Download or read book Issues in High Resolution Limited Area Data Assimilation for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting written by S. L. Dance and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
Download or read book Evaluating Precipitation Forecasts from the High Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter HREnKF Over the Pacific Northwest written by Phillipa Cookson-Hills and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Pacific Northwest endures some of the heaviest precipitation on the planet. Therefore, producing accurate precipitation forecasts for this area is essential to warn different sectors of society of the timing and intensity of precipitation events. However, forecasting precipitation remains difficult in general, and in the Pacific Northwest in particular, owing to the uncertain atmospheric conditions and complex terrain. In addition, observational precipitation estimation is difficult due to sparseness of the rain gauge data and to the limited radar coverage in complex terrain. In an effort to improve forecast skill in this region, Environment and Climate Change Canada developed a regional High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter (HREnKF) ensemble prediction system. The HREnKF has a 2.5km resolution and assimilates surface and upper air observations every hour. To determine the benefit of increasing the resolution, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the HREnKF are compared to forecasts from the lower resolution (15km) REnKF system, which assimilates data every 6 hours. Furthermore, to separate the impact of increasing horizontal resolution from increased data assimilation, forecasts are also generated from a Down-Scaled (DS) ensemble system, which is downscaled from the REnKF using the same grid as the HREnKF but with no explicit data assimilation. To evaluate model skill, rain gauges and several other radar-based gridded observational products are used as the verification products. QPFs from all models are then compared to the verification products using a suite of deterministic and probabilistic evaluation methods. Finally, observational uncertainties are also addressed and considered in performing the verification. Both the traditional verification metrics and the spatial evaluation indicate a better performance of the high-resolution system compared to the REnKF. However, the effect of data assimilation at high temporal and spatial resolution is found to be negligible, as the HREnKF performs very similarly to the DS for all cases. Therefore, the computationally less expensive DS could be more appropriate than the HREnKF to forecast precipitation over the Pacific Northwest." --
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Download or read book Principles of Data Assimilation written by Seon Ki Park and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-29 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data assimilation is theoretically founded on probability, statistics, control theory, information theory, linear algebra, and functional analysis. At the same time, data assimilation is a very practical subject, given its goal of estimating the posterior probability density function in realistic high-dimensional applications. This puts data assimilation at the intersection between the contrasting requirements of theory and practice. Based on over twenty years of teaching courses in data assimilation, Principles of Data Assimilation introduces a unique perspective that is firmly based on mathematical theories, but also acknowledges practical limitations of the theory. With the inclusion of numerous examples and practical case studies throughout, this new perspective will help students and researchers to competently interpret data assimilation results and to identify critical challenges of developing data assimilation algorithms. The benefit of information theory also introduces new pathways for further development, understanding, and improvement of data assimilation methods.
Download or read book Coastal Engineering 2008 In 5 Volumes Proceedings Of The 31st International Conference written by Jane Mckee Smith and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-05-05 with total page 5136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings contains papers presented at the 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering, which has held in Hamburg, Germany (31 August - 5 September 2008). The proceeding is divided into five parts: Waves; Long Waves, Nearshore Currents, and Swash; Sediment Transport and Morphology; Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk; and Coastal Structures. The papers cover a broad range of topics including theory, numerical and physical modeling, field measurements, case studies, design, and management. Coastal Engineering 2008 provides coastal engineers, scientists, and planners, with state-of-the-art information on coastal engineering and coastal processes.
Download or read book Precipitation Advances in Measurement Estimation and Prediction written by Silas C. Michaelides and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-02-27 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.
Download or read book Data Assimilation for the Earth System written by Richard Swinbank and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-10-31 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data assimilation is the combination of information from observations and models of a particular physical system in order to get the best possible estimate of the state of that system. The technique has wide applications across a range of earth sciences, a major application being the production of operational weather forecasts. Others include oceanography, atmospheric chemistry, climate studies, and hydrology. Data Assimilation for the Earth System is a comprehensive survey of both the theory of data assimilation and its application in a range of earth system sciences. Data assimilation is a key technique in the analysis of remote sensing observations and is thus particularly useful for those analysing the wealth of measurements from recent research satellites. This book is suitable for postgraduate students and those working on the application of data assimilation in meteorology, oceanography and other earth sciences.
