Download or read book Guidebook for Supporting Decision Making Under Uncertainties written by Ettore Piccirillo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides much-needed guidance in making sound business decisions for the business leader or decision maker, especially investment appraisal practitioners such as strategic planners, business analysts, financial partners, and supply chain experts. By OC supply chainOCO, the authors mean the network of retailers, distributors, transporters, storage facilities and suppliers that participate in the sale, delivery and production of a particular product. The book begins with an introduction to the concept of decision making under uncertainty and the forces driving the business. A gap in the current knowledge is then discovered as it arises from an analysis of the profitability indicators that are currently being used. With hands-on experience in decision making within the supply chain environment, and coupled with leading-edge mathematical and business formulations, the authors propose how to enrich quantitative and qualitative decision-making measures. This further leads to a decision-making framework and process, supported by a ready-to-use tool (PADOVA). Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Decision Under Uncertainty (163 KB). Contents: Decision Under Uncertainty; Critical Review of Accounting Performance Measures; Critical Review of Strategic Criteria; A Way Forward: Quantitative Decision Making Measures; A Way Forward: Qualitative Decision Making Measures; The Framework. Readership: Investment appraisal practitioners such as strategic planners, business analysts, financial partners, and supply chain experts alike; graduate-level students in business administration or operations management."

Download or read book Guidebook For Supporting Decision Making Under Uncertainties Today s Managers Tomorrow s Business written by Ettore Piccirillo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008-02-19 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides much-needed guidance in making sound business decisions for the business leader or decision maker, especially investment appraisal practitioners such as strategic planners, business analysts, financial partners, and supply chain experts. By “supply chain”, the authors mean the network of retailers, distributors, transporters, storage facilities and suppliers that participate in the sale, delivery and production of a particular product.The book begins with an introduction to the concept of decision making under uncertainty and the forces driving the business. A gap in the current knowledge is then discovered as it arises from an analysis of the profitability indicators that are currently being used.With hands-on experience in decision making within the supply chain environment, and coupled with leading-edge mathematical and business formulations, the authors propose how to enrich quantitative and qualitative decision-making measures. This further leads to a decision-making framework and process, supported by a ready-to-use tool (PADOVA).

Download or read book Uncertainty Deconstructed written by Bruce Garvey and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-26 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant

Download or read book Making Robust Decisions written by David G. Ullman and published by Trafford on Demand Pub. This book was released on 2006 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do you approach difficult decisions? Decision making is an integral part of business and technology, as well as almost every other facet of life. Now there is a uniquely practical book that can help you tackle your next decision with confidence. In Making Robust Decisions: Decision Management for Business, Service, and Technical Teams, you will learn: why decision making can be so difficult; how to address the challenges that uncertain, conflicting, incomplete, or evolving information present; and how to achieve robust decisions despite the varied personalities and perspectives on your team. Combining more than ten years of study of decision support, cognitive psychology, product development, and business management with modern Artificial Intelligence concepts, Making Robust Decisions gives you the tools you need to produce optimal decisions—those that make good use of available information, achieve buy-in from all parties, and yield the best possible results. Packed with practical examples and case studies, Making Robust Decisions strikes a middle ground between self-help books that, while interesting in theory, may not help with real-world problems and highly technical analysis texts. It provides some methods you can implement right away and others that you and your organization can grow into. It is readable, useful, and readily applicable to a wide variety of decision-making problems. The methods introduced in Making Robust Decisions can help with such varied issues as selecting a concept, managing a portfolio, choosing a vendor, evaluating a proposal, selecting from architecture options, choosing a design, and determining whether to make or buy an item. They support military selection of the best course of action (COA), Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), and homeland security strategies. Making Robust Decisions includes chapters on making estimates, working with decision teams, framing problems, the influence of belief, and using AccordÔ decision-making software to support robust decisions. It includes decision-making templates and demonstrates how the methods described support Design for Six Sigma practitioners and provide help in un-sticking the OODA Loop. If you’re in the business of making difficult decisions while managing uncertainty, risk, and team conflict, then discover the new, effective techniques presented in Making Robust Decisions.

Download or read book Handbook of Decision Making written by Paul C. Nutt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-09-07 with total page 723 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: HANDBOOK OF DECISION MAKING This handbook offers a state-of-the-art overview of research and theories on decision making in organizations at the strategic level of analysis. Chapters are authored by leading international scholars, with some illustrative case vignettes from practitioners. Each contributor was selected for his/her special knowledge of the field. The Handbook addresses key questions confronting the decision making research of the past and the present, offers critiques, and suggests future research directions. Topics covered emphasize the classic decision theory perspectives while also incorporating recent insights from the fields of strategic choice, risk & uncertainty, scenario planning and complexity theory, with a broad social science perspective on the disciplinary roots of decision theory in economics, politics, and social theory. This is a landmark reference volume for the field, offering scholars and practitioners: Comprehensive, but accessible, coverage of classic and recent developments Chapters by established international experts Case analyses illustrating practical consequences of theories Guide to new research directions and theory

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book The Art of Decisions written by Chris Blake and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions! How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don't past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making-and helps you optimize every decision you make. Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that's nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck. Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you'll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You'll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming. You're human. You'll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there. * Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold'em What to do about the risks and randomness you can't eliminate * Follow your instinct or follow the rules? When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it * Know when it's time to decide How to know when you know enough * Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments Hire a guide or make a map?

