Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Download or read book Service Parts Management written by Nezih Altay and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-24 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the pressure of time-based competition increasing, and customers demanding faster service, availability of service parts becomes a critical component of manufacturing and servicing operations. Service Parts Management first focuses on intermittent demand forecasting and then on the management of service parts inventories. It guides researchers and practitioners in finding better management solutions to their problems and is both an excellent reference for key concepts and a leading resource for further research. Demand forecasting techniques are presented for parametric and nonparametric approaches, and multi echelon cases and inventory pooling are also considered. Inventory control is examined in the continuous and periodic review cases, while the following are all examined in the context of forecasting: • error measures, • distributional assumptions, and • decision trees. Service Parts Management provides the reader with an overview and a detailed treatment of the current state of the research available on the forecasting and inventory management of items with intermittent demand. It is a comprehensive review of service parts management and provides a starting point for researchers, postgraduate students, and anyone interested in forecasting or managing inventory.

Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Download or read book Inventory Optimization written by Nicolas Vandeput and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2020-08-24 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book . . . Nicolas Vandeput hacks his way through the maze of quantitative supply chain optimizations. This book illustrates how the quantitative optimization of 21st century supply chains should be crafted and executed. . . . Vandeput is at the forefront of a new and better way of doing supply chains, and thanks to a richly illustrated book, where every single situation gets its own illustrating code snippet, so could you. --Joannes Vermorel, CEO, Lokad Inventory Optimization argues that mathematical inventory models can only take us so far with supply chain management. In order to optimize inventory policies, we have to use probabilistic simulations. The book explains how to implement these models and simulations step-by-step, starting from simple deterministic ones to complex multi-echelon optimization. The first two parts of the book discuss classical mathematical models, their limitations and assumptions, and a quick but effective introduction to Python is provided. Part 3 contains more advanced models that will allow you to optimize your profits, estimate your lost sales and use advanced demand distributions. It also provides an explanation of how you can optimize a multi-echelon supply chain based on a simple—yet powerful—framework. Part 4 discusses inventory optimization thanks to simulations under custom discrete demand probability functions. Inventory managers, demand planners and academics interested in gaining cost-effective solutions will benefit from the "do-it-yourself" examples and Python programs included in each chapter. Events around the book Link to a De Gruyter Online Event in which the author Nicolas Vandeput together with Stefan de Kok, supply chain innovator and CEO of Wahupa; Koen Cobbaert, Director in the S&O Industry practice of PwC Belgium; Bram Desmet, professor of operations & supply chain at the Vlerick Business School in Ghent; and Karl-Eric Devaux, Planning Consultant, Hatmill, discuss about models for inventory optimization. The event will be moderated by Eric Wilson, Director of Thought Leadership for Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF): https://youtu.be/565fDQMJEEg

Download or read book Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control written by Colin Lewis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-05-23 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This practical book covers the forecasting- and inventory control methods used in commercial, retail and manufacturing companies. Colin Lewis explains the theory and practice of current demand forecasting methods, the links between forecasts produced as a result of analysing demand data and the various methods by which this information, together with cost information on stocked items, is used to establish the controlling parameters of the most commonly used inventory control systems. The demand forecasting section of the book concentrates on the family of short-term forecasting models based on the exponentially weighted average and its many variants and also a group of medium-term forecasting models based on a time series, curve fitting approach. The inventory control sections investigate the re-order level policy and re-order cycle policy and indicate how these two processes can be operated at minimum cost while offering a high level of customer service.

Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Managers written by Stephan Kolassa and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-08-17 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

Download or read book Change and Chance Embraced written by Hans Levenbach and published by . This book was released on 2017-12-23 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified and practical orientation to demand forecasting and demand management for supply chain professionals, students and practitioners. Presentation of forecasting as a process, rather than a series of disconnected techniques, incorporating graphical tools of looking at historical data, data cleaning, and exploratory data analysis. Complementing traditional and modern methods for root-cause analysis and exception handling with 'big data' and predictive analytics.

Download or read book Statistical Methods for Forecasting written by Bovas Abraham and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!" -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates." -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.

Download or read book Advances in Production Management Systems Smart Manufacturing for Industry 4 0 written by Ilkyeong Moon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-24 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set IFIP AICT 535 and 536 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the International IFIP WG 5.7 Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2018, held in Seoul, South Korea, in August 2018. The 129 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 149 submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: lean and green manufacturing; operations management in engineer-to-order manufacturing; product-service systems, customer-driven innovation and value co-creation; collaborative networks; smart production for mass customization; global supply chain management; knowledge based production planning and control; knowledge based engineering; intelligent diagnostics and maintenance solutions for smart manufacturing; service engineering based on smart manufacturing capabilities; smart city interoperability and cross-platform implementation; manufacturing performance management in smart factories; industry 4.0 - digital twin; industry 4.0 - smart factory; and industry 4.0 - collaborative cyber-physical production and human systems.

