Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Option Prices written by Bing Han and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether investor sentiment about the stock market affects prices of the Samp;P 500 options. I find that the index option volatility smile is steeper (flatter) and the risk-neutralskewness of monthly index return is more (less) negative when market sentiment becomes more bearish (bullish). These significant relations are robust and become stronger when there are moreimpediments to arbitrage in index options. They can not be explained by rational perfect-market based option-pricing models. Changes in sentiment help explain time variation in the slope of index option smile and risk-neutral skewness beyond factors suggested by the current models.

Download or read book Investor Sentiments Rational Beliefs and Option Prices written by Panayiotis C. Andreou and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of investor sentiment on the risk-neutral skewness of S&P 500 index options over the period 1990 to 2011. We decompose the aggregate investor sentiment into an economic fundamentals component that captures investors' rational updating of beliefs and an error in beliefs component that captures investors' expectations not associated with the economic conditions. Our findings reveal a tale of two periods: before June 1997 both the sentiment components affect risk-neutral skewness, while after June 1997 only the fundamentals component is able to explain risk-neutral skewness. Furthermore, the effect of the fundamentals is more pronounced in periods of worsened stock market conditions. By estimating different measures of the slope of the implied volatility smirk, we show that the slope of the calls' implied volatility smirk is driven by investors' expectations about a continuation of recent economic conditions, while the slope of the puts' implied volatility smirk is driven by investors' expectations about a reversal in the economy. Overall, our results highlight the importance of economic fundamentals for explaining the variations in option prices and the pricing kernel.

Download or read book The Effects of Investor Sentiment on Speculative Trading and Prices of Stock and Index Options written by Michael L. Lemmon and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find that the demand for stock option positions that increase exposure to the underlying is positively related to measures of investor sentiment and past market returns, while the demand for index options is invariant to these factors. These differences in trading patterns are reflected in differences in the composition of traders in the different types of options -- Options on stocks are actively traded by individual investors, while trades in index options are more often motivated by hedging demands of sophisticated investors. Consistent with a demand based view of option pricing, we find that sentiment is related to time-series variation in the slope of the implied volatility smile of stock options, but has little impact on the prices of index options. The pricing impact is more pronounced in options with a higher concentration of unsophisticated investors and in options with higher hedging costs. Our results provide new evidence factors not related to fundamentals affect price of securities actively traded by noise traders.

Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.

Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.

Download or read book Factor Momentum Investor Sentiment and Option Implied Volatility Scaling written by Jere Rutanen and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Factor momentum produces robust average returns that exhibit a similar economic magnitude as documented for stock price momentum. To the extent that the PEAD factor captures mispricing, winner factors profit from being long on underpriced stocks and short on overpriced stocks. Oppositely, loser factors' negative exposure to the PEAD factor suggests that loser factors capture mispricing by being long on overpriced stocks and short on underpriced stocks. Option-implied volatility scaling increases both the economic magnitude and statistical significance of factor momentum. Factor momentum is not exposed to the same crashes as stock price momentum and could therefore serve as a hedge for stock price momentum crash risks.

Download or read book Inefficient Markets written by Andrei Shleifer and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-03-09 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

Download or read book The Option Advisor written by Bertram J. Schaeffer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-10-24 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kluge und profitable Strategien für den Optionshandel - hier lernt jeder etwas Neues, ob Einsteiger oder Profi im Investmentgeschäft! Informationen aus erster Hand von Bernard Schaeffer, einem regelmäßig zitierten Spezialisten, zu den Unterschieden zwischen Aktien- und Optionshandel, zur Risikoeinschätzung, zu Finanzmanagement und Handelsstrategien. (11/97)

