Download or read book Intrinsic Expectations Persistence written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the expectations behavior of individual responses in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the University of Michiganâ€TMs Survey Research Center survey of consumers, and the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. It finds that the most robust feature of all of these expectations measures is that respondents inefficiently revise their forecasts, significantly underreacting to new information. As a consequence, revisions smooth through arriving information, and expectations forget past information at a rapid rate and appear to anchor to the unconditional mean or other salient anchors. The paper then examines the micro-data evidence bearing on the hypotheses tested by Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who suggest that aggregate surveys may conform to key predictions of the sticky-information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and/or the noisy-information model of Maćkowiak and Wiederholt (2009). This paper finds considerably less coherence with these models in the micro data. The paper also provides evidence that distinguishes this behavior from learning, suggesting that the inefficient incorporation of information is much more important quantitatively than least-squares learning in these expectations measures. Finally, this empirical regularity may bear important implications for macroeconomic dynamics, as illustrated in the last sections of the paper, as it provides a microbased foundation for an earlier paperâ€TMs finding that intrinsic persistence in expectations may be a key source of macroeconomic persistence (Fuhrer 2017). The paper sketches a model in which agentsâ€TM inefficient updating of expectations induces excess smoothness in expectations, imparting persistence to macro variables that is due strictly to the expectations formation process.

Download or read book Improving Adult Literacy Instruction written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-04-26 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A high level of literacy in both print and digital media is required for negotiating most aspects of 21st-century life, including supporting a family, education, health, civic participation, and competitiveness in the global economy. Yet, more than 90 million U.S. adults lack adequate literacy. Furthermore, only 38 percent of U.S. 12th graders are at or above proficient in reading. Improving Adult Literacy Instruction synthesizes the research on literacy and learning to improve literacy instruction in the United States and to recommend a more systemic approach to research, practice, and policy. The book focuses on individuals ages 16 and older who are not in K-12 education. It identifies factors that affect literacy development in adolescence and adulthood in general, and examines their implications for strengthening literacy instruction for this population. It also discusses technologies for learning that can assist with multiple aspects of teaching, assessment,and accommodations for learning. There is inadequate knowledge about effective instructional practices and a need for better assessment and ongoing monitoring of adult students' proficiencies, weaknesses, instructional environments, and progress, which might guide instructional planning. Improving Adult Literacy Instruction recommends a program of research and innovation to validate, identify the boundaries of, and extend current knowledge to improve instruction for adults and adolescents outside school. The book is a valuable resource for curriculum developers, federal agencies such as the Department of Education, administrators, educators, and funding agencies.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics 3A written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What tools are available for setting and analyzing monetary policy? World-renowned contributors examine recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Explores the models and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies - Raises new questions about the volume, price, and availability of credit in the 2007-2010 downturn - Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years

Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics Vols 3A 3B Set written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Newnes. This book was released on 1990 with total page 1729 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How have monetary policies matured during the last decade? The recent downturn in economies worldwide have put monetary policies in a new spotlight. In addition to their investigations of new tools, models, and assumptions, they look carefully at recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They also reexamine standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and other fundamentals. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis Explores the policies and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years

Download or read book Intrinsic Motivation written by Edward L. Deci and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As I begin to write this Preface, I feel a rush of excitement. I have now finished the book; my gestalt is coming into completion. Throughout the months that I have been writing this, I have, indeed, been intrinsically motivated. Now that it is finished I feel quite competent and self-determining (see Chapter 2). Whether or not those who read the book will perceive me that way is also a concern of mine (an extrinsic one), but it is a wholly separate issue from the intrinsic rewards I have been experiencing. This book presents a theoretical perspective. It reviews an enormous amount of research which establishes unequivocally that intrinsic motivation exists. Also considered herein are various approaches to the conceptualizing of intrinsic motivation. The book concentrates on the approach which has developed out of the work of Robert White (1959), namely, that intrinsically motivated behaviors are ones which a person engages in so that he may feel competent and self-determining in relation to his environment. The book then considers the development of intrinsic motiva tion, how behaviors are motivated intrinsically, how they relate to and how intrinsic motivation is extrinsically motivated behaviors, affected by extrinsic rewards and controls. It also considers how changes in intrinsic motivation relate to changes in attitudes, how people attribute motivation to each other, how the attribution process is motivated, and how the process of perceiving motivation (and other internal states) in oneself relates to perceiving them in others.

Download or read book Leveraged written by Moritz Schularick and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.

Download or read book Uruguay written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uruguay’s inflation and inflation expectations exceed the inflation target, and the gap has been widening in recent years. To help bring it to the mid-point of the target, Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) needs to maintain a tightening bias in addition to strengthening its communication. This paper examined the factors behind the composition of FDI flows to Uruguay and suggested that strong institutions and macroeconomic stability have helped attract FDI to the secondary and tertiary sectors. Flexibility of the labor market, financial deepening, and the quality of infrastructure can further this improvement.

