Download or read book Forecasting Science and Technology for the Department of Defense written by John W. Lyons and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-07-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since World War II, predictions of science and technology for military applications have occurred periodically. A study chartered by the Army Air Force predicted in 1947 a broad range of developments in aeronautics and air power and has been a model for such forecasts ever since. Projections in science and technology have been issued for many years by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies, which publishes decadal studies for specific disciplines. Such studies for astronomy and astrophysics, for example, go back to at least 1964. An important task of DOD science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, with the result being new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Shaping the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies that have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive, handheld receivers; the microprocessor revolution, which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications in the hands of soldiers in the field; new sensing capabilities such as night vision; and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments, and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors, but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can. In the Department of Defense (DOD), the last series of forecast studies was done in the 1990s. In 2008, National Defense University's Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) assessed the Army's STAR 21 (Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century) study,3 in which the basic and applied sciences were assessed and forecast as separate and discrete disciplines. Future capabilities were discussed in a separate set of STAR 21 volumes on systems. In general, the technologies of individual systems were not discussed with reference to the underlying sciences. This separation of future capabilities from the underlying S&T forecasts was true for the studies of all three services.
Download or read book Forecasting Science and Technology for the Department of Defense written by John W. Lyons and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper begins with a discussion of recent trends in S&T, particularly how various disciplines have converged to produce new capabilities. There follows consideration of how a new series of studies might be conducted with an eye to taking into account such convergences. Offers a detailed set of recommendations on the organization and management of a series of tri-service studies.
Download or read book Improving the Army s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting written by John W. Lyons and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important challenge for the Department of Defense (DOD) science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, resulting in new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Proper shaping of the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies which have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive hand held receivers, the microprocessor revolution which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications into the hands of soldiers in the field, new sensing capabilities such as night vision, the use of unmanned vehicles, and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these new technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors; but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can. As the Army considers its next comprehensive technology forecasting effort as a follow-on to STAR 21, it should not only take into account the concepts of technology convergence, but also tie them together with the capabilities desired by the warfighter.
Download or read book Forecasting Science and Technology for the Department of Defense written by John W. Lyons and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper begins with a discussion of recent trends in S&T, particularly how various disciplines have converged to produce new capabilities. There follows consideration of how a new series of studies might be conducted with an eye to taking into account such convergences. Offers a detailed set of recommendations on the organization and management of a series of tri-service studies.
Download or read book Improving the Army s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting written by John Lyons and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-07-05 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important challenge for the Department of Defense (DOD) science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, resulting in new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Proper shaping of the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies which have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive hand held receivers, the microprocessor revolution which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications into the hands of soldiers in the field, new sensing capabilities such as night vision, the use of unmanned vehicles, and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these new technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors; but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can.
Download or read book Improving the Army s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An important challenge for the Department of Defense (DOD) science and technology (S & T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S & T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, resulting in new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Proper shaping of the S & T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies which have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive hand held receivers, the microprocessor revolution which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications into the hands of soldiers in the field, new sensing capabilities such as night vision, the use of unmanned vehicles, and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these new technologies came from military S & T, some from commercial developments and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors; but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S & T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can. ... As the Army considers its next comprehensive technology forecasting effort as a follow-on to STAR 21, it should not only take into account the concepts of technology convergence, but also tie them together with the capabilities desired by the warfighter."--Page 1-2.
Download or read book Improving the Army s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting written by Center for Technology and National Security Policy and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-06-08 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important challenge for the Department of Defense (DOD) science and technology (S&T) programs is to avoid technological surprise resulting from the exponential increase in the pace of discovery and change in S&T worldwide. The nature of the military threat is also changing, resulting in new military requirements, some of which can be met by technology. Proper shaping of the S&T portfolio requires predicting and matching these two factors well into the future. Some examples of technologies which have radically affected the battlefield include the Global Positioning System coupled with inexpensive hand held receivers, the microprocessor revolution which has placed the power of the Internet and satellite communications into the hands of soldiers in the field, new sensing capabilities such as night vision, the use of unmanned vehicles, and composite materials for armor and armaments. Some of these new technologies came from military S&T, some from commercial developments and still others from a synthesis of the two sectors; but all were based on advances in the underlying sciences. Clearly, leaders and planners in military S&T must keep abreast of such developments and look ahead as best they can.
Download or read book Harnessing the Genie written by Office of Air Force History and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph on the forecasting of long-range Air Force science began as an attempt to describe the five major scientific studies undertaken by the U.S. Army Air Forces (USAAF)/U.S. Air Force (USAF) since the end of World War II. These reports included Toward New Horizons (1945), the Woods Hole Summer Studies (1957-1958), Project Forecast (1964), New Horizons II (1975), and Project Forecast II (1986). They seemed at first to represent nothing more than isolated efforts to predict the technological future. But shortly after initiating research on the subject, it became clear that several themes linked the five reports. Rather than a collection of unrelated analyses, common threads were seen to run through them. The realization of this pattern was surprising. Taken at face value, the reports appeared to be entirely different. They were not produced in any one place; they were not directed by people with similar backgrounds or educations. Both in number and type of participants, they differed widely. Methodologies were not at all uniform. Their conclusions varied significantly. In fact, they did not even have the same purposes. Toward New Horizons was initiated to summarize the most advanced air power technologies of World War II and project them into the future . The Woods Hole Summer Studies organized hundreds of academic scientists to predict the short and long-term military uses of space. Project Forecast had the mandate of revitalizing Air Force thinking by linking national policy issues to scientific vistas and new weapon systems. New Horizons II endeavored to point the way toward technological improvements in a period of expected scarcity. Finally, Project Forecast II sought to infuse the Air Force laboratories with new avenues of basic science research. Thus, for a variety of internal and external reasons, at roughly ten year intervals since the Second World War, the Air Force launched major science and technology forecasts.
Download or read book Harnessing the genie science and technology forecasting for the Air Force 1944 1986 written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Harnessing the Genie written by Michael H. Gorn and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beskriver hvorledes USAF benytter videnskaben og den teknologiske udvikling til at optimere sin Air Power også på længere sigt
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies and published by . This book was released on 2010-01-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Download or read book Harnessing the Genie written by Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2017-09-07 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Air power has always been closely linked to science and technology. The very reality of flight depended upon a technical innovation. Unlike the other services, where machines merely support the mission, technology is for the Air Force at the very heart of its existence as an institution. As a consequence, the USAF and its predecessor organizations have always recognized the singular importance of science to their survival. This lesson was driven home with new urgency on December 7, 1941. No longer were American borders secure against aerial bombardment. The Japanese proved at Pearl Harbor that U.S. territory was not immune from attack; waves of bombers might strike without warning and with devastating effects. Commanding General of the Army Air Forces Henry H. Arnold countered the threat, at least in part, with brainpower from the universities. Three years later, with victory close at hand, Arnold began to consider the safety of the country once the war was over. The danger of sudden and devastating raids had greatly increased since Pearl Harbor. He turned, as he had during the war, to academia and enlisted the help of Dr. Theodore von Karman, asking him to assemble a group of top scientists to review aeronautical research and make recommendations about the future of air power in light of probable scientific opportunities in the decades to come. The result is felt in the Air Force yet today, for Toward New Horizons, written by von Karman's USAF Scientific Advisory Group, has endured as the model for Air Force science and technology forecasts. Renamed the USAF Scientific Advisory Board, the institution von Karman created has also endured. Harnessing the Genie tells us that while both the report and the board continue to be regarded with the utmost respect, their roles have been imperceptibly transformed over time. Toward New Horizons was followed in 1957 and 1958 by the Woods Hole Summer Studies, in 1964 by Project Forecast, in 1975 by New Horizons II, and in 1986 by Project Forecast II. But with each report, the likeness to von Karman's model has become more remote. The extent of reliance on independent advice has steadily lessened and greater emphasis placed on internal USAF sources for forecasting the future. As a consequence, the Scientific Advisory Board is no longer involved in long-range, broadly based forecasting envisioned by von Karman, but devotes itself to giving advice on technical subjects. Moreover, no institution has arisen to claim control over the process of forecasting and directing the pace and direction of technological change. Instead, the direction of technological forecasting of long-range research and development has wandered from the National Academy of Sciences to the Air Force Systems Command to the Air Staff, and back again to Systems Command. The reports themselves have changed accordingly. Toward New Horizons, rooted in the basic sciences, stressed the abstract principles of nature and how they related to air-power advancements. As their participants have gradually become more closely associated with the Air Force, the subsequent studies have become more technological than scientific, reflecting a declining representation of independent scientists on the succeeding panels. Thus, Harnessing the Genie describes and analyzes the methodologies and conclusions of the five main science and technology forecasts undertaken by the Air Force since before its birth as an independent service. Hopefully, this work will provide useful background as the Air Force grapples with the technological demands of national security in the 21st century. Harnessing the Genie: Science and Technology Forecasting for the Air Force - 1944-1986 * Introduction * Chapter I - A Mandate for Civilian Science, 1944-1950 * Chapter II - The Decline of Civilian Science, 1950-1958 * Chapter III - Conforming Science to Military Necessity, 1956-1966 * Chapter IV - Scientists in Uniform, 1966-1986 * Conclusion
Download or read book Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future written by Richard E. Darilek and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study evaluated the U.S. Air Force's survey of emerging technologies of the future, Project Forecast II, for its relevance to the Army's potential requirements for the future, as indicated by the Army 21 Interim Operational Concept. The study concluded that there is a high correlation between the Army's needs and the technologies identified in Forecast II, although the Army could benefit from a poll of its contractors to uncover more Army-relevant technologies. In addition, by using systems as the bridge between projected technologies and specified military capability requirements, as the Air Force did in Forecast II, the Army could take advantage of a valuable means of establishing and gauging the relevance of emerging technologies to future requirements.
Download or read book Harnessing the Genie Science and Technology Forecasting for the Air Force 1944 1986 written by Michael Gorn and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-06-18 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Air power has always been linked closely to science and technology. The very reality of flight depended upon a technical innovation. Unlike other services, where machines merely support the mission, technology is for the Air Force at the very heart of its existence as an institution. As a consequence, the USAF and its predecessor organizations have always recognized the singular importance of science to their survival. This book describes and analyzes the methodologies and conclusions of the five main science and technology forecasts undertaken by the Air Force since before its birth as an independent service.
Download or read book Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future Lessons from Forecast II written by R. E. Darilek and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study evaluated the U.S. Air Forces's survey of emerging technologies of the future, Project Forecast II, for its relevance to the Army's potential; requirements for the future, as indicated by the Army 21 Interim Operational Concept. The study concluded that there is a high correlation between the Army's needs and the technologies identified in Forecast II, although the Army could benefit from a poll of its contractors to uncover more Army-relevant technologies. In addition, by using systems as the bridge between projected technologies and specified military capability requirements, as the Air Force did in Forecast II, the Army could take advantage of a valuable means of establishing and gauging the relevance of emerging technologies to future requirements. Keywords: Technology forecasting; Advanced weapons; Weapon systems; Military requirements; Air Force planning; Air Force procurement; Army planning; Army procurement; (SDW).
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
