Download or read book Forecasts of the 1999 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay Using Traditional FRI Methodology written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The 1999 FRI Preseason Forecast of the Bristol Bay Sockeye Run Using an Alternative Approach written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecast of the 2000 Run of Sockeye Salmon to Bristol Bay written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inseason Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returns to the Bristol Bay Districts of Alaska written by Saang-Yoon Hyun and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has been the most valuable salmon fishery in North America, and provides season employment for several thousand workers. The fishery consists of five reasonably discrete fishing districts corresponding to watersheds where the salmon are returning to spawn. The long term objective of management is to achieve Maximum Sustained Yield from the fishery, and this is implemented on an annual basis by regulating the time allowed for fishing to allow a predetermined number of fish to pass the fishery and make it to their natal streams and lakes to spawn. The expected total return of fish to each district is an important part of the fishery management and is equally important to the fishing fleet and the fish processors. I developed a statistical model for inseason run size prediction that uses data from (1) a test fishery at Pt. Moller, (2) the age composition of the catch at Pt. Moller, (3) the total return to date by district and (4) the age composition of the return to each district. Optimization and Bayesian methods are used to obtain both point estimates and distributions of estimates. I found that the temporal pattern in catches at Pt. Moller explained 59% of the variation in run timing in the fishing districts. Using the preseason forecast as a prior significantly improved the performance of the estimation during the initial stage of the season. This method provides a consistent way to incorporate diverse forms of data in a single unified statistical framework that should provide a significant improvement in inseason run forecasting. The method was tested using data from 1999 and found to perform well. In terms of the absolute values of relative errors of forecasts of the returns to the main districts (Kvichak-Naknek, Egegik, and Nushagak) made on June 24, June 29, and July 4, the mean values were 86.7%, 72.4%, and 59.9% when preseason forecasts were not incorporated, whereas they were 27.6%,25.4%, and 20.9% when preseason forecasts were incorporated.
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1998 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1997 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1993 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1998 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1994 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Alaska Salmon Research 1999 written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecast of the 2001 Run of Sockeye Salmon to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1996 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecast of the Sockeye Salmon Run to Bristol Bay in 1969 Based on Purse Seine Catches of Immature Sockeye Salmon South of Adak written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1995 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecast of the Sockeye Salmon Run to Bristol Bay in 1973 written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returning to Bristol Bay Alaska in 1990 written by Stephen M. Fried and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The total number of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) forecasted to return to Bristol Bay in 1990 is 26,724,000 ( 80% confidence interval: 16,365,000 43,641,000). Runs are expected to exceed spawning escapement goals for all systems. Total projected sockeye salmon harvest is expected to be 15,989,000 (80% CI: 7,630,000 - 28,906,000). Most of this harvest will be taken within Bristol Bay inshore fishing districts (14,662,000), but some has been allocated to fisheries occurring in June in the vicinity of the Shumagin Islands and South Unimak under an existing management plan (8.3% of total Bristol Bay projected harvest: 1,327,000). The 1990 forecast was based on the ADF&G method which averaged results from three linear regression models based on the relationship between returns and either spawner, sibling, or smelt data. Based on the expected performance of several modifications of the ADF&G method, all available data was used to forecast 1990 runs to Nushagak and Togiak Districts, but data prior to the 1978 return year was omitted from calculations for Naknek-Kvichak, Egegik and Ugashik Districts. Al though out of range data were not used in calculations, their occurrence suggested that age-2.3 predictions for Kvichak, Egegik, and Ugashik Rivers could be too low. This could place the actual total return within the upper range of the 80% CI. The outlook for 1991-1993, based only on the spawner-recruit component of the ADF&G method, is for the total sockeye salmon run to Bristol Bay to be greatest in 1990 and least in 1991, mostly due to variations in the Kvichak River run. For all years examined, runs to all river systems are expected to exceed spawning goal requirements.
Download or read book Forecast of the Sockeye Salmon Run to Bristol Bay in 1976 written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