Download or read book Improving Adult Literacy Instruction written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-08-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Virtually everyone needs a high level of literacy in both print and digital media to negotiate most aspects of 21st century life-succeeding in a competitive job market, supporting a family, navigating health information, and participating in civic activities. Yet, according to a recent survey estimate, more than 90 million adults in the United States lack the literacy skills needed for fully productive and secure lives. At the request of the U.S. Department of Education, the National Research Council convened a committee of experts from many disciplines to synthesize research on literacy and learning in order to improve instruction for those served in adult education in the U.S. The committee's report, Improving Adult Literacy Instruction: Options for Practice and Research, recommends a program of research and innovation to gain a better understanding of adult literacy learners, improve instruction, and create the supports adults need for learning and achievement. Improving Adult Literacy Instruction: Supporting Learning and Motivation, which is based on the report, describes principles of effective instruction to guide those who design and administer adult literacy programs and courses. It also explores ways to motivate learners to persist in their studies, which is crucial given the thousands of hours of study and practice required to become proficient.The booklet concludes with a look at technologies that show promise for supporting individual learners and freeing busy adults from having to be in a particular place in order to practice their literacy skills. Although this booklet is not intended as a "how to" manual for instructors, teachers may also find the information presented here to be helpful as they plan and deliver instruction.

Download or read book The Motivation Cognition Interface written by Catalina E. Kopetz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-11 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume honors the work of Arie W. Kruglanski. It represents a collection of chapters written by Arie’s former students, friends, and collaborators. The chapters are rather diverse and cover a variety of topics from politics, including international terrorism, to health related issues, such as addiction and self-control, to basic psychological principles, such as motivation and self-regulation, the formation of attitudes, social influence, and interpersonal relationships. What these chapters have in common is that they have all been inspired by Arie’s revolutionary work on human motivation and represent the authors’ attempt to apply the basic principles of motivation to the understanding of diverse phenomena.

Download or read book Expectations and Actions written by Norman T. Feather and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-29 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1982, this book examines the current status of expectancy-value models in psychology. The focus is upon cognitive models that relate action to the perceived attractiveness or aversiveness of expected consequences. A person’s behavior is seen to bear some relation to the expectations the person holds and the subjective value of the consequences that might occur following the action. Despite widespread interest in the expectancy-value (valence) approach at the time, there was no book that looked at its current status and discussed its strengths and its weaknesses, using contributions from some of the theorists who were involved in its original and subsequent development and from others who were influenced by it or had cause to examine the approach closely. This book was planned to meet this need. The chapters in this book relate to such areas as achievement motivation, attribution theory, information feedback, organizational psychology, the psychology of values and attitudes, and decision theory and in some cases they advance the expectancy-value approach further and, in other cases, point to some of its deficiencies.

Download or read book How People Learn II written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are many reasons to be curious about the way people learn, and the past several decades have seen an explosion of research that has important implications for individual learning, schooling, workforce training, and policy. In 2000, How People Learn: Brain, Mind, Experience, and School: Expanded Edition was published and its influence has been wide and deep. The report summarized insights on the nature of learning in school-aged children; described principles for the design of effective learning environments; and provided examples of how that could be implemented in the classroom. Since then, researchers have continued to investigate the nature of learning and have generated new findings related to the neurological processes involved in learning, individual and cultural variability related to learning, and educational technologies. In addition to expanding scientific understanding of the mechanisms of learning and how the brain adapts throughout the lifespan, there have been important discoveries about influences on learning, particularly sociocultural factors and the structure of learning environments. How People Learn II: Learners, Contexts, and Cultures provides a much-needed update incorporating insights gained from this research over the past decade. The book expands on the foundation laid out in the 2000 report and takes an in-depth look at the constellation of influences that affect individual learning. How People Learn II will become an indispensable resource to understand learning throughout the lifespan for educators of students and adults.

Download or read book Europe at the Crossroads written by Basil R. Jones and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a continent, the economy of Europe is currently the largest on Earth. The European Union, or EU, an intergovernmental body composed of most of the European states, is one of the two largest in the world. Of the member states in the EU, Germany has the largest national economy. Thirteen EU countries share a common unit of currency, the Euro. Major economic sectors in Europe include agriculture, manufacturing, and investment. The majority of the EU's trade is with the United States, China, India, Russia and non-member European states. This book focuses on the latest economic and political issues in Europe.

Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-11-16 with total page 971 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "What tools are available for setting and analyzing monetary policy? World-renowned contributors examine recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship." [source : 4e de couv.].

Download or read book Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence written by Christopher J. Erceg and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Group Centered Prevention Programs for At Risk Students written by Elaine Clanton Harpine and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-09 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: School psychologists, counselors, and educators in the K-12 setting face the daunting responsibility of finding balance between mandated testing, students’ mental-health concerns, and additional academic help for at-risk students. One solution to this dilemma is to implement a school-based mental health approach that combines learning and counseling needs into a single program. Several types of successful programs are available, though week-long intensive programs have recently increased in popularity. Group-Centered Prevention Programs for At-Risk Students focuses on the development of such a week-long prevention program, and provides professionals with step-by-step directions to create their own program. It also focuses on the use of group-centered interventions as an opportunity to prevent at-risk behaviors as a means of correcting or changing dysfunctional behavior. This highly readable volume addresses such challenging issues as: Using self-reflection to teach writing skills. Increasing interpersonal interaction while honing etiquette. Enhancing group acceptance and reading comprehension. Rebuilding self-efficacy by increasing word recognition and decoding skills. With its solid research foundation combined with clear, practical program descriptions, this volume is an essential addition to the libraries of researchers and practitioners alike in the disciplines of school psychology, education, social work, psychotherapy and counseling, and clinical child psychology.