Download or read book Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices written by Mr. Evan Papageorgiou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-16 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.

Download or read book Europe s Hidden Capital Markets written by Jean-Pierre Casey and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2005 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing regulatory measures taken at the EU level that impact European bond markets, this book examines the desirability, utility, and feasibility of certain policy measures.

Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

Download or read book This Changes Everything Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in 98 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995–2017. We find that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change have a significant impact on the cost government borrowing, after controlling for conventional determinants of sovereign risk. That is, countries that are more resilient to climate change have lower bond yields and spreads relative to countries with greater vulnerability to risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, partitioning the sample into country groups reveals that the magnitude and statistical significance of these effects are much greater in developing countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.

Download or read book The European Central Bank between the Financial Crisis and Populisms written by Corrado Macchiarelli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-25 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​In light of the handover from the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde in November 2019, this book provides an in-depth analysis of the events which unfolded since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2010 up until today. The book focuses on the far-reaching implications of the last decade, shedding light on a wide spectrum of political, economic and financial aspects of the European poly-crises and how monetary policy reacted to these challenges. The book places particular emphasis on the tensions that the supranational central bank was subject to during this period, and on their outcomes in terms of the policies, their legitimacy, and their public reception. As such, this book will be relevant not only to understand the political implications of the past crisis but also, and foremost, in understanding "what is next".

Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Download or read book Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Balazs Csonto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-10 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are important in the long-run, global factors are main determinants of spreads in the short-run. Second, we investigate whether and how the strength of fundamentals is related to the sensitivity of spreads to global factors. Countries with stronger fundamentals tend to have lower sensitivity to changes in global risk aversion. Third, we decompose changes in spreads and analyze the behavior of explained and unexplained components over different periods. To do so, we break down fitted changes in spreads into the contribution of country-specific and global factors, as well as decompose changes in the residual into the correction of initial misalignment and an increase/decrease in misalignment. We find that changes in spreads follow periods of tightening/widening, which are well-explained by the model; and the dynamics of the components of the unexplained residual follow all the major developments that impact market sentiment. In particular, we find that in the periods of severe marketstress, such as during the intensive phase of the Eurozone debt crisis, global factors tend to drive changes in the spreads and the misalignment tends to increase in magnitude and its relative share in actual spreads.

Download or read book Emerging Market Volatility written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-02 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

Download or read book Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia s Local Currency Government Bond OFZ Market written by Yinqiu Lu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-10 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.

Download or read book How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads written by Jacopo Cimadomo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

Download or read book European Fixed Income Markets written by Jonathan A. Batten and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-04-21 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The introduction of the euro in 1999 cast a new focus on the financial markets of constituent euro-zone countries, which have subsequently emerged with the second largest bond market in the world. This new book offers in depth insights and advice for any practitioner in the European fixed-income and ancillary derivative markets, and includes in-depth analysis of euro and non-euro markets as well as emerging countries.

Download or read book Bayesian Econometrics written by Mauro Bernardi and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-28 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

Download or read book Fragilities in the U S Treasury Market written by Antoine Bouveret and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-13 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in the structure of the U.S. Treasury market over recent years may have increased risks to financial stability. Traditional market makers have changed their liquidity provision by increasingly switching from risk warehousing to risk distribution, and a new breed of market maker has emerged with the rise of electronic trading. The “flash rally” of October 15, 2014 provides a clear example of how those risks can materialize. Based on an in-depth analysis of the event—complementing the authorities’ work—we suggest i) providing incentives for liquidity provision, ii) improving market safeguards, and iii) enhancing the regulation of the Treasury market.

Download or read book Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization written by Augusto de la Torre and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006-10-20 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.

Download or read book Proceedings of MAC EMM 2015 in Prague written by group of authors and published by MAC Prague consulting. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Empirical Research on Islam and Economic Life written by M. Kabir Hassan and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Islamic jurisprudence, a comprehensive ethic has been formulated governing how business and commerce should be run, how accountability to God and the community is to be achieved, and how banking and finance is to be arranged. This Handbook examines how well these values are translated into actual performance. It explores whether those holding true to the system are hindered and put at a disadvantage or whether the Islamic institutions have been able to demonstrate that faith-based activities can be rewarding, both economically and spiritually.

Download or read book Debt in Times of Crisis written by Thomas Poufinas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-27 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt, private and public, and in particular excessive debt, has been debated to be one of the root causes of economic crises. At the same time, economic crises are believed to lead to an increase of debt. This book, through a range of contributors, explores certain constituents of an economy and attempts to identify their contribution to debt (public and private), especially in times of crisis; namely, bonds, tariffs, social security and non-performing loans (NPLs). Furthermore, it captures the (implicit) impact of the demography on debt through tariffs and social security and investigates the effect of quantitative easing/purchase programs and as well as crises on debt. In addition, the (cost of the) reserve that a state may want to provision for, in order to secure its economy from defaulting within a certain time horizon, is also addressed and calculated. This calculation offers an alternative valuation, or pricing, of (excess) debt (default protection). This book aims to offer a comparative study of countries – especially those with a history of excessive debt - and intends to realize whether an economic crisis can genuinely deteriorate debt, or whether the debt unsustainability is preexisting to the crisis. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in economic policy and growth.