Operating Income Forecasting Ability written by Don Ricketts and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Occupational Outlook Handbook written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 850 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Occupational Outlook Handbook written by United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 740 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes 250 occupations which cover approximately 107 million jobs.

Download or read book Evaluation of Earnings Forecasts written by Warren H. Beckcom and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book 1930 Earnings of Mechanical Engineers written by American Society of Mechanical Engineers and published by . This book was released on 1931 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Investments Analysis and Management written by W. Sean Cleary and published by Wiley. This book was released on 1999-09-27 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investments: Analysis and Management, Canadian Edition by W. Sean Cleary and Charles P. Jones is an introductory text that prepares Canadian college and university students for a career in the investments industry. Its unique coverage provides both the theoretical foundation and practical applications students will need to make real-life investment decisions. Several key features distinguish Investments such as an accessible approach to topics, introducing students to the how, and not just the why, of investment management. The text steps beyond concepts by focusing on the realities of the Canadian Investment community. In addition, Investments places great emphasis on topics that are included in professional courses such as the Canadian Securities Course (CSC) and the Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA) program, helping students prepare for future courses and careers.

Download or read book Financial Analysis and the Predictability of Important Economic Events written by Ahmed Riahi-Belkaoui and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 1998-07-28 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysis, based on ratio analysis, has been used as a tool for analyzing the financial strength of corporations. Although ratio analysis is generally used as a univariate strategy, the accounting and finance literature has evolved to include multivariate-based models in financial analysis, and these models can be used to explain important economic events and often predict them. Thus, in an exhaustive coverage of the economic events to which they can be applied, Riahi-Belkaoui discusses these models in a way that will have special value to corporate management, financial planners, and to their colleagues in the academic community who specialize in business and economic analysis.

Download or read book Beyond Mechanical Markets written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-07 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.

Download or read book Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices written by John G. Cragg and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.

Download or read book An Examination of the systematic Post announcement Drift Anomaly Employing a Relative Measure of Earnings Surprises written by Myung Chul Chung and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Occupational Outlook Handbook written by Us Dept of Labor and published by Claitor's Law Books and Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-06 with total page 708 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Career guidance, put out by the U. S. Department of Labor.

Download or read book Treynor On Institutional Investing written by Jack L. Treynor and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for TREYNOR ON INSTITUTIONAL INVESTING "Jack Treynor has a mind of his own. I mean that as the highest compliment. Jack Treynor sees what no one else sees, thinks what no one else thinks, explains what no one else explains. You will learn more in fifteen minutes with Jack Treynor than in a full hour with most pundits. You will work hard but you will see things, think things, and understand things as never before. This book is a most valuable treasure, gleaming with Jack Treynor's brilliance." -Peter L. Bernstein, author, Capital Ideas Evolving "Vintage Treynor. This is a must-own reference for anyone involved in institutional asset management. It assembles - in one place - many of the important insights of one of the most provocative and creative players in the finance world over the past half-century." -Robert D. Arnott, Chairman, Research Affiliates, and Former Editor, Financial Analysts Journal "As a practicing investment manager, Treynor always preferred brilliance to soundness. Identifying the flaws in conventional thinking, he shows both the theorist and the practitioner where to invest time in their search for excess return." -Perry Mehrling, Professor of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University, author, Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance "Jack Treynor's new book brings together a lifetime of exploring the important questions surrounding the sophisticated investor's task. Readers of Treynor on Institutional Investing will be richly rewarded by the insights the author has developed about both the practical and the conceptual keys to successful investing." -Samuel L. Hayes, III, Jacob Schiff Professor of Investment Banking Emeritus, Harvard Business School