Download or read book Measuring Time varying Economic Fears with Consumption based Stochastic Discount Factors written by Belén Nieto and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Robust Aggregate Implications of Stochastic Discount Factor Volatility written by Casey B. Mulligan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The stochastic discount factor seems volatile, but is this observation of any consequence for aggregate analysis of consumption, capital accumulation, output, etc.? I amend the standard frictionless model of aggregate consumption and capital accumulation with time-varying subjective probability adjustments, and obtain four implications for aggregate economic analysis. First, subjective probability adjustments add volatility to the stochastic discount factor, and can rationalize any pattern of asset prices satisfying no-arbitrage, even while capital accumulation is efficient. Second, despite its flexibility in pricing assets, the model implies that, in expected value, the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation is equal to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, and there is a simple, stable, and familiar relation between consumption growth and capital's return. Third, the expected returns on assets in small net aggregate supply are weakly (and sometimes negatively) correlated with capital's expected return, and are thereby poor predictors of aggregate consumption growth. Fourth, when it comes to assets in small net aggregate supply, capital gains reflect time varying risk premia, and returns can predict aggregate consumption growth better when the capital gain component of those returns is ignored. All four implications are consistent with empirical results reported here, and in the previous literature documenting stochastic discount factor volatility. Several recent theories of stochastic discount factor volatility can, from the aggregate point of view, be interpreted as special cases of subjective probability adjusted CCAPM.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Rational Expectations Econometrics written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Download or read book Cultural Finance A World Map Of Risk Time And Money written by Thorsten Hens and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page 573 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive overview of the emerging field of cultural finance. It summarizes research results of cultural differences in financial decision making and financial markets. Many of the results have been published in leading academic journals over the last ten years but some are presented here for the first time. The book is based on an international survey on risk and time preferences — the INTRA study, conducted in 53 countries worldwide. Applications to financial markets include the equity premium puzzle, the value premium, dividend payout policies and asset allocations.
Download or read book Pricing the Planet s Future written by Christian Gollier and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, the judge, the citizen, the politician, and the entrepreneur are concerned with the sustainability of our development.
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance written by G. Constantinides and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-11-04 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arbitrage, State Prices and Portfolio Theory / Philip h. Dybvig and Stephen a. Ross / - Intertemporal Asset Pricing Theory / Darrell Duffle / - Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance / Wayne E. Ferson / - Consumption-Based Asset Pricing / John y Campbell / - The Equity Premium in Retrospect / Rainish Mehra and Edward c. Prescott / - Anomalies and Market Efficiency / William Schwert / - Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally? / G. Andrew Karolyi and Rene M. Stuli / - Microstructure and Asset Pricing / David Easley and Maureen O'hara / - A Survey of Behavioral Finance / Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler / - Derivatives / Robert E. Whaley / - Fixed-Income Pricing / Qiang Dai and Kenneth J. Singleton.
Download or read book The Economics of Exhaustible Resources written by G. M. Heal and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These 27 articles on the economics of exhaustible resources date from 1931 to 1991.
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Economic Analysis of Investment Operations written by Pedro Belli and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This books presents general principles and methodologies of quantitative risk analysis; provides theory and practice of how to evaluate health, transport and education projects and describes how to assess the environmental impact of projects. It looks at how the tools of cost benefit analysis can be applied from the point of view of the private sector, public sector, bankers, and the country as a whole. It encourages analysts to answer a number of key questions that are likely to increase success rather than simply describing techniques. This book as aimed at all concerned with resource allocation and is presented in an accessible fashion. It is required reading at World bank Institute courses.
Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.
Download or read book A Practitioner s Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata written by Subal C. Kumbhakar and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.
Download or read book Market Liquidity written by Thierry Foucault and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--
Download or read book Macro Markets written by Robert J. Shiller and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 1994-04-07 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macro Markets puts forward a unique and authoritative set of detailed proposals for establishing new markets for the management of the biggest economic risks facing society. Our existing financial markets are seen as being inadequate in dealing with such risks and Professor Shiller suggests major new markets as solutions to the problem. Shiller argues that although some risks, such as natural disaster or temporary unemployment, are shared by society, most risks are borne by the individual and standards of living determined by luck. He investigates whether a new technology of markets could make risk-sharing possible, and shows how new contracts could be designed to hedge all manner of risks to the individual's living standards. He proposes new international markets for perpetual claims on national incomes, and on components and aggregates of national incomes, concluding that these markets may well dwarf our stock markets in their activity and significance. He also argues for new liquid international markets for residential and commercial property. Establishing such unprecedented new markets presents some important technical problems which Shiller attempts to solve with proposals for implementing futures markets on perpetual claims on incomes, and for the construction of index numbers for cash settlement of risk management contracts. These new markets could fundamentally alter and diminish international economic fluctuations, and reduce the inequality of incomes around the world.
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
