Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia written by Maral Shamloo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.

Download or read book The Development of the Financial Sector in Southeast Europe written by Ingrid Matthäus-Maier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-19 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KfW has been assigned responsibility by the German government and several other donors for projects designed to reconstruct the financial landscapes of Southeast Europe. These activities are recognized as quite successful in building sustainable financial institutions that serve the small end of the market, with special emphasis on microenterprise and small business. The KfW-managed projects have contributed to the overall stability of financial sectors and to economic recovery and growth through employment creation and investment. This book reviews experience gained and analyses the reasons for the successes achieved, options for further improvement, and scope for replicability in other transition and developing economies. A particularly interesting feature is that relatively small amounts of public funds can catalyse financial markets in volatile environments.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin March 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-08 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research summaries in the March 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Foreign Direct Investment and the Crisis: Is This Time Different?" (by Yuko Kinoshita) and "Food Prices and Inflation" (by James P. Walsh). The Q&A covers seven questions on "Unemployment through the Prism of the Great Recession" (by Prakash Loungani). This issue also launches a new feature "Conversations with Visiting Scholars" with an interview with Tom Sargent, winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Also included in this issue are details on visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers, and information on the next issue of "IMF Economic Review."

Download or read book Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies written by Bruno Sergi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-07-24 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn more about the transitional economies of Central and Eastern Europe! This book examines the economic dynamics of Central and Eastern European post-Communist countries. It illuminates the paths these countries are taking toward restructuring their markets, increasing international trade, and bettering their connections with the European Union and other countries. Beginning with a comparative analysis of the three “P-governments”—Pigouvian, Partizan, and Paternalistic—and continuing with a discussion of the interrelated political and economic difficulties of transition, author Bruno Sergi proposes a surprising solution. Inspired by the Bruxelles consensus, he proposes that the European Commission should become a fourth “P-government,” replacing the role formerly played by the Washington consensus in the restructuring of post-Communist economies. Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies also explores: regional comparative macroeconomics the aftereffects of the Washington Consensus integration of Eastern and Western European economies interrelations between national and regional monetary activity political and economic policy reform involvement of European Union member countries We are living in historic times, and Economic Dynamics in Transitional Economies will be a welcome guide to the rough roads ahead. This thorough assessment of current political and economic realities will stimulate debate about new European paradigms, the role of the European Union, and the difficulties of post-Communist transition. These issues promise to be vital to the region’s success in the new century.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES The jobs and growth agenda should remain a top policy priority, with efforts focused on relaxing key constraints for domestic firms. Priorities include properly implementing and monitoring recent initiatives to enforce payment discipline in both public and private sector contracts, as well as upgrading the professional status of inspection bodies, clarifying their mandate, and streamlining their work. The public-sector led growth strategy will put pressure on other types of spending if consolidation is to proceed in the current low-tax environment. Investment spending should target gaps in transport and energy infrastructure to maximize the payoff for medium-term growth. At the same time, with public debt rising steadily to over 50 percent of GDP by 2017, fiscal policy should aim at reducing the deficit to below 2.6 percent of GDP by 2016. In the absence of further tax policy changes to boost revenues, a comprehensive spending review that seeks to minimize the growth impact of current expenditure compression should therefore be undertaken. More comprehensive public debt management is needed to support external sustainability. To further reduce risks, particularly currency risk, the strategy should be expanded to cover the debt of SOEs and contingent liabilities. Increased reliance on foreign currency borrowing also has important implications for central bank reserve developments and domestic liquidity that should be taken into account in evaluating government financing options. The monetary easing cycle has reached its end. The combination of relaxed financial conditions and tight prudential regulation has helped revive credit growth while preserving the health of the financial sector. While temporary supply-side developments have recently generated deflationary pressures, the focus of monetary policy henceforth should be on maintaining the attractiveness of holding denar-denominated assets in support of the exchange rate peg. Outstanding credit is scheduled to fall below 200 percent of quota at end-year. The external position and capacity to pay are sufficiently strong to allow for a cessation of post-program monitoring.

Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Download or read book Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-04 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, economic recovery and growth of Macedonia are discussed. In the financial sector, nonperforming loans (NPLs) rose, and bank profitability declined as a result of the crisis. Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors were encouraged by the overall healthy condition of the financial system. The need to accelerate structural reforms and strengthen public infrastructure to raise productivity and help reduce high unemployment is encouraged. Macedonia met the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) qualification requirements.

Download or read book IMF Survey written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Euro and Economic Stability written by Ewald Nowotny and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Euro and Economic Stability assesses the euro area's merits as a shelter and the merits of euro assets as a safe haven and reviews the case for rapid euro adoption from a post-crisis view. Policymakers and economists provide relevant lessons from euro area divergences for future euro area members and, more generally, from the financial crisis, while banking representatives discuss post-crisis business models of banks in the area. Last but not least, a theoretical introductory chapter fills the gap between mainstream macroeconomic modelling and real-world decision-making. The prime audience for this invaluable book will be economists and other experts in the fields of economic policy and European integration from central, commercial and investment banks, governments, international organizations, universities and research institutes. The book is also aimed at readers with a particular interest in the contributions' special regional focus: Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.

Download or read book Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-26 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses key findings of Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Growth continues to strengthen, although the recovery is not yet broad-based. Private non-debt creating capital flows have slowed, and could leave the reserve path increasingly driven by an accumulation of external public debt. Central government debt has increased by about 15 percentage points since the beginning of the global financial crisis, in the context of growing broader public sector operations. The strong recovery in first half of 2013, high bank liquidity, and the decline in reserves suggest an end to the easing cycle would be in order.

Download or read book Staff Studies for The World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book International Macroeconomics written by Amalia Morales Zumaquero and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2006 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The international macroeconomics area has experienced substantial growth over the past decade. The goal of this volume is to present the most important developments in the international macroeconomics field in recent years. The literature in this area has evolved mainly in four directions that constitute the four parts of this book. In particular, Part I focuses on the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle, Part II presents papers that try to explain the behaviour of nominal and real exchange rates, Part III covers the financial crises, currency crises and contagion recent literature and, finally, the behaviour of exchange rates, inflation and output convergence in Central and Eastern European transition economies are considered in Part IV.

Download or read book Small States and the European Union written by Lino Briguglio and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-06-10 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economies of European Union Small Member and Candidate States deals with the small states and candidate states of the EU, with a focus on their economic structure and performance, and the impact of EU membership (past, actual and potential) on the economy. The small states to be covered are those with a population of 3 million or less, namely: Cyprus, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia. This title adds to the literature on the EU, on regional integration generally and on small states. It delves into the special constraints of small economic size, and examines why and how the small states of Europe manage to compete, albeit not without difficulty, with the larger states in the block, where free trade prevails. The book answers the following research questions: What are the special economic development constraints faced by the small states of the EU? What policy options have been used by, or are available to, these small states to address these constraints? How can the economic resilience and competitiveness of these states be enhanced? Has EU membership been mostly advantageous for these small states? What are the economic prospects for these states as EU member states? The book is aimed primarily for students of EU affairs and of regional integration in general. It will also be useful for students of subjects relating to small states. It may also appeal to policy makers of small states, and to officials of international and regional organisations that have a constituency that includes small states.

Download or read book Banking Reforms in South East Europe written by Zeljko Šević and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002-10-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: '. . .Sevic offers an accessible and closely argued account of financial sector reform processes in Southeast Europe. Sevic's book is the result of an extensive research project on banking sector reform in the Southeast European transitional economies undertaken since late 1998. . . an extensive look at this timely volume will pay handsome dividends and could help devise successful business plans.' - Jens Bastian, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 'The book will be a very agreeable reading to experts on the region. Its comprehensive analysis emphasises past and current conflicts, the recourse to currency board arrangements, and the persisting asymmetries with reference to the functioning of the banking system in Central Europe. . . Banking Reforms in South-East Europe is a book that college students in banking and financial markets, and banking analysts should read.' - Bruno S. Sergi, South-East Europe Review Banking Reforms in South-East Europe gives a critical and detailed overview of banking system restructuring in the transitional countries of South-Eastern Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Yugoslavia - and offers suggestions for future reforms.