Download or read book Government Contingent Liabilities and the Measurement of Fiscal Impact written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional fiscal accounting methodologies do not appropriately account for governments’ noncash policies, such as their contingent liabilities. When these liabilities are called, budget costs can be large, as evidenced by the United States’ saving and loan crisis. In general, deficit measures may underestimate the macroeconomic impact of government policies, promoting the substitution of noncash for cash expenditure and increasing future financing requirements. The paper describes extended deficit measures to address the problem, but notes their limited practical value. Nonetheless, some alternative methods of valuing contingent liabilities are proposed to gauge fiscal impact and facilitate budgetary control.

Download or read book Government Contingent Liabilities and the Measurement of Fiscal Impact written by Christopher Towe and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional fiscal accounting methodologies do not appropriately account for governments` noncash policies, such as their contingent liabilities. When these liabilities are called, budget costs can be large, as evidenced by the United States` saving and loan crisis. In general, deficit measures may underestimate the macroeconomic impact of government policies, promoting the substitution of noncash for cash expenditure and increasing future financing requirements. The paper describes extended deficit measures to address the problem, but notes their limited practical value. Nonetheless, some alternative methods of valuing contingent liabilities are proposed to gauge fiscal impact and facilitate budgetary control.

Download or read book Government at Risk written by Hana Polackova Brixi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many governments have faced serious instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional public finance analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks. This book aims to provide motivation and practical guidance to governments seeking to improve theirmanagement of fiscal risks. The book addresses some of the difficult analytical and institutional challenges that face reformers tooling up to manage government fiscal risks. It discusses the inadequacies of conventional practices as well as recent advances in dealing with fiscal risk.

Download or read book Contingent Government Liabilities written by Hana Polackova and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: October 1998 Many governments have faced serious fiscal instabilities as a result of their growing contingent liabilities. But conventional fiscal analysis and institutions fall short in addressing contingent fiscal risks. What approaches in fiscal analysis and standards for public sector management would foster sound fiscal performance? And how can policymakers be made accountable for recognizing the long-term costs of both direct and contingent forms of government activity in their decisions? Governments are increasingly exposed to fiscal risks and uncertainties for three main reasons: * The increasing volume and volatility of international flows of private capital. * The state's transformation from financing services to guaranteeing that the private sector will achieve particular outcomes. * Moral hazards arising in markets because the government is perceived to have residual responsibility for market outcomes. Sources of fiscal risk may be direct or contingent (a liability only if a particular event occurs). Whether direct or contingent, they are either explicit (recognized as a government liability by law or by contract) or implicit (a moral obligation reflecting public expectations and pressure from interest groups). The recent Asian crisis revealed that major moral hazards exist in markets and that sizable hidden fiscal risks may arise from contingent forms of government support. Governments must understand and know how to handle contingent liabilities if they are to avoid the danger of sudden fiscal instability and realize their long-term policy objectives. They can reduce fiscal risks by incorporating contingent liabilities into their analytical, policy, and institutional public finance frameworks. Governments can address fiscal risk through three channels in particular, says Polackova: * By including contingent and implicit financial risks in their fiscal analysis and (to deter moral hazard in the market) by publicly acknowledging the limits of state responsibilities. * By reflecting the cost of contingent liabilities in policy choices, budgeting, financial planning, reporting, and auditing. * By developing institutional capacity to evaluate, regulate, control, and prevent financial risk in both the public and private sectors. Given the increasingly serious implications of contingent government liabilities for the fiscal outlook of countries, Polackova argues that it is time for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and others to: * Incorporate government contingent fiscal risks in their analysis of a country's fiscal sustainability, policies, and institutions. * Require countries to disclose information regarding their exposure to contingent fiscal risks. * Help countries embrace contingent liabilities in their analytical, policy, and institutional public finance frameworks. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to enhance the Bank's analytical and operational work in public finance. The author may be contacted at [email protected].

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment and Contingent Government Liabilities written by Hana Polackova Brixi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal vulnerability, but are omitted in traditional measures of the current deficit. In the Czech Republic this omission may mean that fiscal adjustment has been overstated by 3 to 4 percent of annual GDP, with future budgets having to pay for past guarantees. The stock of existing contingent liabilities in Macedonia could add 2 to 4 percent of GDP to that country's future deficits.

Download or read book Optimal Fiscal Policy and Government Provision of Contingent Liabilities written by Christopher M. Towe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-10-12 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The optimal provision of loan guarantees or deposit insurance is examined in the context of an overlapping generations model. It is demonstrated that even in the face of a market imperfection that precludes diversification of the private sector’s loan portfolio to eliminate risk, full government guarantee of private sector loans (or deposits) is suboptimal. The results of the paper suggest that although some degree of guarantee is appropriate, the design of such policies should be tempered to avoid an inefficient level of capital accumulation.