Download or read book Forecasting Fundamentals written by Nada Sanders and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.

Download or read book Improving Forecasts with Integrated Business Planning written by Ganesh Sankaran and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides both a broad overview of the forecasting process, covering technological and human aspects alike, and deep insights into algorithms and platform functionalities in the IBP toolbox required to maximize forecast accuracy. Rich in technical and business explanations, it addresses short-, medium- and long-term forecasting processes using functionalities available in demand planning and demand sensing. There are also several theoretical concepts underpinning the algorithms discussed; these are explained with numerical examples to help demystify the IBP forecasting toolbox. Beyond standard procedures, the book also discusses custom approaches (e.g. new segmentation criteria, new outlier detection and correction methods) and new methods (e.g. the use of Markov chains for forecasting sporadic demands), etc. It subsequently benchmarks common practices using these innovative approaches and discusses the results. As measurement is an important precondition for improvement, an entire chapter is devoted to discussing process improvement and value using the Six Sigma methodology. In closing, the book provides several useful tips and tricks that should come in handy during project implementation. .

Download or read book Advanced Analytics and Learning on Temporal Data written by Vincent Lemaire and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-02 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th ECML PKDD Workshop on Advanced Analytics and Learning on Temporal Data, AALTD 2021, held during September 13-17, 2021. The workshop was planned to take place in Bilbao, Spain, but was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 12 full papers presented in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 21 submissions. They focus on the following topics: Temporal Data Clustering; Classification of Univariate and Multivariate Time Series; Multivariate Time Series Co-clustering; Efficient Event Detection; Modeling Temporal Dependencies; Advanced Forecasting and Prediction Models; Cluster-based Forecasting; Explanation Methods for Time Series Classification; Multimodal Meta-Learning for Time Series Regression; and Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection.

Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

Download or read book Data Science for Supply Chain Forecast written by Nicolas Vandeput and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-11-12 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Science for Supply Chain Forecast Data Science for Supply Chain Forecast is a book for practitioners focusing on data science and machine learning; it demonstrates how both are closely interlinked in order to create an advanced forecast for supply chain. As one will discover in this book, artificial intelligence (AI) & machine learning (ML) are not simply a question of coding skills. Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. The story behind these models is one of experimentation, of observation and of constant questioning; a true scientific method must be applied to supply chain. In the data science field as well as that of the supply chain, simple questions do not come with simple answers. In order to resolve these questions, one needs to be both a scientist as well as to use the correct tools. In this book, we will discuss both. Is this Book for me? This book has been written for supply chain practitioners, forecasters and analysts who are looking to go the extra mile. You do not need technical IT skills to start using the models of this book. You do not need a dedicated server or expensive software licenses: you solely need your own computer. You do not need a PhD in mathematics: mathematics will only be utilized as a tool to tweak and understand the models. In the majority of the cases - especially when it comes to machine learning - a deep understanding of the mathematical inner workings of a model will not be necessary in order to optimize it and understand its limitations. Reviews "In an age where analytics and machine learning are taking on larger roles in the business forecasting, Nicolas' book is perfect solution for professionals who need to combine practical supply chain experience with the mathematical and technological tools that can help us predict the future more reliably." Daniel Stanton - Author, Supply Chain Management For Dummies "Open source statistical toolkits have progressed tremendously over the last decade. Nicolas demonstrates that these toolkits are more than enough to start addressing real-world forecasting challenges as found in supply chains. Moreover, through its hands-on approach, this book is accessible to a large audience of supply chain practitioners. The supply chain of the 21st century will be data-driven and Nicolas gets it perfectly." Joannes Vermorel - CEO Lokad "This book is unique in its kind. It explains the basics of Python using basic traditional forecasting techniques and shows how machine learning is revolutionizing the forecasting domain. Nicolas has done an outstanding job explaining a technical subject in an easily accessible way. A must-read for any supply chain professional." Professor Bram Desmet - CEO Solventure "This book is before anything a practical and business-oriented "DIY" user manual to help planners move into 21st-century demand planning. The breakthrough comes from several tools and techniques available to all, and which thanks to Nicolas' precise and concrete explanations can now be implemented in real business environments by any "normal" planner. I can confirm that Nicolas' learnings are based on real-life experience and can tremendously help on improving top and bottom lines." Henri-Xavier Benoist - VP Supply Chain Bridegstone EMEA

Download or read book Time Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space