Download or read book Government Expenditure Crowding In Effect and Lack of Economic Diversification in Oil Producing Countries written by Noha H. A. Razek and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, I examine the impact of oil price shocks, government expenditure, and Chinese investments in the energy sector on Alberta's economy. The aim is to understand how government expenditures transmit oil-price changes to the economy, thereby exacerbating economic cycles in Alberta, an oil-exporting region, and to provide policy recommendations that could help Alberta benefit from future oil price drops. To my knowledge, I am the first to examine the effects of oil price changes, government expenditures, and investments from China on Alberta's economy, accounting for inter-industry and household demand effects. I find evidence that Alberta's manufacturing sector depends heavily on the oil and gas sector; government expenditure has a crowding-in effect that exacerbates economic cycles; Chinese investments in Alberta's energy sector contribute positively to Alberta's economy; and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is an important factor. I use actual WTI values and oil future values to simulate and forecast key explanatory variables. The results are robust to different variations of the model, and when creating in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. The results of my analyses yield three policy recommendations for Alberta: (a) implement a long-term counter-cyclical fiscal policy, preferably during a boom period; (b) diversify both the oil and gas sector (to increase petroleum product exports) and the manufacturing sector (to increase non-oil related production); and (c) open the economy to additional foreign investment.
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries written by Amir Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Download or read book Exogenous Oil Shocks Fiscal Policy and Sector Reallocations in Oil Producing Countries written by Alessandro Cologni and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous literature has suggested that different mechanisms of transmission of exogenous oil shocks are responsible for the negative effects on the economic performances of oil exporting countries. This paper aims at providing further evidence on the role of sectoral reallocation between private and public sectors in explaining the impact of shocks to oil revenues on the economic growth rates of major oil producing countries (namely the GCC - Gulf Corporation Council - countries). The effects of oil shocks and expansionary fiscal policy on the business cycle of oil producing countries are examined. The possibility to distinguish between various components of public sector spending policy (that is, purchases of consumption goods, investments in productive activities and compensation for public employees) is, in particular, allowed for. A real business cycle (RBC) model is calibrated to fit the data on an “average” oil producing country. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model suggest that the possibility that crowding-out effects of public over private investments can explain a large fraction of the negative effects of shocks to oil revenues on the private sector of the economy. In addition, since the growth in size of the public sector is unable to compensate for the reduction in size of the private sector, an increase in oil revenues has the effect to decrease total output. An expansionary fiscal policy is argued to have significant positive effects on private investments, employment and overall production. On the contrary, a shock to government consumption expenditure impacts negatively the level of public investment. As employment in the public sector increases significantly, public output responds positively to a shock in government consumption expenditure. Finally, an instantaneous negative effect on total investments and on the stock of capital in the economy is predicted. However, driven by the increase of the number of employees in the economy, total output expands.
Download or read book Economic Diversification in the GCC written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Download or read book The World Bank Research Observer written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Hamid R Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Download or read book Azerbaijan Moving Toward More Diversified Resilient and Inclusive Development written by Aimee Hampel-Milagrosa and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-08-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Azerbaijan has set the course for the economy to reduce its dependence on oil by promoting new drivers of growth. By 2025, under the government’s Strategic Roads Maps, a more diversified economy should take shape led by three sectors: agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. Bold reforms need to strengthen areas of the economy that could otherwise impede this transition, and policy makers must resolutely stay on the reform path. The core message of this publication is diversification toward non-oil sources of growth alongside efforts to reduce macroeconomic risks and the high cost of finance, make the education system responsive to the needs of the labor market, close infrastructure gaps, and help economically significant state-owned enterprises become more efficient.
Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Download or read book Growing the Non Oil Economy written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2015-07-01 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report investigates Timor-Leste's potential to develop a vibrant, stable, and diversified economy that is not dependent on oil revenues. Implementing challenging reforms across the private sector, banking and finance, agriculture, infrastructure, and judiciary requires sound policies and effective legislation. The Government of Timor-Leste shows promising reform appetite and willingness to engage the private sector in developing alternate investment options to attract business to the country. Yet, significant challenges remain to ensure that rebuilding efforts and institutions are managed effectively to benefit all Timor-Leste's citizens. This report was produced by the Pacific Private Sector Development Initiative, a regional technical assistance facility cofinanced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Government of Australia, and the New Zealand Government.
Download or read book The Growth Report written by Commission on Growth and Development and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-07-23 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.
Download or read book Oil Windfalls written by Alan H. Gelb and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
Download or read book Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World written by Grzegorz Peszko and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-07-24 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the first stocktaking of what the decarbonization of the world economy means for fossil fuel†“dependent countries. These countries are the most exposed to the impacts of global climate policies and, at the same time, are often unprepared to manage them. They depend on the export of oil, gas, or coal; the use of carbon-intensive infrastructure (for example, refineries, petrochemicals, and coal power plants); or both. Fossil fuel†“dependent countries face financial, fiscal, and macro-structural risks from the transition of the global economy away from carbon-intensive fuels and the value chains based on them. This book focuses on managing these transition risks and harnessing related opportunities. Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World identifies multiple strategies that fossil fuel†“dependent countries can pursue to navigate the turbulent waters of a low-carbon transition. The policy and investment choices to be made in the next decade will determine these countries’ degree of exposure and overall resilience. Abandoning their comfort zones and developing completely new skills and capabilities in a time frame consistent with the Paris Agreement on climate change is a daunting challenge and requires long-term revenue visibility and consistent policy leadership. This book proposes a constructive framework for climate strategies for fossil fuel†“dependent countries based on new approaches to diversification and international climate cooperation. Climate policy leaders share responsibility for creating room for all countries to contribute to the goals of the Paris Agreement, taking into account the specific vulnerabilities and opportunities each country faces.
Download or read book World Development Report 2009 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Download or read book The Saudi Arabian Economy written by Mohamed A. Ramady and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-05 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Saudi Arabian economy has changed almost beyond recognition since the oil boom days of the 1980s, and the Kingdom itself has changed too economically, socially, and demographically. In the second edition of The Saudi Arabian Economy, Mohamed Ramady uses several overlapping themes to establish and develop a framework for studying the fundamental challenges to the Saudi economy. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of short-term planning and long-term diversification intended to shield the economy from potentially de-stabilizing oil price fluctuations and the pace and diversity of domestic reforms. The author examines the core strengths and evolution of various financial institutions and the Saudi stock market in the face of globalization, before analyzing the private sector in detail. Topics discussed include: • The hydrocarbon and minerals sector, including the emergence of the competitive petrochemical sector • The impact of small and medium sized businesses and the evolving role of “family” businesses • The growing role of women in the Saudi economy • The role of privatization and FDI as engines of change and the position of public-private-partnerships • The establishment of a foundation for a knowledge-based economy Finally, the author offers an analysis of the key challenges facing the Saudi economy, paying particular attention to the potential costs and benefits of globalization, and membership in the WTO. Employment, education, economic and social stability, and Saudi Arabia’s place in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Saudi Arabia’s evolving strategic economic relations with China and other countries are offered as keys to the consensus building needed to ensure the Kingdom’s healthy economic future.
Download or read book Diversified Development written by Indermit S. Gill and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-02-26 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eurasian economies have to become efficient more productive, job-creating, and stable. But efficiency is not the same as diversification. Governments need to worry less about the composition of exports and production and more about asset portfolios natural resources, built capital, and economic institutions.
Download or read book Soaring of the Gulf Falcons written by Reda Cherif and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-24 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key priority for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is to create a dynamic non-oil tradable sector to support sustainable growth. Since export diversification takes a long time, it has to start now. We argue that the failure to diversify away from oil stems mainly from market failures rather than government failures. To tackle market failures, the government needs to change the incentive structure for workers and firms. Experiences of oil exporters that managed to diversify suggest that a focus on competing in international markets and an emphasis on technological upgrade and climbing the “quality ladder” are crucial.
Download or read book Building Back Better How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
