Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by David Meiselman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco written by Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Download or read book Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.

Download or read book Fiscal Deficits Public Debt and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

Download or read book Negative Interest Rates written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Download or read book Developing Government Bond Markets A Handbook written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001-09-21 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a comprehensive and authoritative reference for both senior policymakers—those responsible for the development of government bond markets in their own countries—and all individuals responsible for guiding the market development process at the operational level—those who have a substantial need to understand the policy issues involved.

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Download or read book What Determines U S Swap Spreads written by Ádám Kóbor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: References p. 45-47.

Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Download or read book Monetary and Exchange System Reforms in China written by Mr.Bernard Laurens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-09-26 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

Download or read book AI and Financial Markets written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as the science and technology for producing an intelligent machine, particularly, an intelligent computer program. Machine learning is an approach to realizing AI comprising a collection of statistical algorithms, of which deep learning is one such example. Due to the rapid development of computer technology, AI has been actively explored for a variety of academic and practical purposes in the context of financial markets. This book focuses on the broad topic of “AI and Financial Markets”, and includes novel research associated with this topic. The book includes contributions on the application of machine learning, agent-based artificial market simulation, and other related skills to the analysis of various aspects of financial markets.

Download or read book The Liquidation of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.

Download or read book Emerging Market Volatility written by Ms.Ratna Sahay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-02 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: