Download or read book Global Impacts of the Doha Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Global Impacts of the Doha Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors illustrate some of the potential consequences of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, they estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty written by Kym Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper illustrates some of the potential consequences of the WTO's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, we estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Download or read book Poverty and the WTO written by Thomas W. Hertel and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-12-15 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poverty reduction is deemed to be a centerpiece of the Doha Development Agenda currently being negotiated under the auspices of the WTO. Yet there is considerable debate about the poverty impacts of such an agreement. Some are convinced it will increase poverty, while others are equally convinced that it will lead to poverty reduction. This book brings the best scientific methods to bear on this question, taking into account the specific characteristics embodied in the Doha Development Agenda.

Download or read book Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil written by Maurizio Bussolo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Download or read book The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon written by Christian Arnault Emini and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors aim to assess the possible impacts of the Doha Round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. During the recent period of economic recovery, Cameroon enjoyed a sharp decline in poverty, with the headcount index falling from 53.3 percent of inhabitants in 1996 to 40.2 percent in 2001, mostly due to economic growth rather than redistribution. Will the current trade negotiations under the Doha Round reinforce or curb this trend? They apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model that involves 10,992 households in order to address this question. The authors find the Doha Round to be poverty-reducing for Cameroon. For the whole country, the estimate of the net number of people who are lifted out of poverty is 22,000 following this scenario. Further investigations indicate that more ambitious world trade liberalization leads to greater poverty alleviation at the national level, while Cameroon's domestic trade liberalization has adverse poverty and inequality impacts-despite giving rise to higher aggregate welfare. Under the Doha scenario, the cuts in Cameroon's tariffs are very small (the average tariff rate moves from 11.79 percent in the base run to merely 11.66 percent) so that world trade liberalization effects on prices more than offset the adverse own liberalization effects in this scenario. If the rest of the world and Cameroon full trade liberalizations are combined, the adverse impacts of own liberalization outweigh the favorable outcomes of the world trade liberalization. The results suggest furthermore that the choice of tax replacement instrument can have an important bias in poverty impacts: poverty gets worse in the country case study when using an imperfect value-added tax instead of a neutral replacement tax to compensate lost tariff revenue, and gets even worse when using a consumption tax. Key reasons here are the supplementary distortions which are nil in case of a neutral tax and greatest in the case of a consumption tax. In addition, accompanying measures should be considered to avoid poverty increases in the framework of Economic Partnership Agreements currently in negotiation between African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries and the European Union, which propose a drastic dismantlement of ACP tariffs over the next few years.

Download or read book Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: - The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. - Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. - Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favorable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short-run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest households the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction. - Domestic liberalization effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined. - Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor." -- Cover verso.

Download or read book Global Trade and Poor Nations written by Marcelo Olarreaga and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Yale Center for the Study of Globalization and Sciences-Po, Paris publication This thoughtful volume assesses the likely impact of reformed trade policies on the poorest of the poor—those on the bottom economic rungs in developing nations. The focus on a spectrum of poor nations across different regions provides some helpful and hopeful guidelines regarding the likely impacts of a global trade reform, agreed upon under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, as well as the impact of such reforms on economic development. In order to facilitate lesson-drawing across different regions, each country study utilizes a similar methodology. They combine information on trade policy at the product level with income and consumption data at the household level, thus capturing effects both on the macro level and in individual households where development policies ideally should improve day-to-day life. This uniformity of research approach across the country studies allows for a deeper and more robust comparison of results.

Download or read book The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon written by Christian Arnault Emini and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors aim to assess the possible impacts of the Doha Round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. During the recent period of economic recovery, Cameroon enjoyed a sharp decline in poverty, with the headcount index falling from 53.3 percent of inhabitants in 1996 to 40.2 percent in 2001, mostly due to economic growth rather than redistribution. Will the current trade negotiations under the Doha Round reinforce or curb this trend? They apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model that involves 10,992 households in order to address this question. The authors find the Doha Round to be poverty-reducing for Cameroon. For the whole country, the estimate of the net number of people who are lifted out of poverty is 22,000 following this scenario. Further investigations indicate that more ambitious world trade liberalization leads to greater poverty alleviation at the national level, while Cameroon's domestic trade liberalization has adverse poverty and inequality impacts-despite giving rise to higher aggregate welfare. Under the Doha scenario, the cuts in Cameroon's tariffs are very small (the average tariff rate moves from 11.79 percent in the base run to merely 11.66 percent) so that world trade liberalization effects on prices more than offset the adverse own liberalization effects in this scenario. If the rest of the world and Cameroon full trade liberalizations are combined, the adverse impacts of own liberalization outweigh the favorable outcomes of the world trade liberalization. The results suggest furthermore that the choice of tax replacement instrument can have an important bias in poverty impacts: poverty gets worse in the country case study when using an imperfect value-added tax instead of a neutral replacement tax to compensate lost tariff revenue, and gets even worse when using a consumption tax. Key reasons here are the supplementary distortions which are nil in case of a neutral tax and greatest in the case of a consumption tax. In addition, accompanying measures should be considered to avoid poverty increases in the framework of Economic Partnership Agreements currently in negotiation between African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries and the European Union, which propose a drastic dismantlement of ACP tariffs over the next few years.