Download or read book Short term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Satellite and Radar Information written by Ali Zahraei and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (SQPF-nowcasting) of precipitation at the near real-time is a challenging task. Such forecasts are very critical to the deployment of an effective flood-warning system. Therefore, the development of new SQPF algorithms to provide relatively accurate short-term predictions, is a major objective. Each SQPF algorithm should be able to predict storm position, storm severity, and storm/convection initiation. This dissertation introduces two new approaches, using both radar and satellite data. The pixel-based algorithm, called "Pixel-Based Nowcasting" (PBN), is intended to improve the predictability of small-scale severe storms that most likely other current techniques fail to accurately predict. PBN utilizes a new tracking algorithm. The applied-tracking algorithm significantly improves the trackability of severe storms with complex structures. Two different verification algorithms, including the traditional statistics along with a new algorithm (feature/object-based), are used to test PBN as compared to (1) an operational algorithm, namely Watershed Clustering Nowcasting (WCN), which has been developed by NSSL (2) and a control algorithm called PERsistency "PER". While PBN shows superior performance in detecting very small-scale events, its effectiveness is limited by the availability of full coverage of high-resolution ground-based radar data. To overcome this limitation, a new object-based algorithm using important storm features, such as growth and decay and severity, is proposed. The algorithm is designed to work with satellite (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite--GOES) data. The proposed algorithm, called "PERCAST", applies a newly developed object-based tracking algorithm that is able to track both Mesoscale Convective Systems and very small-scale events, which might not be trackable with existing techniques. PERCAST predicts the rate of rainfall in the next 0~4 hrs, with 4-km spatial resolution using some past time steps to extract storm features. This algorithm is coupled with a precipitation-retrieval algorithm using satellite information for precipitation nowcasting. PERCAST was applied and evaluated over the contiguous U.S. It is shown that the proposed approach significantly improves prediction accuracy. Considering the capability of storm growth and decay and severity change prediction, the proposed algorithm improves the predictability of convective activities in terms of Correlation Coefficient, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Ratio up to 20%.
Download or read book NOAA s Role in Space Based Global Precipitation Estimation and Application written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-03-13 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses precipitation data in many applications including hurricane forecasting. Currently, NOAA uses data collected from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite that was launched in 1997 by NASA in cooperation with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. NASA is now making plans to launch the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2013 to succeed TRMM, which was originally intended as a 3 to 5 year mission but has enough fuel to orbit until 2012. The GPM mission consists of a "core" research satellite flying with other "constellation" satellites to provide global precipitation data products at three-hour intervals. This book is the second in a 2-part series from the National Research Council on the future of rainfall measuring missions. The book recommends that NOAA begin its GPM mission preparations as soon as possible and that NOAA develop a strategic plan for the mission using TRMM experience as a guide. The first book in the series, Assessment of the Benefits of Extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (December 2004), recommended that the TRMM mission be extended as long as possible because of the quality, uniqueness, and many uses of its data. NASA has officially extended the TRMM mission until 2009.
Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.
Download or read book Parameterization Of Atmospheric Convection In 2 Volumes written by Robert S Plant and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-21 with total page 1169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precipitating atmospheric convection is fundamental to the Earth's weather and climate. It plays a leading role in the heat, moisture and momentum budgets. Appropriate modelling of convection is thus a prerequisite for reliable numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. The current standard approach is to represent it by subgrid-scale convection parameterization.Parameterization of Atmospheric Convection provides, for the first time, a comprehensive presentation of this important topic. The two-volume set equips readers with a firm grasp of the wide range of important issues, and thorough coverage is given of both the theoretical and practical aspects. This makes the parameterization problem accessible to a wider range of scientists than before. At the same time, by providing a solid bottom-up presentation of convection parameterization, this set is the definitive reference point for atmospheric scientists and modellers working on such problems.Volume 1 of this two-volume set focuses on the basic principles: introductions to atmospheric convection and tropical dynamics, explanations and discussions of key parameterization concepts, and a thorough and critical exploration of the mass-flux parameterization framework, which underlies the methods currently used in almost all operational models and at major climate modelling centres. Volume 2 focuses on the practice, which also leads to some more advanced fundamental issues. It includes: perspectives on operational implementations and model performance, tailored verification approaches, the role and representation of cloud microphysics, alternative parameterization approaches, stochasticity, criticality, and symmetry constraints.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Data Assimilation for Atmospheric Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications Vol II written by Seon Ki Park and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the most recent progress in data assimilation in meteorology, oceanography and hydrology including land surface. It spans both theoretical and applicative aspects with various methodologies such as variational, Kalman filter, ensemble, Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence methods. Besides data assimilation, other important topics are also covered including targeting observation, sensitivity analysis, and parameter estimation. The book will be useful to individual researchers as well as graduate students for a reference in the field of data assimilation.
Download or read book East Asian Monsoon written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asian summer monsoon has complex space and time structures that are distinct from the South Asian summer monsoon. It covers both subtropics and midlatitudes and its rainfall tends to be concentrated in rain belts that stretch for many thousands of kilometers and affect China, Japan, Korea, and the surrounding areas. The circulation of the East Asian winter monsoon encompasses a large meridional domain with cold air outbreaks emanating from the Siberian high and penetrates deeply into the equatorial Maritime Continent region, where the center of maximum rainfall has long been recognized as a major planetary scale heat source that provides a significant amount of energy which drives the global circulation during boreal winter. The East Asian summer monsoon is also closely linked with the West Pacific summer monsoon. Both are part of the global climate system and are affected by El Nino?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surface temperature variations in the western Pacific and surrounding oceans, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the South Asian summer monsoon. In addition, typhoons in the western North Pacific are most active during the East Asian summer monsoon. They may be considered as a component of the East Asian summer monsoon as they contribute substantial amounts of rainfall and have major impacts on the region. Because of its impacts on nearly one-third of the worldOCOs population and on the global climate system (including effects on the climate change), the study of the East Asian monsoon has received increased attention both in East Asian countries and in the United States. This book presents reviews of recent research on the subject."
