Download or read book John Maynard Keynes s Upper and Lower Valued Probabilities written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the course of their professional lives, Henry E. Kyburg, Isaac Levi, and Jochen Runde have maintained the claim that J M Keynes's contributions to probability and decision theory were of a comparative, qualitative nature only. They maintained that J M Keynes had some interesting, but undeveloped ideas, hints, suggestions, and intuitions about the structure of his logical approach to probability. They assert that he made some progress in clearing the way for later researchers who would then create the interval estimate approach to probability that he did not. They claimed that Keynes himself had never provided any detailed, formal mathematical structure at any time in his life to support his intuitions and brilliant ideas. It is a rather simple task to demonstrate that these claims are false by pointing out that there are 17 worked out problems provided by J M Keynes in chapters 15 and 17 of his A Treatise on Probability (1921,TP), as well as the applications of interval estimates used by Keynes in chapters 20, 22, and 26 of the TP, that show beyond any doubt that J M Keynes had created the first explicit interval estimate approach to probability in history. George Boole was the first to work out the mechanics of an interval estimate approach. However, Keynes was the first to emphasize the application and importance of such an approach in applied areas like decision theory. I have chosen Kyburg, Runde ,and Levi because they are representative of how academics in the fields of philosophy and economics handle Keynes's TP. It must be noted here that Kyburg , Levi, and Runde have an understanding of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability that is superior to that of any statistician or mathematician with the exception of Hailperin (1986) .My disagreement with Kyburg, Levi, and Runde is that they have failed to adequately complete the job of correctly identifying Keynes's theory because they restricted their analysis to basically one chapter of the TP, chapter III. The worst treatment of the TP comes at the hands of statisticians. This is due to their commitment to the assertion that all probabilities must be precise, single number answers. NO statistician who reviewed the TP had any inkling of the case Keynes was making.
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Franklin Classics. This book was released on 2018-10-14 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Download or read book The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes Volume 8 A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-04-27 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A landmark text on the logical foundations of probability. The essence of Keynes's approach remains important among philosophers today.
Download or read book The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes A treatise on probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book J M Keynes Versus F H Knight written by Yasuhiro Sakai and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critically discusses and systematically compares J.M. Keynes and F. H. Knight, two giants in the history of economic thought. In 1921 they both published apparently similar books on risk, probability, and uncertainty. However, while Knight's contribution on risk and uncertainty is now well recognized, Keynes's work on probability and uncertainty has been somewhat ignored in the shadow of his more famous The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Focusing on an earlier yet equally important volume by Keynes, A Treatise on Probability (1921), this book sheds a light on his outstanding ideas and the lasting influence on his later works, including The General Theory. There are few books that systematically discuss Keynes and Knight, although there are remarkable comparisons between Keynes's concept of probability and uncertainty and Knight's distinction between a measurable risk and a non-measurable uncertainty. This timely book unifies Keynes and Knight into a new, comprehensive approach to a very complex human behavior
Download or read book General Theory Of Employment Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Atlantic Publishers & Dist. This book was released on 2016-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Keynes and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2014-12-10 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject matter of this book was first broached in the brain of Leibniz, who, in the dissertation, written in his twenty-third year, on the mode of electing the kings of Poland, conceived of Probability as a branch of Logic. A few years before, "un probl�me," in the words of Poisson, "propos� � un aust�re jans�niste par un homme du monde, a �t� l''origine du calcul des probabiliti�s." In the intervening centuries the algebraical exercises, in which the Chevalier de la M�r� interested Pascal, have so far predominated in the learned world over the profounder enquiries of the philosopher into those processes of human faculty which, by determining reasonable preference, guide our choice, that Probability is oftener reckoned with Mathematics than with Logic. There is much here, therefore, which is novel and, being novel, unsifted, inaccurate, or deficient. I propound my systematic conception of this subject for criticism and enlargement at the hand of others, doubtful whether I myself am likely to get much further, by waiting longer, with a work, which, beginning as a Fellowship Dissertation, and interrupted by the war, has already extended over many years.It may be perceived that I have been much influenced by W. E. Johnson, G. E. Moore, and Bertrand Russell, that is to say by Cambridge, which, with great debts to the writers of Continental Europe, yet continues in direct succession the English tradition of Locke and Berkeley and Hume, of Mill and Sidgwick, who, in spite of their divergences of doctrine, are united in a preference for what is matter of fact, and have conceived their subject as a branch rather of science than of the creative imagination, prose writers, hoping to be understood.J. M. KEYNES.King''s College, Cambridge"J''ai dit plus d''une fois qu''il faudrait une nouvelle esp�ce de logique, qui traiteroit des degr�s de Probabilit�."