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.

Download or read book Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Bruce F. Baird and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1991-01-16 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.

Download or read book Handbook on Decision Making written by Jie Lu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-04-19 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

Download or read book Innovative Decision Making Techniques written by Terry Bresnick and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a blend of quantitative and qualitative approaches to decision making, while also bridging the gap between the theory of how to make good decisions versus how people actually make decisions. The authors present the tools and techniques of decision analysis to learn how to become a FOCCUSSED decision maker: Identify and properly Frame the decision or problem at hand Specify the goals, Objectives, and values that you are trying to achieve Develop creative, meaningful Choices from among which you can choose Evaluate the Consequences of selecting each alternative using your goals, objectives, and values Think about the key Uncertainties that could impact the decision Understand the Swaps and trade-offs that you are willing to make Develop an approach for implementing your Solution Elicit the data you’ll need from a variety of sources and Disseminate and communicate your decisions to others. The authors define a decision as the choice among alternatives, based on how we value and trade-off their pros and cons, made in the face of uncertainty about what will actually happen. The decision-making process is presented as having three pillars to support the decision maker: Preferences–what we prefer, what meets our goals and objectives, and the recognition that preferences are personal to the one making the decision; Alternatives–the choices, options, or courses of action that we have, and over which we have some degree of control; and Information–what we know about the situation, what we don’t know, how we connect choices to outcomes, and how we deal with uncertainty. Key components of good decision-making include how to define your goals and objectives, how to incorporate uncertainties that we all face, and how to develop better alternatives, all of which are discussed. Sophisticated techniques are presented in a way that is accessible to the average decision maker. Probability theory is utilized to improve decisions, and uncertainties are captured in decision trees. Risk avoidance, risk transfer, and risk mitigation are also discussed. Readers will gain a clear understanding of how to articulate the goals and objectives that should be the focal point of any decision.

Download or read book Super Deciders written by Stefan Brusoni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2024-03-19 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dramatically improve the decisions you make every day using insights from the latest neuroscience We make hundreds of decisions daily, from small ones – such as what to wear today and how to drive to work – to big ones – such as the company strategy and whether to launch a restructuring program that may impact thousands of people. In business, studies suggest that company executives spend 40% of their time making decisions and that the effectiveness of their decisions largely drives the results of the companies that they lead. In Super Deciders: The Science and Practice of Decision-Making in Dynamic and Uncertain Times, a team of renown researchers and business advisors deliver an application of the latest advances in neuroscience to effectively making the most difficult decisions, those we make in dynamic environments, in situations of uncertainty when we need to predict outcomes, we’re missing relevant information, time is scarce, and the environment is constantly changing. The book is written in three parts. In the first part, the book offers a practical framework for making effective decisions under uncertainty. In the second part, the book discusses approaches to effectively implement those decisions, thus managing change at every level, from the individual to the organizational. Finally, the book develops suggestions on how leaders can diagnose and improve – in themselves and in the people they lead – the cognitive abilities relevant to decision-making. You’ll also find: An enlightening business narrative detailing the journey of a fictional leader of an international travel operator named Inuk. Six cases that put you into real-life situations of making difficult decisions and that help you assess your decision-making effectiveness. An accessible and fun introduction to the neuroscience of decision-making. Ideal for managers, executives, directors, and other business leaders, Super Deciders is a can’t-miss decision-making playbook that you’ve been waiting for.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Steven W Popper and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.; Offers a comprehensive examination of the approaches and tools for designing plans under deep uncertainty and their application Identifies barriers and enablers for the use of the various approaches and tools in practice Includes realistic examples and practical guidelines to help readers better understand the concepts This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.

Download or read book Decisions Without Mistakes written by Kim D. Ward and published by Writers Advantage Press. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I've been in management, leadership, supervision, and directorship whatever everyone is calling it this week, all of my adult life. As I'm sure, so have many of you. Whether we were appointed, anointed or the last person standing makes no difference, the responsibilities of the job are the same: we're expected to be successful with our team. Our life, as soon as we receive the responsibility, can become a barrage of meetings, telephone calls, e-mails, paperwork, reports, customer complaints, issues, concerns, and downright problems. Isn't management/ leadership supposed to be a promotion and honor? Wow! This book is a very small distillation of some common sense principles, attitudes, strategies, and techniques that thousands have worked with me to develop during my career as a trainer and consultant. I've witnessed, researched, and experienced the ever-changing work environment, and the outcome is a management/leadership process that is proven to work in today's interesting and challenging business setting. This book is a part of that process. The content in these pages can help any manager/ leader develop better business relationships, build more powerful teams, achieve higher goals, reduce stress in themselves and others, but most importantly make Decisions Without Mistakes!

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Practical Decision Maker written by Thomas R. Harvey and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2022 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Practical Decision Maker identifies six steps essential to strong decision-making. Mind-set, problem definition, solution criteria, possible solutions, solution choice, and implementation are depicted along with concrete examples of each. 53 structuring devices are included to help readers move through each step of the decision-making process.