Download or read book Inflation Forecasts in Asia and the Pacific written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until the global financial crisis of 2008-09, central banks celebrated the achievement of lower and more stable inflation rates. With a few exceptions, this accomplishment was a global one. Motivated by concerns over whether the relentless easing of policy in economies most stricken by the US and euro zone financial crises may lead to higher future inflation, this paper examines inflation forecast performance along several dimensions. The focus is on 12 economies in Asia and the Pacific as well as inflation performance in the United States and the euro zone. The principal findings of the paper are as follows. Whether forecasts portend an unanchoring of expectations depends crucially on whether central banks convince the optimists or the pessimists amongst forecasters. Second, crisis times are precisely when central banks have the greatest flexibility to exploit deviations from some inflation objective. Third, forecasters can express a large degree of disagreement with central banks over one-year inflation forecasts especially during stressful economic times. The notion that forecasters essentially adopt or mimic central bank forecasts does not hold at all times, and especially not during stressful economic times.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2420025" Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific.
Download or read book Forecast Disagreement and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Asia Pacific Region written by Pierre L. Siklos and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the behaviour of inflation forecasts from a variety of sources (ie Consensus and other professional forecasters, international and domestic financial institutions, central banks) with the aim of measuring the size and evolution of forecast disagreements and their proximate sources (ie economic versus institutional determinants). An additional objective is to ascertain the extent to which inflationary expectations are anchored, the role played by domestic versus international shocks on changes in inflation forecasts, and whether developments since the global financial crisis have resulted in noticeable changes in the behaviour of inflationary expectations.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2248714" Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific.
Download or read book How Anchored are Inflation Expectations in Asia Evidence from Surveys of Professional Forecasters written by Aaron N. Mehrotra and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how solidly inflation expectations are anchored in Asia, using inflation forecasts by professional forecasters from Consensus Economics. We examine inflation expectations using three different methods. First, we assess the behaviour of longer-term (both five-year-ahead and two-year-ahead) forecasts in the different economies over time. Second, we assess the uncertainty related to inflation expectations by computing an indicator of forecast disagreement. Third, we use a novel method to model the behaviour of forecasts over different horizons, capturing the tendency for inflation forecasts to converge towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon becomes shorter. This analytically simple method is based on an exponential decay function, and provides a convenient way to parameterise the degree to which inflation expectations are anchored. Overall, we find that inflation expectations generally appear to be well anchored in the region. We close with some policy implications.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2420025" Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific.
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2020 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing Asia has suffered as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Growth, trade, and tourism collapsed in 2020, leading to the region’s first economic contraction in nearly 6 decades. Governments across Asia acted quickly to contain the virus and its economic effects, and signs of bottoming out have now appeared. Inflation remains benign, constrained by depressed demand and declining food prices. A prolonged pandemic is the primary downside risk to the outlook. Persistent or renewed outbreaks and a return to stringent containment could possibly derail the recovery and trigger financial turmoil. Recovery depends on measures to address the health crisis and on continued policy support. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of wellness, both physical and mental. Wellness—the pursuit of holistic health and well-being—is a component of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. This report evaluates the state of wellness in Asia, documents how the wellness economy is a large and growing part of the region’s economy, and discusses how policy makers can promote wellness by creating healthy living environments, encouraging physical activity and healthy diets, and enhancing workplace wellness.
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2018 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-04-01 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Download or read book Globalisation Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific written by Bank for International Settlements and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The People's Bank of China and the Bank for International Settlements co-hosted a research conference on "Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific" on 23-24 September 2013 in Beijing. This was the wrap-up conference for the BIS Asian Office's two-year research programme on globalisation and inflation that was launched by the Asian Consultative Council in February 2012. The event brought together senior officials and researchers from central banks, international organisations and academia. Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China made the opening remarks and former Governor Masaaki Shirakawa of the Bank of Japan delivered the keynote address. The research papers presented at the conference covered the dynamics of inflation forecasts in the region; the measurement of economic slack; supply chains and inflation spillovers; financial globalisation and the role of exchange rate in monetary policy; global commodity price cycles and their monetary policy implications; and the role of inflation in China's monetary policy rule. This volume is a collection of the speeches, presentations and a background paper from the conference.While the full publication can be downloaded using the above link, individual contributions are available separately:"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474025" Inflation Forecasts in Asia and the Pacific: Performance, Disagreement and Spillovers"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474027" Measuring Economic Slack in Asia and the Pacific"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474029" Is Inflation (or Deflation) "Always and Everywhere" a Monetary Phenomenon?"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474030" Real Globalisation and Price Spillovers in Asia and the Pacific"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474032" Responding to Exchange Rates in a Globalised World"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474034" Has Asian Emerging Market Monetary Policy Been Too Procyclical When Responding to Swings in Commodity Prices?"