Download or read book Global Sensitivity Analysis written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis in Practice written by Andrea Saltelli and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-07-16 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.

Download or read book Modern Business Statistics written by Ronald L. Iman and published by Wiley. This book was released on 1989-01-20 with total page 910 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapters show a more natural logical flow, and topics covered reflect current business statistical practice. There is new material on random sampling, stem and leaf plots, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, estimation, correlation, and formulation of general linear models for fitting data.

Download or read book Hydrological Drought written by Lena M. Tallaksen and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The majority of the examples are taken from regions where the rivers run most of the year.

Download or read book Water Resource Systems Planning and Management written by Daniel P. Loucks and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license. This revised, updated textbook presents a systems approach to the planning, management, and operation of water resources infrastructure in the environment. Previously published in 2005 by UNESCO and Deltares (Delft Hydraulics at the time), this new edition, written again with contributions from Jery R. Stedinger, Jozef P. M. Dijkman, and Monique T. Villars, is aimed equally at students and professionals. It introduces readers to the concept of viewing issues involving water resources as a system of multiple interacting components and scales. It offers guidelines for initiating and carrying out water resource system planning and management projects. It introduces alternative optimization, simulation, and statistical methods useful for project identification, design, siting, operation and evaluation and for studying post-planning issues. The authors cover both basin-wide and urban water issues and present ways of identifying and evaluating alternatives for addressing multiple-purpose and multi-objective water quantity and quality management challenges. Reinforced with cases studies, exercises, and media supplements throughout, the text is ideal for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in water resource planning and management as well as for practicing planners and engineers in the field.

Download or read book Atmospheric Data Analysis written by Roger Daley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-11-26 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intended to fill a void in the atmospheric science literature, this self-contained text outlines the physical and mathematical basis of all aspects of atmospheric analysis as well as topics important in several other fields outside of it, including atmospheric dynamics and statistics.

Download or read book Calibration of Watershed Models written by Qingyun Duan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-01-10 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Science and Application Series, Volume 6. During the past four decades, computer-based mathematical models of watershed hydrology have been widely used for a variety of applications including hydrologic forecasting, hydrologic design, and water resources management. These models are based on general mathematical descriptions of the watershed processes that transform natural forcing (e.g., rainfall over the landscape) into response (e.g., runoff in the rivers). The user of a watershed hydrology model must specify the model parameters before the model is able to properly simulate the watershed behavior.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality written by M.B. Beck and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977, it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November 1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method ological developments in addressing problems associated with uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of field data will not always be the dominant problem for water quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation, assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained.

Download or read book River Water Quality Model written by P. Reichert and published by IWA Publishing. This book was released on 2001-08-31 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Scientific and Technical Report (STR) presents the findings of the IWA Task Group on River Water Quality Modelling (RWQM). The task group was formed to create a scientific and technical base from which to formulate standardized, consistent river water quality models and guidelines for their implementation. This STR presents the first outcome in this effort: River Water Quality Model No. 1 (RWQM1). As background to the development of River Water Quality Model No.1, the Task Group completed a critical evaluation of the current state of the practice in water quality modelling. A major limitation in model formulation is the continued reliance on BOD as the primary state variable, despite the fact BOD does not include all biodegradable matter. A related difficulty is the poor representation of benthic flux terms. As a result of these limitations, it is impossible to close mass balances completely in most existing models. These various limitations in current river water quality models impair their predictive ability in situations of marked changes in a river's pollutant load, streamflow, morphometry, or other basic characteristics. RWQM 1 is intended to serve as a framework for river water quality models that overcome these deficiencies in traditional water quality models and most particularly the failure to close mass balances between the water column and sediment. To these ends, the model incorporates fundamental water quality components and processes to characterise carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, O, N, and P) cycling instead of biochemical oxygen demand as used in traditional models. The model is presented in terms of process and components represented via a 'Petersen stoichiometry matrix', the same approach used for the IWA Activated Sludge Models. The full RWQM1 includes 24 components and 30 processes. The report provides detailed examples on reducing the numbers of components and processes to fit specific water quality problems. Thus, the model provides a framework for both complicated and simplified models. Detailed explanations of the model components, process equations, stoichiometric parameters, and kinetic parameters are provided, as are example parameter values and two case studies. The STR is intended to launch a participatory process of model development, application, and refinement. RWQM1 provides a framework for this process, but the goal of the Task Group is to involve water quality professionals worldwide in the continued work developing a new water quality modelling approach. This text will be an invaluable reference for researchers and graduate students specializing in water resources, hydrology, water quality, or environmental modelling in departments of environmental engineering, natural resources, civil engineering, chemical engineering, environmental sciences, and ecology. Water resources engineers, water quality engineers and technical specialists in environmental consultancy, government agencies or regulated industries will also value this critical assessment of the state of practice in water quality modelling. Key Features presents a unique new technical approach to river water quality modelling provides a detailed technical presentation of the RWQM1 water quality process model gives an informative critical evaluation of the state of the practice in water quality modelling, and problems with those practices provides a step by step procedure to develop a water quality model Scientific & Technical Report No. 12

Download or read book Rivers Physical Fluvial and Environmental Processes written by Paweł Rowiński and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-02 with total page 629 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the domain of research and investigation of physical, chemical and biological attributes of flowing water, and it deals with a cross-disciplinary field of study combining physical, geophysical, hydraulic, technological, environmental interests. It aims to equip engineers, geophysicists, managers working in water-related arenas as well as advanced students and researchers with the most up to date information available on the state of knowledge about rivers, particularly their physical, fluvial and environmental processes. Information from various but also interrelated areas available in one volume is the main benefit for potential readers. All chapters are prepared by leading experts from the leading research laboratories from all over the world.

Download or read book Scale Issues in Hydrological Modelling written by J. D. Kalma and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1995-09-11 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a growing need for appropriate models which address the management of land and water resources and ecosystems at large space and time scales. Theories of non-linear hydrological processes must be extrapolated to large-scale, three-dimensional natural systems such as drainage basins, flood plains and wetlands. This book reports on recent progress in research on scale issues in hydrological modelling. It brings together 27 papers from two special issues of the journal Hydrological Processes. The book makes a significant contribution towards developing research strategies for linking model parameterisations across a range of temporal and spatial scales. The papers selected for this book reflect the tremendous advances which have been made in research into scale issues in hydrological modelling during the last ten years.

Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling written by Yan Wang and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-12 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

Download or read book Environmental Remediation 91 written by United States. Department of Energy. Environmental Restoration Conference and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 980 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Predictions in Ungauged Basins written by Murugesu Sivapalan and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis CRIDA written by Mendoza, Guillermo and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-08-25 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many regulations issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are based on the results of computer models. Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy. Given the critical role played by models, the EPA asked the National Research Council to assess scientific issues related to the agency's selection and use of models in its decisions. The book recommends a series of guidelines and principles for improving agency models and decision-making processes. The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.