Download or read book Impact of Market Shocks on the Wheat Industry written by Raymond Joseph Thomas and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supply chain responsiveness is a topic that has been discussed by researchers and practitioners in business and economics. Many agribusiness firms attempt to understand responsiveness in a way that might help to respond to demand along the supply chain while experiencing uncertainty in consumer preferences and growing conditions. This study uses two classes of wheat to examine how the supply chain responded to a 'shock' in 2008. As prices changed, the use of grains in the U.S. and international markets changed as well. Firms that can respond to changes in the demand for their products are able to capitalize on market opportunities. The purpose of this research is to examine how supply chain responsiveness in the wheat industry is affected by a market shock. This study uses cycle-time as a proxy for supply chain responsiveness. A difference-in-difference regression analysis was used to estimate the before and after-effects of the 2008 wheat price increase, which is commonly associated with ethanol produced from corn and the time it took to respond to the new demand. The results indicated that a significant difference in planted acres and off-farm stocks had a negative relationship with responsiveness, while exports have and positive relationship. The time effect of Soft Red Winter Wheat, as the treatment group, did not display any significance. This would suggest that responsiveness after 2008 was not directly caused by the shock.
Download or read book The impact of price insulation on world wheat markets during Covid 19 and the Ukraine crisis written by Martin, Will and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.
Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Download or read book The Effect of Price Changes Upon Production and Consumption of Wheat written by Holbrook Working and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Economic Analysis of the Dynamics of the United States Wheat Sector written by William Y. Mo and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Intended and Unintended Effects of U S Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies written by Joshua S. Graff Zivin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.
Download or read book Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes written by United States Department of Agriculture and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-12-09 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, wheat futures prices spiked and then crashed along with prices for other agri-cultural and nonagricultural commodities. Market observers offered several theories to explain this common movement, or comovement, in prices, and have proposed policies to address the perceived problem of excessive price volatility. The design of an appropriate policy response would benefit from a better understanding of the cause of the observed price movements. This study uses an econometric model to decompose observed wheat prices into a set of economic factors and measure the relative contribution of each factor to observed price changes. Findings show that market-specific shocks related to supply and demand for wheat were the dominant cause of price spikes in the three U.S. wheat futures markets. Fluctuations in the global macroeconomy associated with broadbased demand shocks were relatively less significant for wheat than for other commodities like crude oil and corn. Finally, little evidence suggests commodity index trading contributed to recent price spikes.
Download or read book The Stabilization of the Price of Wheat During the War and Its Effect Upon the Returns to the Producer written by Frank Macy Surface and published by . This book was released on 1925 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The U S Wheat Economy in an International Setting written by Paul Gallagher and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This bulletin presents an annual econometric model of the U.S. wheat economy. The research is part of a series on models for the major U.S. field crops; the goal is to provide forecasting and policy analysis tools of ultimate use for policy purposes. Prices for sorghum, a major competitor in the domestic wheat-feed industry, affect wheat supplies, domestic demand, and foreign demand. Rising incomes in less developed countries encourage purchases of U.S. wheat, but income growth in Japan and Western Europe reduces purchases. U.S. Government policy options for exportable wheat-food aid, exports to centrally planned countries, or Government stock ownership-have significantly different influences on wheat prices.
Download or read book The Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy on the European Community Wheat washing Industry and Grain Trade written by Dale J. Leuck and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Effects of COVID 19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea s food economy A multi market simulation analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Download or read book Distributional consequences of wheat policy in Sudan A simulation model analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-15 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.
Download or read book Evaluating cereal market dis integration in Sudan written by Abay, Kibrom A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-01-27 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.
Download or read book Understanding the Role of Supply and Demand Factors in the Global Wheat Market written by Daniele Valenti and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a Bayesian structural Vector Autoregressive model of the global wheat market to examine the relative importance of supply and demand shocks, which are interpreted as the fundamental driving forces of wheat price. To our knowledge, this is the first SVAR analysis that jointly considers (i) a Bayesian non-recursive specification, (ii) production and inventories as endogenous variables (iii) and an inventory-based detection strategy. Our main results indicate that: (i) the posterior median estimates for the price elasticity of supply and demand are mostly similar in their order of magnitude but opposite in signs (0.19 for supply and -0.20 for demand); (ii) the price and the inventories respond to global wheat market shocks differently, depending on the type of structural shock. We also show that the results obtained from Cholesy-type identified annual SVAR models for wheat market are potentially misleading and difficult to reconcile with the economic theory of competitive storage. Finally, we illustrate how unpredictable shifts in supply and demand contributed to the dynamic of wheat price between 2000 and 2022.
Download or read book The Economics of World Wheat Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book GlobalSoilMap written by Dominique Arrouays and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-01-27 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: GlobalSoilMap: Basis of the global spatial soil information system contains contributions that were presented at the 1st GlobalSoilMap conference, held 7-9 October 2013 in Orléans, France. These contributions demonstrate the latest developments in the GlobalSoilMap project and digital soil mapping technology for which the ultimate aim is to produce a high resolution digital spatial soil information system of selected soil properties and their uncertainties for the entire world. GlobalSoilMap: Basis of the global spatial soil information system aims to stimulate capacity building and new incentives to develop full GlobalSoilMap products in all parts of the world.