-Leibniz.1. Part of our knowledge we obtain direct; and part by argument. The Theory of Probability is concerned with that part which we obtain by argument, and it treats of the different degrees in which the results so obtained are conclusive or inconclusive. In most branches of academic logic, such as the theory of the syllogism or the geometry of ideal space, all the arguments aim at demonstrative certainty. They claim to be conclusive. But many other arguments are rational and claim some weight without pretending to be certain. In Metaphysics, in Science, and in Conduct, most of the arguments, upon which we habitually base our rational beliefs, are admitted to be inconclusive in a greater or less degree. Thus for a philosophical treatment of these branches of knowledge, the study of probability is required.The course which the history of thought has led Logic to follow has encouraged the view that doubtful arguments are not within its scope. But in the actual exercise of reason we do not wait on certainty, or doom it irrational to depend on a doubtful argument. If logic investigates the general principles of valid thought, the study of arguments, to which it is rational to attach some weight, is as much a part of it as the study of those which are demonstrative.2. The terms certain and probable describe the various degrees of rational belief about a proposition which different amounts of knowledge authorise us to entertain. All propositions are true or false, but the knowledge we have of them depends on our circumstances; and while it is often convenient to speak of propositions as certain or probable, this expresses strictly a relationship in which they stand to a corpus of knowledge, actual or hypothetical, and not a characteristic of the propositions in themselves. A proposition is capable at the same time of varying degrees of this relationship, depending upon the knowledge to which it is related, so that it is without significance to call a proposition probable unless we specify the knowledge to which we are relating it.
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability Scholar s Choice Edition written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 2015-02-12 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-08-05 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Treatise on Probability: Large Print By John Maynard Keynes First published in 1920, this is the foundational work of probability theory, which helped establish the author's enormous influence on modern economic and even political theories. Exploring aspects of randomness and chance, inductive reasoning and logical statistics, this is a work that belongs in the library of any interested in numbers and their application in the real world. We are delighted to publish this classic book as part of our extensive Classic Library collection. Many of the books in our collection have been out of print for decades, and therefore have not been accessible to the general public. The aim of our publishing program is to facilitate rapid access to this vast reservoir of literature, and our view is that this is a significant literary work, which deserves to be brought back into print after many decades. The contents of the vast majority of titles in the Classic Library have been scanned from the original works. To ensure a high quality product, each title has been meticulously hand curated by our staff. Our philosophy has been guided by a desire to provide the reader with a book that is as close as possible to ownership of the original work. We hope that you will enjoy this wonderful classic work, and that for you it becomes an enriching experience.
Download or read book The Collected Works of John Maynard Keynes Illustreted written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Strelbytskyy Multimedia Publishing. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most influential economists of the 20th century, his ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economic. John Maynard Keynes was an English economist, whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. He built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles. He detailed these ideas in his magnum opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. THE PHILOSOPHER ‘Ethics in Relation to Conduct’ ‘The Political Doctrines of Edmund Burke’ The Adding-Up Problem ‘The Principles of Probability’ A Treatise on Probability ‘My Early Beliefs’ THE SOCIAL PHILOSOPHER The Economic Consequences of the Peace A Tract on Monetary Reform ‘The End of Laissez-faire’ ‘Am I a Liberal?’ ‘A Short View of Russia’ ‘Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren’ ‘National Self-Sufficiency’ ‘The Arts Council of Great Britain: Its Policy and Hopes’ THE ECONOMIST The Economic Consequences of the Peace A Tract on Monetary Reform A Treatise on Money The Great Depression A Treatise on Money ‘ “The Great Slump” of 1930’ ‘An Economic Analysis of Unemployment’ ‘The Consequences to the Banks of the Collapse of Money Values’ ‘A Monetary Theory of Production’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money ‘The General Theory of Employment’ ‘Alternative Theories of the Rate of Interest’ Methodological Issues: Tinbergen, Harrod THE POLICY-MAKER The Economic Consequences of the Peace ‘A Plan for a Russian Settlement’ A Tract on Monetary Reform ‘The Economic Consequences of Mr Churchill’ ‘Can Lloyd George Do It?’ Policies for the Slump The New Deal ‘British Foreign Policy’ ‘How to Avoid a Slump’ Full Employment Policy ‘The Clearing Union’ ‘Overseas Financial Policy in Stage III’ ‘The Balance of Payments of the United States’ THE ESSAYIST ‘The Council of Four, Paris’ , ‘Lloyd George: A Fragment’ ‘Dr Melchior: A Defeated Enemy’ ‘Alfred Marshall’ ‘Thomas Robert Malthus’ ‘Newton the Man’
Download or read book The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1978-04-01 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A landmark text on the logical foundations of probability. The essence of Keynes's approach remains important among philosophers today.
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Post Keynesian Economics written by M. Lavoie and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-06-15 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how the realistic foundations and stylized facts of Post-Keynesian economics give rise to macroeconomic implications that are different from those of received wisdom with regards to employment, output growth, inflation and monetary theory, and offers an alternative to neoclassical economics and its free-market economic policies.
Download or read book The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book J M Keynes Theory of Decision Making Induction and Analogy written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2004-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard view of the economics profession is that Keynes was a brilliant, intuitive, non-rigorous innovator. These essays show that Keynes backed up his "intuitions" with a rigorous mathematical and logical supporting analysis which has been overlooked for the last 60-70 years.Keynes was the first scholar in history to systematically develop an interval valued approach to the estimation of probabilities.Unfortunately,Keynes called his interval estimates "nonnumerical(or nonmeasurable) probabilities",since they required two numerals,not one,to estimate the probability.F P Ramsey badly misinterpreted Keynes´s wording to mean that ,in general,numbers could not be used to calculate probabilities.Ramsey´s misinterpretation,which is primarily based on his reading of only one chapter in the TP,chapter III, has been passed down to literally hundreds of thousands of economists,historians,philosophers,statisticians,psychologists,decision theorists,and mathematical social scientists,etc.,over the last half century.The current misbelief ,that Ramsey devastated the logical foundations of Keynes´s logical approach to probability to such a degree that Keynes was forced to capitulate to Ramsey and accept the subjectivist approach to probability,is simply a myth that is handed down from one generation of illiterate economists and philosophers to the next.Keynes was the first decision theorist in history to develop an explicit interval valued approach to probability based on the earlier work of Boole.Keynes was the first scholar in history to explicitly define an index to measure the weight of the evidence,w, on the unit interval [0,1].He was also the first scholar in history to propose a decision rule,his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,to take into account nonlinear probability preferences and the weight/uncertainty or ambiguity(Ellsberg´s more inclusive description,defined by his rho variable on the unit interval between 0 and 1) of the available evidence.Probability and weight are completely separate and independent of each other.Both variables are needed in a formal decision criteria. This book sets the record straight.In essay number 10(essay 24 of the "Essays..." book)the importance of D. Ellsberg´s optimism-pessimism index, alpha(as well as his application of sets of different probability distributions), has been overlooked by the author.Footnote 1 to that essay,as well as the material to which the footnote is appended, is deficient and needs to be revised.Keynes needed such a formal index in his GT.Instead,Keynes relied upon an informal analysis based on conventions and animal spirits.Ellsberg´s formal analysis strengthens the technical and theoretical foundations supporting Keynes´s theories of Liquidity Preference and the Marginal Efficiency of Capital.This book is an abridged version of my much longer "Essays on JM Keynes and...".It concentrates exclusively on Keynes´s contributions to probability,analogy,induction,and decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Download or read book A Tract on Monetary Reform written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Cosimo Classics. This book was released on 1923 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead." -John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923) A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923), by British economist John Maynard Keynes, is a masterly analysis of the world monetary situation at the beginning of the twentieth century. Keynes stated the importance of stable domestic prices and a stable currency for a strong economy, while arguing against the gold standard, which at that time was used for the US dollar and many other currencies. Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931-after it had re-established it in 1925-and the United States abandoned the gold standard in 1933. A Tract on Monetary Reform is essential reading for anyone interested in Keynes' theories and for students of economics or economic history.
