Download or read book Handbook of Survey Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. - Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies on the consequence of the survey results is presented. The significance of the surveys applied equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-12-10 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-05-21 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the effects of digitalisation on productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

Download or read book Germany s Economic Performance written by J. Hölscher and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-22 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive understanding of Germany's economic performance at the turn of the twenty-first century. The period under observation and analysis stretches from Germany's unification in 1990 over the death of the German Mark to first experiences with the Euro, with particular attention given to East Germany.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2017 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2017-06-30 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.

Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2021 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.

Download or read book Germany written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes a very large database of corporate financial statements and ownership information published by Bureau van Dyck, to compare the profitability of German-owned firms located in Germany with that of German-owned firms located outside of Germany. The study relies on data for all nonfinancial, nonmining firms in the Orbis universe that are incorporated in a European country, have average annual sales of at least USD 25 million during 2006–2014, and have financial information available for each year during that period. Orbis coverage is generally considered to be good for continental European countries. For Germany, the coverage in our raw data is between 45 and 55 percent of total sales, using data published in Deutsche Bundesbank (2016) as a reference. The pattern in nonmanufacturing nonretail/wholesale sectors broadly follows that of manufacturing. The only difference is that German-owned firms that are not part of a multinational group are less profitable than their multinational peers, at least in the balanced sample.

Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2020 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2020-06-10 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

Download or read book Germany written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-17 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The German economy has demonstrated resilience following the shut-off of Russian gas supply last year, with highly adverse scenarios of widespread energy scarcity being avoided. This success reflects impressive efforts to conserve energy and secure future energy supplies, as well as the lack of severe winter weather. Nonetheless, adverse effects from the energy shock and tighter financial conditions have been sufficient to tilt the economy into recession in recent months. Inflation also spiked as the energy price shock added to existing pandemic-related supply bottlenecks, though inflation is now falling as these effects start to ease. Germany’s financial system remains well capitalized and liquid overall, but banking turmoil in other advanced economies earlier this year has nonetheless heightened the focus on potential financial stability risks associated with rising interest rates.

Download or read book Opting Out of the Great Inflation written by Andreas Beyer and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policymakers at the time. -- Inflation ; Price Stability ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Targeting ; Policy Rules.

Download or read book Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Norman Loayza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.

Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Poland 2012 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2012-04-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: OECD's 2012 Economic Survey of Poland examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects. It also includes special chapters covering climate change and health care.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects 2010 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-02-12 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.