Download or read book Basics of Option Trading written by Sankar Srinivasan and published by Srinivasan Sankara Narayanan. This book was released on 2023-04-23 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In "Basics of Option Trading," acclaimed author Sankar Srinivasan, a certified market professional of the National Stock Exchange of India, presents a comprehensive guide that demystifies the world of options trading. Whether you are a novice investor or an experienced trader looking to expand your knowledge, this book provides a solid foundation in understanding and leveraging options as powerful financial instruments. With a clear and concise writing style, Sankar Srinivasan unravels the complexities of options trading and introduces readers to the fundamental concepts and terminology. Starting from the ground up, you'll learn about the different types of options, the mechanics of option pricing, and the key factors influencing option values. The author's extensive experience in the financial industry shines through as he explains the various strategies and techniques employed by successful option traders. From covered calls and protective puts to vertical spreads and straddles, Sankar Srinivasan breaks down each strategy, highlighting their advantages and risks, and offers practical examples to illustrate their implementation. This book goes beyond theory by providing valuable insights into the real-world dynamics of option trading. You'll discover how to analyze market trends, identify profitable opportunities, and manage risk effectively. Sankar Srinivasan's expertise is complemented by his ability to convey complex ideas in a beginner-friendly manner, making this book an invaluable resource for traders of all levels. Whether your goal is to generate additional income, protect your investments, or enhance your trading strategies, this book equips you with the essential knowledge and skills to navigate the world of options trading with confidence. Master the art of options and unlock the potential for greater financial success.

Download or read book Using Option Implied Investor Sentiment Based on Industry Sectors in Equity Trading Strategy written by Juliet Lakhdari and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, the construction of sentiment based sectors indices provides evidence of the role of sentiment on cross-sectors returns. I examine the information content of out-of-money option variables for explaining sectors returns; specifically the put call ratio (volume), the put call ratio (open interest) and the implied volatility ratio, for predicting market returns at the sector level. Using data from 2003 to 2011, I construct ten monthly sector sentiment indices, free of idiosyncratic effects. I observe and analyze the overall effect of sentiment on market returns, the specific sector sentiment effect on sector returns. I found that the lag of the monthly sentiment is a contrarian predictor of the subsequent monthly market return. At the sector level, on the very short term (1 or 2 months lag), the contrarian feature remains, while two positive relation were noted on anterior lags. The sensitivity to sentiment varies in the cross-section, except the telecommunication sentiment that was not found to be significant. On the cross-section, the discrepancies observed as per coefficient suggest the sector are not all subject to the same sentiment (time) and to the same extent (coefficient). A structural break could be observed from 2009, suggesting the financial crisis may have influence investor sentiment. Finally, when assessing the profitability of exploiting the sector sentiment indices, I found that using the sectors sentiment indices may brings positive returns versus a simple buy and hold strategy on the S&P500.

Download or read book Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading written by H. Nejat Seyhun and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000-02-28 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to profit from information about insider trading. The term insider trading refers to the stock transactions of the officers, directors, and large shareholders of a firm. Many investors believe that corporate insiders, informed about their firms' prospects, buy and sell their own firm's stock at favorable times, reaping significant profits. Given the extra costs and risks of an active trading strategy, the key question for stock market investors is whether the publicly available insider-trading information can help them to outperform a simple passive index fund. Basing his insights on an exhaustive data set that captures information on all reported insider trading in all publicly held firms over the past twenty-one years—over one million transactions!—H. Nejat Seyhun shows how investors can use insider information to their advantage. He documents the magnitude and duration of the stock price movements following insider trading, determinants of insiders' profits, and the risks associated with imitating insider trading. He looks at the likely performance of individual firms and of the overall stock market, and compares the value of what one can learn from insider trading with commonly used measures of value such as price-earnings ratio, book-to-market ratio, and dividend yield.

Download or read book Options Markets written by John C. Cox and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.

