Download or read book House price booms and the current account written by Klaus Adam and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple open economy asset pricing model can account for the house price and current account dynamics in the G7 over the years 2001-2008. The model features rational households, but assumes that households entertain subjective beliefs about price behavior and update these using Bayes' rule. The resulting beliefs dynamics considerably propagate economic shocks and crucially contribute to replicating the empirical evidence. Belief dynamics can temporarily delink house prices from fundamentals, so that low interest rates can fuel a house price boom. House price booms, however, are not necessarily synchronized across countries and the model is consistent with the heterogeneous response of house prices across the G7 following the reduction in real interest rates at the beginning of the millennium. The response to interest rates depends sensitively on agents' beliefs at the time of the interest rate reduction, which in turn are a function of the country specific history prior to the year 2000. According to the model, the US house price boom could have been largely avoided, if real interest rates had decreased by less after the year 2000.
Download or read book House Price Booms and the Current Account written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book House Price Booms Current Account Deficits and Low Interest Rates written by Andrea Ferrero and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the most striking features of the period before the Great Recession is the strong positive correlation between house price appreciation and current account deficits, not only in the United States but also in other countries that have subsequently experienced the highest degree of financial turmoil. A progressive relaxation of credit standards can rationalize this empirical observation. Lower collateral requirements facilitate access to external funding and drive up house prices. The current account turns negative because households borrow from the rest of the world. At the same time, however, the world real interest rate counterfactually increases. The two key ingredients that reconcile a demand-based explanation of house price booms and current account deficits with the evidence on real interest rates are nominal interest rates lower than the predictions of a standard monetary policy rule in leveraged economies and foreign exchange rate pegs in saving countries."--Abstract.
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Download or read book Housing Finance and Real Estate Booms written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-03 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global crisis highlighted the risks stemming from real estate booms. This has generated a growing literature trying to better understand the sources and the risks associated with housing and credit booms. This paper complements and supplements the previous work by (i) exploiting more disaggregated data on credit allowing us to dissociate between firm-credit and household (and in some cases mortgage) credit, and (ii) by taking into account the characteristics of the mortgage market, including institutional as well as other factors that vary across countries. This detailed cross-country analysis offers new valuable insights.
Download or read book Price Expectations and the U S Housing Boom written by Pascal Towbin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-30 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.
Download or read book Financial Regulation and the Current Account written by Mr.Sergi Lanau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between financial regulation and the current account in an intertemporal model of the current account where financial regulation affects the current account through liquidity constraints. Greater liquidity constraints decrease the size and persistence of the current account response to a net output shock. The theory is tested with an interacted panel VAR model where the coefficients are allowed to vary with the degree of financial regulation. The current account reaction to an output shock is 60% larger and substantially more persistent in a country with low financial regulation than in one with high financial regulation.
Download or read book Housing and the Financial Crisis written by Edward L. Glaeser and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and House Prices written by Alan G. Ahearne and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Housing Bubbles written by Sergi Basco and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-01 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This book provides an accessible, yet formal framework to understand how housing bubbles arise, their international dimension, their consequences, and ways to prevent them.” Òscar Jordà, University of California, Davis, USA “Basco’s analysis blends, in a very rigorous but enjoyable manner , state-of-the-art theory and historical examples, adding also a very timely and valuable set of policy orientations.” Óscar Arce, Director General, Banco de España, Madrid, Spain Booms and busts of house prices are a recurrent feature throughout history. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the origins and economic consequences of these housing bubbles. The book starts with a formal definition of asset price bubbles and a summary of the most famous episodes, before describing how economists have thought about asset price bubbles; specifically behavioral vs. rational interpretations. These theories are applied to the special case of housing and the same framework is used to explain the implications of financial globalization for capital flows and housing bubbles. After analyzing its origins, the economic consequences of housing bubbles for both households and firms are derived and documented. The final sections are devoted to discussing the effects of financial crises and explain how financial regulation could mitigate the emergence of future housing bubbles. Case studies of the recent housing bubbles in the United States and Spain are also featured in the book. This book will be of value to advanced undergraduate macroeconomic courses, as well as researchers in international economics and macroeconomics and policy makers.
Download or read book House Prices and the Macroeconomy written by Charles Goodhart and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Download or read book Price Expectations and the U S Housing Boom written by Pascal Towbin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-30 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.
Download or read book Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential instrument designed specifically to dampen credit market cycles would also be useful. But invariant and rigid policy responses raise the risk of policy errors that could lower, not raise, macroeconomic stability. Hence, discretion would be required.
Download or read book Global Liquidity House Prices and the Macroeconomy written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-29 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.
Download or read book Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing written by Josh Ryan-Collins and published by Zed Books Ltd.. This book was released on 2017-02-28 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why are house prices in many advanced economies rising faster than incomes? Why isn’t land and location taught or seen as important in modern economics? What is the relationship between the financial system and land? In this accessible but provocative guide to the economics of land and housing, the authors reveal how many of the key challenges facing modern economies - including housing crises, financial instability and growing inequalities - are intimately tied to the land economy. Looking at the ways in which discussions of land have been routinely excluded from both housing policy and economic theory, the authors show that in order to tackle these increasingly pressing issues a major rethink by both politicians and economists is required.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Capital Inflows and the Housing Boom written by Filipa Sá and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A range of hypotheses have been put forward to explain the boom in house prices that occurred in the United States from the mid-1990s to 2007. This paper considers the relative importance of two of these hypotheses. First, global imbalances increased liquidity in the US financial system, driving down long-term real interest rates. Second, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low in the first half of the 2000s. Both factors reduced the cost of borrowing and may have encouraged the boom in house prices. This paper develops an empirical framework to separate the relative contributions of these two factors to the US housing market. The results suggest that capital inflows to the United States played a bigger role in generating the increase in house prices than monetary policy loosening. Using VAR methods, we find that compared to monetary policy, the effect of a capital inflows shock on US house prices and residential investment is about twice as large and substantially more persistent. Results from variance decompositions suggest that, at a forecast horizon of 20 quarters, capital flows shocks explain 15% of the variation in real house prices, while monetary policy shocks explain only 5%. In a simple counterfactual exercise, we find that if the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP had remained constant since the end of 1998, real house prices by the end of 2007 would have been 13% lower. Similar exercises with constant policy rates and the path of policy rates implied by the Taylor rule deliver smaller effects.
Download or read book Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective written by Eugene N. White and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-17 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The central role of the housing market in the recent recession raised a series of questions about similar episodes throughout economic history. Were the underlying causes of housing and mortgage crises the same in earlier episodes? Has the onset and spread of crises changed over time? How have previous policy interventions either damaged or improved long-run market performance and stability? This volume begins to answer these questions, providing a much-needed context for understanding recent events by examining how historical housing and mortgage markets worked—and how they sometimes failed. Renowned economic historians Eugene N. White, Kenneth Snowden, and Price Fishback survey the foundational research on housing crises, comparing that of the 1930s to that of the early 2000s in order to authoritatively identify what contributed to each crisis. Later chapters explore notable historical experiences with mortgage securitization and the role that federal policy played in the surge in home ownership between 1940 and 1960. By providing a broad historical overview of housing and mortgage markets, the volume offers valuable new insights to inform future policy debates.