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474036" Inflation and China's Monetary Policy Reaction Function: 2002-2013"http://ssrn.com/abstract=2474717" How Anchored are Inflation Expectations in Asia? Evidence from Surveys of Professional Forecasters.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook Asia and the Pacific October 2022 written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-28 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 51⁄2 percent seen over the preceding two decades. Policy support is gradually being withdrawn as inflation rises and idle capacity is utilized, but monetary policy should be ready to tighten faster if the rise in core inflation turns out to be more persistent. The region’s rising public debt lev¬els call for continued fiscal consolidation, so interven¬tions to mitigate global food and energy shocks should be well targeted, temporary, and budget neutral. Structural reforms are needed to boost growth and mitigate the scarring that is expected from the pan¬demic, especially making up for lost schooling through investments in education and training, promoting diversification, addressing the debt overhang from the pandemic, and harnessing digitalization. Strong multilateralism—including through international organizations, the Group of Twenty and regional processes—will be needed to mitigate geo-economic fragmentation and deliver much needed progress on climate change commitments.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific May 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-05 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase this year to 4.6 percent, up from 3.8 percent in 2022, an upgrade of 0.3 percent from the October 2022 World Economic Outlook. This means the region would contribute over 70 percent to global growth. Asia’s dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resilient growth in India, while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023, in line with other regions. However, this dynamic outlook does not imply that policymakers in the region can afford to be complacent. The pressures from diminished global demand will weigh on the outlook. Headline inflation has been easing, but remains above targets in most countries, while core inflation has proven to be sticky. Although spillovers from turmoil in the European and US banking sectors have been limited thus far, vulnerabilities to global financial tightening and volatile market conditions, especially in the corporate and household sectors, remain elevated. Growth is expected to fall to 3.9 percent five years out, the lowest medium-term forecast in recent history, thus contributing to one of the lowest medium-term global growth forecasts since 1990.
Download or read book Globalisation Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research papers presented at the conference covered the dynamics of inflation forecasts in the region; the measurement of economic slack; supply chains and inflation spillovers; financial globalisation and the role of exchange rate in monetary policy; global commodity price cycles and their monetary policy implications; and the role of inflation in China's monetary policy rule. This volume is a collection of the speeches, presentations and a background paper from the conference."--Abstract.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Pacific Economic Outlook 2002 03 written by Pacific Economic Cooperation Council and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides economic forecasts from the Asia Pacific region coordinated by the Australian Pacific Economic Cooperation Committee which brings together government officials, academics and business people from twenty countries from the Pacific Rim to share expertise in search of broad-based answers to regional economic problems.
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-09-01 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in developing Asia is holding up against external headwinds. Robust domestic demand supported the region's large economies, and oil prices above expectations boosted prospects for many oil and gas exporters. Consumer prices are picking up with rising global fuel and food prices, but moderate inflation in several Asian economies has kept the regional average in check. Downside risks to the outlook are intensifying. If tightened more than investors expect, US monetary policy could accelerate capital outflow from Asian economies and put further depreciation pressure on regional currencies. Any escalation of the trade conflict could disrupt cross-border production links. Most economies remain robust, but policy makers must be ready to respond. In the years since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, sound domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and buoyant external conditions have supported developing Asia's rise to become an engine of the global economy. However, the changing global landscape poses new challenges to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability. This Update explores the key pockets of vulnerability and the policy options available to manage them. To fortify the region against heightened uncertainty, policy makers may need to deploy the full range of policy tools, while forging and safeguarding the sound fundamentals that support economic, social, and political stability.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2019 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 819 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The annual Asian Development Outlook, now in its 30th year, analyzes economic performance in the past year and forecasts performance in the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in developing Asia remain strong despite persistent external headwinds responsible for moderating expansion since 2017. Global trade and economic activity weakened toward the end of 2018, slowing growth in many economies in the region. The outlook is cloudy with risks that tilt to the downside. A drawn-out trade conflict could undermine trade and investment in the region, and US fiscal policy and the consequences of a disorderly Brexit could weigh on growth in the advanced economies and the People's Republic of China. Though the risk of sharp increases in US interest rates has subsided, policy makers must stay vigilant. Disasters are shaped by natural hazards and the dynamics of the economy, society, and environment in which they occur. They pose a growing threat to development and prosperity in the region, their consequences disproportionately severe in developing countries, especially for the poor and marginalized. As developing Asia is home to more than four-fifths of the people affected by disasters globally in the past 2 decades, the region must strengthen its disaster resilience. This means integrating disaster risk reduction into national development and investment plans, spending more on prevention for a better balance with spending on rescue and recovery, and pooling risk through insurance and reinsurance.
Download or read book Measuring Economic Slack written by James Morley and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
