Download or read book Fundamentals Speculation and the Pricing of Crude Oil Futures written by Thomas Hoehl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2011-11 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Download or read book The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crude Oil Prices as Determined by OPEC and Market Fundamentals written by Paul W. MacAvoy and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fundamentals of Petroleum Trading written by Hossein Razavi and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1991-08-26 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until as recently as the late 1970s, the main channel for oil distribution was the integrated system of the major oil companies, while the volume of spot trading was limited to roughly 5 percent of the total oil trade. Today, spot and spot-related deals account for 80 to 85 percent of internationally traded petroleum, and have ushered in a new era of petroleum trading. In this work, Hossein Razavi and Fereidun Fesharaki offer a detailed study of the workings and issues surrounding today's oil trading market as they apply to all parties involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of petroleum. They provide a complete description of petroleum spot markets, futures, and options trading, and their interlinkages with contract sales. Razavi and Fesharaki cover a wide range of topics, and challenge the generally accepted view that spot and futures trading have wrested the power of price setting away from OPEC. They claim that prices are still determined by supply, which OPEC continues to influence. The book is divided into four sections, beginning with an overview of recent developments in spot, futures, and contract trading. Section two provides an analysis of spot and spot-related deals, while the third section describes the mechanics, organization, and evolution of petroleum futures markets and options trading. The work concludes with an in-depth section on interlinkages, examining the interactions among various segments of the market, including spot and futures trading, petroleum stock building, and OPEC. This book will be a valuable resource tool for libraries as well as a wide range of users, from oil industry professionals and financial analysts to students of energy-related topics.
Download or read book Peaks Spikes and Barrels written by Ms.Malika Pant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading in Oil Futures and Options written by Sally Clubley and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1998-10-15 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trading in Oil Futures and Options, thoroughly revised and updated, provides practical advice on when to make the decision to use futures; choosing a broker; and the mechanics of futures trading. This new edition has been extended to include all oil market trading instruments, and also gas and electricity derivatives. Updates the only comprehensive guide to oil futures and options Presents an international outlook on the topic Features a chapter on technical analysis and an appendix on the costs of futures trading
Download or read book Cme Vulnerability The The Impact Of Negative Oil Futures Trading written by George Xianzhi Yuan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-10-23 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2020, the global lockdowns caused by the COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic had resulted in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil. This impact was so severe that on April 8, 2020, a proposal to update the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) trading rule to permit negative prices was applied to CME's WTI Oil futures contracts; this led to a novel phenomenon in which the closing clearing price of WTI Oil May future was $-37.63/barrel based on fewer than 400 contracts' trading volume in the last three minutes, reflecting less than 0.2% of the total trading contracts volume on April 20, 2020. This occurrence of negative closing clearing price for CME's WTI Oil futures trading, cannot be explained simply by just the principle of supply and demand; instead, it highlights vulnerabilities caused by CME's allowance of negative price trading (based on its trading platform), a decision which brings potential and fundamental challenges to the global financial system.This event challenges not just our basic concepts of 'value' and trading 'price' of commodities and goods that underline our understanding of the framework for the invisible hand and general equilibrium theory in economics established by a few generations of scholars since Adam Smith in 1776 for market economies, but also have wider implications on the fundamentals that underpin our ideas of value and labor in the organization, activity, and behavior of civilizations and individual liberties.The scope of this book is limited to covering the impact of the negative oil futures derivatives' trading between April 20 and 21, 2020. This book focuses on exploring the issues, challenges, and possible impacts on global financial markets due to the negative clearing prices of WTI Oil futures contracts and related problems from different perspectives. Topics covered include the responsibilities and liabilities of the CME; critique to the fundamental theory of economics and the modern understanding of value and labor; and challenges to the global financial systems and businesses and introduction to new methods of application.
Download or read book Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-12-27 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Download or read book Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Crude Oil written by Basil Oberholzer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global crude oil market is critically important in many respects. It is the fuel that drives the global economy and, as such, is the focus of climate policies. Moreover, crude oil is the basis of a tradable financial asset. It is therefore connected to several outstanding macroeconomic developments of recent years, including financial market fluctuations, the financial crisis and the exceptional conduct of monetary policy. This book investigates the impacts of monetary policy and the financial system on the global crude oil market. Furthermore, it outlines how monetary policy may also be used to guarantee stability and to contribute to ecological sustainability.
Download or read book Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculative Investment in Energy Markets written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Energy and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculation in the Crude Oil Market written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fundamentals of Trading Energy Futures and Options written by Steven Errera and published by Pennwell Books. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trading in energy futures and options plays a key role in hedging against fluctuations in the price of energy commodities, especially crude oil and natural gas. This long-awaited new edition highlights how exchange-traded futures and options markets work and how companies can successfully use the markets in their overall strategy to increase profitability. This wide-ranging new edition offers valuable insight for young professionals and students. Discussions on market efficiency, the role of commodities in Modern Portfolio Theory, and the NYMEX introduction of Clearport are all covered in this introduction to futures markets.
Download or read book Oil Futures Trading written by Hossein Razavi and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