Download or read book Contingent Liabilities Issues and Practice written by Aliona Cebotari and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contingent liabilities have gained prominence in the analysis of public finance. Indeed, history is full of episodes in which the financial position of the public sector is substantially altered-or its true nature uncovered-as a result of government bailouts of financial or nonfinancial entities, in both the private and the public sector. The paper discusses theoretical and practical issues raised by contingent liabilities, including the rationale for taking them on, how to safeguard against the fiscal risks associated with them, how to account and budget for them, and how to disclose them. Country experiences are used to illustrate ways these issues are addressed in practice and challenges faced. The paper also points to good practices related to the mitigation, management and disclosure of risks from contingent liabilities.

Download or read book Toward Defining and Measuring the Fiscal Impact of Public Enterprises written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-09-26 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In many countries, the activities of public enterprises have an important fiscal impact. While the precise nature of this impact is often obscured, it is important that it be reflected in measures of overall fiscal activity. The paper is intended to raise and clarify some of the issues involved in this task.

Download or read book Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure and Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-05-31 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.

Download or read book Defining the Government s Debt and Deficit written by Mr.Timothy Irwin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-20 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the budget deficit and the public debt feature prominently in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement about how they should be measured. They can be defined for different sets of public institutions, including the nested sets corresponding to central government, general government, and the public sector, and, for any definition of government, there are many measures of the debt and deficit, including those generated by four kinds of accounts (cash, financial, full accrual, and comprehensive), which can be derived from four nested sets of assets and liabilities. Each debt and deficit measure says something about public finances, but none tells the whole story. Each is also vulnerable to manipulation, and is likely to be manipulated if it is subject to a binding fiscal rule or target. Narrow definitions of government encourage the shifting of spending to entities outside the defined perimeter of government. Narrow definitions of debt and deficit encourage operations involving off-balance-sheets assets and liabilities, while broad measures are susceptible to the mismeasurement of on-balance-sheet assets and liabilities. Reviewing the literature on these issues, the paper concludes that governments should publish several measures of the debt and deficit in a form that clearly reveals their interrelationships.

Download or read book Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 written by Mrs.Sage De Clerck and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-10 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2007–09 international financial crisis underscored the importance of reliable and timely statistics on the general government and public sectors. Government finance statistics are a basis for fiscal analysis and they play a vital role in developing and monitoring sound fiscal programs and in conducting surveillance of economic policies. The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 represents a major step forward in clarifying the standards for compiling and presenting fiscal statistics and strengthens the worldwide effort to improve public sector reporting and transparency.

Download or read book Anchor Me The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule-based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government’s non-binding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, using stochastic simulations, this paper makes the case for a well-designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long-term debt sustainability, and an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.

Download or read book Transparency in Government Operations written by Mr.J. D. Craig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-02-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transparency in government operations is widely regarded as an important precondition for macroeconomic fiscal sustainability, good governance, and overall fiscal rectitude. Notably, the Interim Committee, at its April and September 1996 meetings, stressed the need for greater fiscal transparency. Prompted by these concerns, this paper represents a first attempt to address many of the aspects of transparency in government operations. It provides an overview of major issues in fiscal transparency and examines the IMF's role in promoting transparency in government operations.

Download or read book Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.

Download or read book Public Private Partnerships Government Guarantees and Fiscal Risk written by Mr.Barry Anderson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04-28 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier momentum, PPPs began to be widely seen as a means of obtaining private sector capital and management expertise for infrastructure investment. After a modest start, a wave of PPPs is now beginning to sweep the world. This Special Issue paper provides an overview of some of the issues raised by PPPs, with a particular focus on their fiscal consequences. It also looks at government guarantees, which are used fairly widely to shield the private sector from risk and are a common feature of PPPs. And it examines the consequences of PPPs and guarantees for debt sustainability. The paper concludes with a list of measures that can maximize the benefits and minimize the fiscal risks associated with the use of PPPs. Various appendices augment the discussion by examining country experiences with PPPs, summarizing the statistical reporting framework used to discuss fiscal accounting and reporting, explaining accounting for risk transfer, examining how guarantees are modeled and estimated in Chile, and summarizing international accounting and reporting standards for contingent liabilities.

Download or read book Measurement of Fiscal Impact written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-06-16 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes methodological issues pertaining to measurement of fiscal impact. The fiscal deficit is, under any circumstances, a crude tool for assessing the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. This paper also analyzes various ways in which the conventional definition of the fiscal deficit is affected by high rates of inflation. It has shown that, as the rate of inflation rises, the picture emerging from the conventional measure may, under certain circumstances, become somewhat blurred since the conventional measure may magnify the size of the fiscal adjustment that a country need. In fact, the size of the debt service that compensates bondholders for the reduction in the real value of their assets arising from inflation should be made explicit so as to indicate that part of the deficit whose impact depends mainly on portfolio decisions regarding the public's demand for government bonds, and on the potential effects of these bonds on the monetary and liquidity conditions of the economy.

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.