Download or read book Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-19 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.
Download or read book Tariffs and the Macroeconomy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-09-08 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains written by Johannes Eugster and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-25 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
Download or read book Trade Costs Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Kanda Naknoi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
Download or read book Immiserizing Foreign Aid written by Mr.Stephen Tokarick and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International trade theory has pointed out that factor accumulation could immiserize a country if it is sufficiently biased toward the export sector, or if it is biased toward an importcompeting sector in the presence of tariff protection. This paper analyzes the impact of aid, in the form of an increase in the capital stock used only in the nontraded sector, on real income. Yano and Nugent (1999) discussed this issue, but their analysis turned out to be incorrect. This paper demonstrates that whether aid in the form of an increase in capital specific to the nontraded sector reduces welfare depends on how aid affects the price of the nontraded good and on whether imports and the nontraded good are substitutes or complements in demand.
Download or read book Global Tariff War written by Ramesh Chandra Das and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2021-03-09 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Tariff War: Economic, Political and Social Implications traces the impacts that global tariff wars in international trade can have on the growth of national economies. Offering a range of perspectives from developing economies, this collection presents a unique insight into this complex area of geo-political and economic practice.
Download or read book The Tariff in Our Times written by Ida M. Tarbell and published by Good Press. This book was released on 2019-12-03 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 'The Tariff in Our Times', Ida M. Tarbell tells the story of how in the last fifty years, protectionism has prevailed despite the will of the public. Although the public prefers duties on products like iron and steel, cheap cotton, and raw materials to be reduced if not abolished altogether, they continue to persist to this very day. This book explores the reasoning behind the history of tariff-making, from the Tariff as a War Tax to the intellectual and moral aspects of choosing to impose duties from products imported from overseas.
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Trade Policy Implications of a Changing World Tariffs and Import Market Power written by Adam Jakubik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-13 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory suggests that countries’ tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on the theoretical framework of the terms-of-trade motive for trade agreements, we estimate hypothetical tariff commitments under current levels of market power and compare them with actual tariff commitments. We find that lower tariff commitments required to reflect current economic conditions would amount to a reduction in annual tariff costs of up to $26.4 billion – equivalent to nearly 10% of global tariff costs. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity between countries and sectors. The sectors with the largest potential tariff cost reductions are vehicles (HS 87) and machinery and appliances (HS 84-85). Product-level tariff reductions would range from 0 to 18.5 percentage points and are on average largest for China. In the past, the GATT/WTO system has updated tariff commitments through periodic rounds of negotiations, and our findings support the revival of the WTO's negotiation function in this area.
Download or read book Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization written by Mr.JaeBin Ahn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-23 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country-industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non-tariff barriers. Finally, we find strong evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.
Download or read book Global Linkages written by Warwick J. McKibbin and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the rapid deterioration of the U.S. trade balance in the 1980s, the United States was forced to finance deficits by borrowing heavily from the rest of the world. In doing so, the United States went from being the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor, while Japan and West Germany experienced a rise in trade surpluses. Such a shift in international trade flows has had profound effects on the world economy. McKibbin and Sachs address a range of issues involving macroeconomic imbalances in the world economy. Through the use of a new simulation model of the world economy they explore how policy actions undertaken in one country affect the trade flows and macroeconomic patterns among the other counties. The authors show that key macroeconomic features of the 1980s can be explained by shifts in monetary and fiscal policies in the major economies and by supply shocks due to changes in oil prices. In addition to showing how the global macroeconomic experience can be understood, they focus on a number of current policy issues, including the reduction of global trade imbalances, the consequences of U.S. fiscal consolidation, the effects of an oil price shock, the implications for the U.S. economy of increases in Japanese and German fiscal spending, the effects of targeting exchange rates among the major currencies, and the gains of increased coordination of macroeconomic politics among the major economies. In several cases, their conclusions are shown to be quite different from those that form the basis of many conventional views. The authors also analyze the importance of interaction between policymakers in industrial economies and conclude by reemphasizing the need for U.S. politicians and policy experts to recognize that macroeconomic results in the U.S. now depend heavily on events abroad.
Download or read book Peeling Away the Layers Impacts of Durable Tariff Elimination written by Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, which generates non-linear impacts. First, complete tariff elimination results in a large additional trade gains over and above tariff reductions. Second, commitment to durable tariff elimination, through WTO bindings, further boosts both imports and exports of ITA members. The unique setting of the WTO Information Technology Agreement (ITA) allows us to identify these effects of non-discriminatory trade policies because (i) ITA constitutes a quasi-natural experiment as several “passive” signatories joined it as an unavoidable part of pursuing of a larger policy objective, and (ii) ITA's partial coverage of the IT sector provides a natural control group for cross-product identification. Commitments under the ITA spurned development of a downstream IT export sector in “passive” signatories.
Download or read book International Trade Distortions and Long Run Economic Growth written by Jong-Wha Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The links between trade and growth are examined in a neoclassical model of an open economy in which domestic production requires both domestic and imported inputs. The model shows that trade distortions induced by such government policies as tariffs and exchange controls generate cross-country divergences in growth rates and in per capita income over a long transitional period. The empirical results confirm that tariff rates and black market premia, interacting with an estimate of the share of free trade imports, have significant negative effects on the growth rate of per capita income across countries in the orders of magnitude predicted by the model.
