Download or read book Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone Evidence from Survey Data written by Ivo J. M. Arnold and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.
Download or read book New Evidence on the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Sascha Möhrle and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area based on data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The analysis shows that the overall distribution of medium- and long-term inflation forecasts has changed considerably following the global financial crisis. Moreover, micro level expectations of professional forecasters are found to be sensitive to short-term economic developments. These patterns suggest that euro area inflation expectations are significantly less anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability in recent years compared to the pre-crisis period.
Download or read book Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB’s UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term
Download or read book Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations written by Jiaqian Chen and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations Consumption the Lower Bound written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the probability that a given consumer will make major purchases. Moreover, in line with the predictions of macroeconomic theory, the impact is stronger when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Also, using the estimated spending probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on aggregate private consumption. We find the effects to be economically relevant, especially when the lower bound is binding.
Download or read book The rationality of consumers inflation expectations written by M. Forsells and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area written by Tomasz Lyziak and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank's ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that longer-term inflation forecasts have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term forecasts and to actual HICP inflation in the post-crisis period. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term professional forecasts and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.
Download or read book Inflation Forecast Uncertainty written by Paolo Giordani and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations Evidence from the Euro Area written by Mr. Jiaqian Chen and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2022-09-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the current inflation is high, and declines when inflation is low, consistent with a zero lower bound of expectations. Fourth, overreaction of individual inflation forecasts to news increased after the global financial crisis (GFC). Fifth, the reaction of average expectations (and of actual inflation) to shocks became more muted post-GFC in the euro area, but not in the U.S.
Download or read book The Joint Dynamics of U S and Euro Area Inflation Rates written by Olesya V. Grishchenko and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use several U.S. and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation with time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the United States and in the euro area. Our methodology allows us to compute, in closed form, survey-consistent measures of inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty, inflation expectations anchoring, deflation probabilities and U.S. and euro-area inflation co-movements. Our results suggest strong commonalities between inflation dynamics in the two economies.
Download or read book Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations written by Tobias Rossmann and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals' response behavior and inflation expectations.
Download or read book Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty written by Olesya V. Grishchenko and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the US, while mild de-anchoring occurred in the euro-area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be equally anchored.
Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Download or read book A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement written by Robert W. Rich and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty Disagreement and Monetary Policy written by Alexander Glas and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