Download or read book Investor Sentiment and the Commodity Basis written by Werner Schnell and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contributes to the ongoing research about whether accusing speculators for irrational exuberance is really justified. In particular, I investigate the effect of investor sentiment on the commodity market. For this analysis I construct a sentiment index as the first principal component of option implied volatility and TED spread. The common criticism on this kind of analysis is that the sentiment index might not only contain irrational exaggerations but also changes in fundamental variables. To address this objection, on the one hand I orthogonalize the index on a number of macroeconomic variables, on the other hand I use the commodity basis as a dependent variable instead of the prices. The assumption is that change in fundamentals should have an effect on spot and futures prices likewise but sentiment asymmetrically affects only futures market. To my knowledge, I am the first one that conducts this kind of analyses. While I do not find any significant effect of the sentiment index on the commodity basis, I find a significant effect for returns. This suggests that the sentiment index, even after orthogonalization, is still contaminated with fundamental variables and consequently does not measure only pure irrational behavior. Even after controlling for variables proposed by the storage and expectation theory, the result stays insignificant. Moreover, I also do not find a significant effect of investor sentiment on open speculative positions and on the inventory holdings.

Download or read book Option Prices and Model Free Measurement of Implied Herd Behavior in Stock Markets written by Daniël Linders and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we introduce two classes of indices which can be used to measure the market perception concerning the degree of dependency that exists between a set of random variables, representing different stock prices at a fixed future date.The construction of these measures is based on the theory of comonotonicity. Both types of herd behavior indices are model-free and risk-neutral, derived from available option data. Depending on its particular definition, each index represents a particular aspect of the market sentiment concerning future co-movement of the underlying stock prices.

Download or read book An Investor Sentiment Barometer Greek Implied Volatility Index written by Costas Siriopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper a new measure of Greek stock market volatility based on the prices of FTSE/ATHEX-20 index options is proposed. Greek Implied Volatility Index is calculated using the model-free methodology that involves option prices summations and is independent from the Black and Scholes pricing formula. The specific method is applied for the first time in a peripheral and illiquid market as the Athens Exchange.The empirical findings of this paper show that the proposed volatility index includes information about future realized volatility beyond that contained in past volatility and in addition, show that there is a statistically significant negative and asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between the returns of the implied volatility index and the underlying equity index. Finally, the volatility transmission effects on the Greek stock exchange from two leading markets, namely the New York Stock Exchange and the Deutsche Bouml;rse, are tested and documented.

Download or read book Trading Against the Crowd written by John F. Summa and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-10-27 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Efficient market theorists contend that markets are random and thus not predictable. With the publication of Trading Against theCrowd, however, noted author, economist, and professional trader John Summa convincingly shows that investor sentiment can be incorporated into profitable stock and stock market trading systems. In this groundbreaking book, Summa explains how to use popular gauges of crowd psychology, such as put/call ratios, option-implied volatility, short sales, investor surveys, and advisory opinion to trade against, or contrary to, prevailing market sentiment. He also makes compelling arguments against the efficient markets hypothesis with the presentation of his own quantitative weekly bear and bull news-flow intensity indices, which he builds from news scans. This data series, and other popular measures of crowd psychology, are processed through custom indicators that are programmed into profitable trading systems, such as Squeeze Play I & II, Tsunami Sentiment Wave, and the Fourth Estate. Trading Against the Crowd is the first book to provide a comprehensive assessment of investor crowd psychology, offering valuable market timing tools and trading techniques, including: MetaStock and Trade Station system and custom indicator code; comparative statistical studies of CBOE, OEX, and equity-only put/call ratios; straightforward instructions for combining price triggers with sentiment indicators; a practical guide to understanding put/call ratios, short sales, investor surveys, newsletter opinion, and stock market news-flow intensity; how to use LEAP options as trading vehicles to avoid use of stop loss orders; use of put/call ratios for trading the Treasury bond futures market; and test results and evaluation of trading system performance. Many of today’s professional money managers rely on investor sentiment for improved market timing. They know that at extremes of market sentiment, markets tend to be the most predictable.Trading Against the Crowd shows how you can begin to profit from these short- to medium-term sentiment waves generated by the actions of the speculative crowd. Put into practice powerful sentiment data using thoroughly back-tested trading systems, and rise above the herd mentality of the investor crowd, where potentially large profits await.

Download or read book Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: