Download or read book Forecasting VaR and CVaR Based on a Skewed Exponential Power Mixture in Compliance with the New Market Risk Regulation written by Samir Saissi Hassani and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using Skewed Exponential Power Mixture for VaR and CVaR Forecasts to Comply with Market Risk Regulation written by Samir Saissi Hassani and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Value at risk Forecasting Based on the Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution written by Lu Ou and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Value-at-risk (VaR) is a standard measure of market risk in financial markets. This paper proposes a novel, adaptive, and flexible method to forecast volatility, asymmetry, and VaR. As an extension of the existing exponential smoothing as well as GARCH formulations, the method is motivated from an Asymmetric Exponential Power distribution, which includes the Laplace, Normal, and Uniform distributions as special cases and takes into account the potentially time-varying nature in volatility and skewness of financial return series. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation study and an empirical application to the S&P 500 index illustrate that the proposed method offers more accurate and robust VaR forecasts across a range of models at different confidence levels compared to other popular parametric alternatives.
Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting Dynamic VAR Thresholds for Risk Management and Regulation written by David E. Allen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes alternative methods of estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds based on two calibrated models and three conditional volatility or GARCH models. The five models of volatility are used to estimate and forecast the VaR thresholds of an equally-weighted portfolio, comprising four financial stock indexes, namely Samp;P500, CAC40, FTSE100 a Swiss market index (SMI). On the basis of the number of (non-)violations of the Basel Accord thresholds, the best performing model is PS-GARCH, followed closely by VARMA-AGARCH, neither of which would lead to the imposition of any penalties. The next best performing threshold forecasts are given by the Portfolio-GARCH and RiskmetricsTM-EWMA models, both of which would have a penalty of 0.5. Not surprisingly, the worst forecasts are obtained from the standard normal method based on historical variances.
Download or read book The New International Regulation of Market Risk written by Samir Saissi Hassani and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Value at Risk Under Different Distributional Assumptions written by Manuela Braione and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial asset returns are known to be conditionally heteroskedastic and generally non-normally distributed, fat-tailed and often skewed. These features must be taken into account to produce accurate forecasts of Value-at-Risk (VaR). We provide a comprehensive look at the problem by considering the impact that different distributional assumptions have on the accuracy of both univariate and multivariate GARCH models in out-of-sample VaR prediction. The set of analyzed distributions comprises the normal, Student, Multivariate Exponential Power and their corresponding skewed counterparts. The accuracy of the VaR forecasts is assessed by implementing standard statistical backtesting procedures used to rank the different specifications. The results show the importance of allowing for heavy-tails and skewness in the distributional assumption with the skew-Student outperforming the others across all tests and confidence levels.
Download or read book The Value at risk Reference written by Jon Danielsson and published by Risk. This book was released on 2007 with total page 539 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-stop reference pulling together leading published research and analysis about VaR and market risk. An invaluable summary for practitioners and researchers looking for an independent evaluation of VaR and insight into how and when it should be used.
Download or read book Regulatory Evaluation of Value at risk Models written by Jose A. Lopez and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-04 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Digital and Social Media Marketing written by Nripendra P. Rana and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines issues and implications of digital and social media marketing for emerging markets. These markets necessitate substantial adaptations of developed theories and approaches employed in the Western world. The book investigates problems specific to emerging markets, while identifying new theoretical constructs and practical applications of digital marketing. It addresses topics such as electronic word of mouth (eWOM), demographic differences in digital marketing, mobile marketing, search engine advertising, among others. A radical increase in both temporal and geographical reach is empowering consumers to exert influence on brands, products, and services. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and digital media are having a significant impact on the way people communicate and fulfil their socio-economic, emotional and material needs. These technologies are also being harnessed by businesses for various purposes including distribution and selling of goods, retailing of consumer services, customer relationship management, and influencing consumer behaviour by employing digital marketing practices. This book considers this, as it examines the practice and research related to digital and social media marketing.
Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Download or read book Modeling Income Distributions and Lorenz Curves written by Duangkamon Chotikapanich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-16 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jean-Jacques Rousseau wrote in the Preface to his famous Discourse on Inequality that “I consider the subject of the following discourse as one of the most interesting questions philosophy can propose, and unhappily for us, one of the most thorny that philosophers can have to solve. For how shall we know the source of inequality between men, if we do not begin by knowing mankind?” (Rousseau, 1754). This citation of Rousseau appears in an article in Spanish where Dagum (2001), in the memory of whom this book is published, also cites Socrates who said that the only useful knowledge is that which makes us better and Seneca who wrote that knowing what a straight line is, is not important if we do not know what rectitude is. These references are indeed a good illustration of Dagum’s vast knowledge, which was clearly not limited to the ?eld of Economics. For Camilo the ?rst part of Rousseau’s citation certainly justi?ed his interest in the ?eld of inequality which was at the centre of his scienti?c preoccupations. It should however be stressed that for Camilo the second part of the citation represented a “solid argument in favor of giving macroeconomic foundations to microeconomic behavior” (Dagum, 2001). More precisely, “individualism and methodological holism complete each other in contributing to the explanation of individual and social behavior” (Dagum, 2001).
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Risk Management written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-10 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of derivative products in risk management has spread from commodities, stocks and fixed income items, to such virtual commodities as energy, weather and bandwidth. All this can give rise to so-called volatility and there has been a consequent development in formal risk management techniques to cover all types of risk: market, credit, liquidity, etc. One of these techniques, Value at Risk, was developed specifically to help manage market risk over short periods. Its success led, somewhat controversially, to its take up and extension to credit risk over longer time-scales. This extension, ultimately not successful, led to the collapse of a number of institutions. The present book, which was originally published in 2002, by some of the leading figures in risk management, examines the complex issues that concern the stability of the global financial system by presenting a mix of theory and practice.
Download or read book Measuring Market Risk written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-28 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.
