Download or read book Learning About Monetary Policy Rules When Long Horizon Expectations Matter written by Bruce J. Preston and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. Following a considerable literature on learning, it is assumed that private agents seek to maximize their objectives subject to standard constraints and the restriction of using an econometric model to make inferences about future uncertainty. Agents do not know other agents' tastes or beliefs and therefore do not have a complete economic model with which to derive true probability laws. Because agents solve a multi-period decision problem, their actions depend on forecasts of macroeconomic conditions many periods into the future, unlike the analysis of the Bullard and Mitra (2002) and Evans and Honkapohja (2002). The central question addressed is whether the learning dynamics converge to the equilibrium predicted by rational expectations equilibrium analysis. This question is considered for several prominent instrument rules for the determination of the nominal interest rate. A key result is that a Taylor rule ensures convergence to rational expectations equilibrium, if the so-called Taylor principle is satisfied, under any of a broad class of specifications of the learning dynamics. This suggests the Taylor rule to be desirable from the point of view of eliminating instability due to self-fulfilling expectations. A companion paper, Preston (2002b), demonstrates that several policy rules argued to be desirable in the recent literature on monetary policy and learning frequently lead to the propagation of self-fulfilling expectations and hence economic instability.

Download or read book Discussion of Preston Learning About Monetary Policy Rules When Long Horizon Expectations Matter written by Seppo Honkapohja and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The design of interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy have recently been examined for two key concerns. The first issue is determinacy of equilibria. Indeterminacy (multiplicity of stationary rational expectations equilibria) is a concern in models of monopolistic competition and price stickiness are currently a popular framework for the study of monetary policy. The second issue is stability of equilibria under adaptive learning. Some interest rate rules do not perform well when the expectations of the agents get out of equilibrium, e.g. as a result of structural shifts.

Download or read book The Application of Monetary Policy Rules Under Uncertainty about Expectations Formation written by Peter J. Stemp and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 970 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the goals of monetary policy and how are they transmitted? Top scholars summarize recent evidence on the roles of money in the economy, the effects of information, and the growing importance of nonbank financial institutions. Their investigations lead to questions about standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and renewed interest in fiscal-monetary connections. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis Explores the ingredients, properties, and implications of models that inform monetary policy Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years

Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model written by Marcin Kolasa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model in which agents are boundedly rational à la Gabaix (2020). Our setup nests rational expectations (RE) as a special case and it can successfully mitigate many “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates. Since the model implies an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition featuring behavioral expectations, our results are also consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that several UIP puzzles vanish when actual exchange rate expectations are used (instead of realizations implicitly coupled with the RE assumption). We find that cognitive discounting dampens the effects of current monetary shocks and lowers the efficacy of forward guidance (FG), but its relative importance in mitigating the so-called FG puzzle is decreasing in openness. Finally, we show that accounting for myopia exacerbates the small open economy unit-root problem, makes positive monetary spillovers more likely, and increases the persistence of net foreign assets and the real exchange rate.

Download or read book NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004 written by Richard H. Clarida and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading American and European economists discuss monetary and fiscal policy from a global macroeconomic perspective and analyze the implications of European integration; cutting-edge research presented in a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy

Download or read book The Inflation Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy Monetary policy rules written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Download or read book Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-02-28 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume uses state of the art models from the frontier of macroeconomics to answer key questions about how the economy functions and how policy should be conducted. The contributions cover a wide range of issues in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. They combine high level mathematics with economic analysis, and highlight the need to update our mathematical toolbox in order to understand the increased complexity of the macroeconomic environment. The volume represents hard evidence of high research intensity in many fields of macroeconomics, and warns against interpreting the scope of macroeconomics too narrowly. The mainstream business cycle analysis, based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of a particular type, has been criticised for its inability to predict or resolve the recent financial crisis. However, macroeconomic research on financial, information, and learning imperfections had not yet made their way into many of the pre-crisis DSGE models because practical econometric versions of those models were mainly designed to fit data periods that did not include financial crises. A major response to the limitations of those older DSGE models is an active research program to bring big financial shocks and various kinds of financial, learning, and labour market frictions into a new generation of DSGE models for guiding policy. The contributors to this book utilise models and modelling assumptions that go beyond particular modelling conventions. By using alternative yet plausible assumptions, they seek to enrich our knowledge and ability to explain macroeconomic phenomena. They contribute to expanding the frontier of macroeconomic knowledge in ways that will prove useful for macroeconomic policy.

Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality written by Jonathan Benchimol and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.

Download or read book Forward looking Rules for Monetary Policy written by Andrew G. Haldane and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates a class of simple monetary policy rules which feed back from explicit forecasts of future inflation - inflation forecast-based (IFB) rules. These rules aim to mimic current monetary policy practices among the inflation-targeting countries, where policy decisions are based on inflation forecasts. The rules themselves are evaluated using simulations from a small, rational expectations, open-economy macro-model. IFB rules are found to perform well in comparison with other simple rules, such as the Taylor rule. The reasons for this are: first, because they embody the lags in monetary transmission, aligning explicitly the control and the feedback variables of the policymaker; second, because IFB rules are capable of smoothing output by as much as is possible with rules which target output directly - for example, through variations in the forecast horizon; and third, because IFB rules implicitly condition on all state variables, and thus are information-efficient. For these reasons, inflation-targeting rules with an explicitly forward-looking dimension are found to take us within reach of the fully-optimal rule

Download or read book Interest and Prices written by Michael Woodford and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-12 with total page 805 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.

Download or read book Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting written by David Cobham and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-16 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions, especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished team of academics and professional economists from central banks around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis. It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within monetary policy.

Download or read book Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap written by George W. Evans and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports on the findings of Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2007) concerning the global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with inflation threshold policies: if under normal policies inflation would fall below a suitably chosen threshold, these policies should be replaced by aggressive monetary and fiscal policies that guarantee this lower bound on inflation.--Author's description.