Download or read book Leading Indicator Project Lithunia written by Stephen S. Everhart and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: June 2000 - A method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity (measured as total industrial production), as applied to Lithuania. Everhart and Duval-Hernandez present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the result of the economy's deviations from its long-term trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. The indicator they select for economic activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted, becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the reference series. Variables include economically and statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector, and business survey data. They base selection of the components of the leading indicator on the forecast efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the detrended Index of Industrial Production. They apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for detrending the series. This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally adjusted series into cyclical and trend components. One advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend. The OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth cycles in the economies of its member countries. These exercises have been very effective in their forecasting ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is essential to have an adequate statistical system that provides many economic variables in a precise and timely manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD technique and present an application to a country of the former Soviet Union. This paper - a joint product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Units, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Carribean Regions, and the Mexico Country Management Unit - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to foster the development of macroeconomic monitoring techniques. Authors may be contacted by email at [email protected] or [email protected].
Download or read book Leading Indicator Project written by Stephen Everhart and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity (measured as total industrial production), as applied to Lithuania. Everhart and Duval-Hernandez present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania.The cycle is the result of the economy's deviations from its long-term trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. The indicator they select for economic activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted, becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the reference series. Variables include economically and statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector, and business survey data. They base selection of the components of the leading indicator on the forecast efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the detrended Index of Industrial Production.They apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for detrending the series. This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally adjusted series into cyclical and trend components. One advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend.The OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth cycles in the economies of its member countries. These exercises have been very effective in their forecasting ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is essential to have an adequate statistical system that provides many economic variables in a precise and timely manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD technique and present an application to a country of the former Soviet Union.This paper - a joint product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Units, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Carribean Regions, and the Mexico Country Management Unit - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to foster the development of macroeconomic monitoring techniques. Authors may be contacted by email at [email protected] or [email protected].
Download or read book The Rise the Fall and the Emerging Recovery of Project Finance in Transport written by Antonio Estache and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many transport projects undertaken during the boom period of the 1990s came to a crashing halt in 1997, and conditions in emerging markets worsened in 1998 and 1999. Many projects failed, victim of everything from overoptimistic forecasts to excessive debt to an inability to refinance bridge loans. As available financing dried up, many projects went bankrupt, had to be renegotiated, or were taken over by the government. What have we learned from all this?
Download or read book A New Model for Market based Regulation of Subnational Borrowing written by Marcelo Giugale and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To bring fiscal discipline to state and municipal governments, Mexico's federal government has established a two-pillar framework that explicitly renounces federal bail-outs and establishes a Basel - consistent link between the capital-risk weighting of bank loans to subnational governments and the borrower's credit rating. Whether the framework succeeds will depend partly on market assessments of the government's commitment to enforce bank capital rules and refrain from bailing out defaulting subnational governments.
Download or read book Seeds of Corruption written by Harry G. Broadman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists in the field of industrial organization, antitrust, and regulation have long recognized certain factors as potent determinants of opportunistic behavior, corruption, and "capture" of government officials. Only now are these relationships becoming conventional wisdom among specialists in economies in transition.
Download or read book Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience written by C. Hooy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience presents a picture of finance research. The issue of financial resilience in emerging markets is apt and timely as emerging countries are faced with the challenge of finding ways of sustaining their current trajectory in shaping the global financial architecture to ensure sustainable growth.
Download or read book Regulators and the Poor written by Richard Green and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Kingdom generally fights poverty directly - through the government's benefit system - and not through utilities. But Bristish regulators have taken certain measures that help utility consumers (mostly, but not always, poor consumers). Other countries may be able to copy some of their techniques.
Download or read book Policy Research Working Paper the Social Rate of Return on Infrastructure Investments written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Impediments to the Development and Efficiency of Financial Intermediation in Brazil written by Thorsten Beck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To improve on the low level and low efficiency of Brazil's financial intermediation (and hence economic growth), Brazil needs reforms leading to a more efficient judical sector, better enforcement of contracts, stronger rights for creditors, stronger accounting standards and practices, and a legal and regulatory framework that facilitates the exchange of information about borrowers.
Download or read book How the Proposed Basel Guidelines on Rating agency Assessments Would Affect Developing Countries written by Giovanni Ferri and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Basel Committee has proposed linking capital asset requirements for banks to the banks' private sector ratings. Doing so would reduce the capital requirements for banks that lend prudently in high-income countries; the same incentives would not apply in developing countries.
Download or read book Financial Openness Democracy and Redistributive Policy written by Mansoor Dailami and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability.
Download or read book Reciprocity Across Modes of Supply in the World Trade Organization written by Aaditya Mattoo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If negotiations on trade in services at the World Trade Organization are to advance liberalization beyond levels undertaken unilaterally and lead to more balanced outcomes, reciprocity must play a greater role in negotiations. This may be facilitated by the use of negotiating rules that establish credible links across sectors and modes of delivery.
Download or read book Are Cost Models Useful for Telecoms Regulators in Developing Countries written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As developing countries build up their capacity to regulate privatized infrastructure monopolies, cost models are likely to prove increasingly important in determining the efficient cost of providing a service to a certain area or type of customer. But cost models require reliable information, which is often scarce in developing countries. Census data and the location of wire services together may help provide the minimum information a regulator needs to implement a cost proxy model, a promising regulatory tool for assessing the efficient cost of providing a utility service.
Download or read book Savings and the Terms of Trade Under Borrowing Constraints written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When households face the possibility of borrowing constraints in bad times, favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade may lead to higher rates of private savings.
Download or read book The Effect of Early Childhood Development Programs on Women s Labor Force Participation and Older Children s Schooling in Kenya written by Michael Lokshin and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic incentives have a powerful effect on the work behavior of women with children in Kenya. In addition to increasing the future productivity of children, government subsidies of low-cost early childhood development programs would increase the number of mothers who work, thus increasing the incomes of poor households and lifting some families out of poverty. They would also increase older girls' enrollment in school, by releasing them from child care responsibilities.
Download or read book International Perspectives on Leading Low Performing Schools written by Coby V. Meyers and published by IAP. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research is clear: School leadership quality matters. However, our knowledge of effective school leadership remains limited in at least three substantial ways. First, our understanding of school leadership effectiveness generally and school principal effectiveness specifically is limited to Western contexts, primarily North America and western European ones. Second, even in the confines of Western research and context, there has been relatively little specific focus on effectively leading low-performing schools. Third, even the conceptualization of leadership—do we mean the school principal, an administrative team, or a broader school leadership team—is a key factor in how we define and respond to the challenge of leading in low-performing schools. This book advances discussion and disseminates knowledge and global perspectives on what school leadership looks like, how it is enacted and under what circumstances, and when or where lessons might be portable. We anticipate this book having wide appeal for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners considering school leadership and how to support it effectively. The chapters suggest a noticeable level of convergence globally on how to lead low-performing schools effectively. Yet, there are clear political and culture differences that add significant gradation to how school leaders might enact best practice locally or inform policymakers and systems leaders about how to set up school leaders for success and subsequently support them. This book is one of the first that prioritizes the universality and nuance of leading low-performing schools globally.