Download or read book Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil written by Maurizio Bussolo and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Download or read book Doha Scenarios Trade Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines written by Caesar Bucia Cororaton and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Since the early 1980s the Philippines has undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import prices and export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of intense debate. The authors use a detailed economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to run a series of policy experiments. They find that poverty increases slightly with the implementation of the prospective Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for the Philippines' agricultural exports. The authors find that the impacts of full liberalization-involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization-depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily nonagricultural, expand. In separate simulations, the authors discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariff rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed, and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty. "--World Bank web site.

Download or read book Poverty Impacts of a Wto Agreement Synthesis and Overview written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon written by Christian Arnault Emini and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to assess the possible impacts of the Doha round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. We apply a CGE microsimulation model which involves 10,992 households in order to address this question. The Doha Round is found to be poverty reducing for Cameroon. For the whole country, the estimate of net number of people who are lifted out of poverty is 22,000 following this scenario. Further investigations indicate that more ambitious world trade liberalization leads to greater poverty alleviation at the national level, while Cameroon's domestic trade liberalization has adverse poverty and inequality impacts. If the Rest of the World (ROW) and Cameroon trade liberalizations are combined, the adverse impacts of own liberalization outweigh the favorable outcomes of the ROW liberalization. The cuts in Cameroon's tariffs in the Doha scenarios are very small (the average tariff rate moves from 11.79 percent in the base run to merely 11.66 percent) so that ROW liberalization effects on world prices more than offset the adverse own liberalization effects in this scenario. Our results suggest furthermore that the choice of tax replacement instrument can have an important bias in poverty impacts: poverty gets worse in our country-case study when using an imperfect VAT instead of a neutral replacement tax to compensate lost tariff revenue, and gets even worse when using consumption tax. Key reasons here are the supplementary distortions which are nil in case of neutral tax and greatest in case of consumption tax. Finally, beyond the Doha scenarios which are the focus of this study, the poverty worsening impacts of own-liberalization depicted here, raise an alarm for Cameroon. In particular, they suggest that accompanying measures should be considered in order to avoid poverty increases in the framework of Economic Partnership Agreements currently in negotiation between ACP countries and the EU, which propose a drastic dismantlement of ACP tariffs over the next few years.

Download or read book Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia Pacific written by John Gilbert and published by Unescap Working Papers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document reviews the literature on the relationship between agricultural trade policy reform and poverty, and the results of recent detailed simulation studies applied to economies in the ESCAP region. It then uses the GTAP model to evaluate the possible impacts of the most recently proposed modality for agricultural trade reform under Doha on the economies of the ESCAP region. It compares the results to a benchmark of comprehensive agricultural trade reform and finds that the current proposal does not imply significant cuts to applied tariffs, and has very modest overall effects on welfare.

Download or read book Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil written by Maurizio Bussolo and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Download or read book Doha Scenarios Trade Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines written by Caesar B. Cororaton and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1980s the Philippines has undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import prices and export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of intense debate. The authors use a detailed economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to run a series of policy experiments. They find that poverty increases slightly with the implementation of the prospective Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for the Philippines' agricultural exports. The authors find that the impacts of full liberalization-involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization-depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily nonagricultural, expand. In separate simulations, the authors discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariff rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed, and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty.

Download or read book Global Monitoring Report 2014 2015 written by World Bank;International Monetary Fund and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-10-21 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015: Ending Poverty and Sharing Prosperity was written jointly by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund, with substantive inputs from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This year's report details, for the first time, progress toward the WBG's twin goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity and assesses the state of policies and institutions that are important for achieving them. The report continues to monitor progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Also for the first time, the report includes information about high-income countries. It finds that while gaps in living standards have been closing in many countries, the well-being of households in the bottom 40 percent, as measured by the non-income MDGs such as access to education and health services, remains below that of households in the top 60 percent. The focus of this year's report is on three elements needed to make growth more inclusive and sustainable: investment in human capital that favors the poor, the best use of safety nets, and steps to ensure the environmental sustainability of economic growth. These three elements are imperative to all countries' development strategies, and are also fundamental to global efforts to achieve the twin goals, the MDGs, and the Sustainable Development Goals that will succeed the MDGs. Global Monitoring Report 2014/2015 was prepared in collaboration with regional development banks and other multilateral partners.