Download or read book Forecasting Private Consumption written by Torsten Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys written by Christian Dreger and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in EEC Countries SKIM Model Results and Comparison with Others Approaches written by Matilde Arranz and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting private consumption structure in EEC countries written by Matilde Arranz and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in EEC Countries written by Matilde Arranz Pérez and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.

Download or read book Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices The Case of France written by Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.

Download or read book Forecasting Consumption written by Kajal Lahiri and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the extant literature in three substantive ways: First, we reexamine existing empirical models of consumption and consumer confidence not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real-time data in addition to commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich information context. We produce forecasts of consumption expenditures with and without consumer confidence measures using a dynamic factor model and a large, real-time, jagged-edge data set. In a robust way, we establish the important role of confidence surveys in improving the accuracy of consumption forecasts, manifesting primarily through the services component. During the recession of 2007-09, sentiment is found to have a more pervasive effect on all components of aggregate consumption - durables, non-durables and services.

Download or read book Forecasting Personal Consumption Expenditures from Cross section and Time series Data written by Paul Devine and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Improvement of Economic Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting U S Investment written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a crucial issue for the U.S. and global recovery. On the basis of several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period. The contribution of investment to real GDP growth will be 0.8 percentage points on average over the same period.

Download or read book Use of the Consumption Function in Short Run Forecasting written by Robert V. Roosa and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption written by Konstantin A. Kholodilin (Economiste.) and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Household Consumption Components written by Angelia L. Grant and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices and the almost ideal demand system developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) is found to offer a more robust forecasting framework than using one of the single models alone. In particular, the combination approach outperforms the almost ideal demand system, which is currently used by the Australian Treasury to forecast the components of consump- tion. The combination framework takes advantage of models that account for the persistence and longer-term trends experienced in a number of the consumption components, as well as shifts caused by evident relative price changes. A forecast combination framework is shown to be particularly useful when forecasting over a three-year forecasting period.

Download or read book Economic Forecasts written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Unformalised Forecasting Model written by Aleksander Markowski and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report describing the forecasting technique and econometric model used for economic forecasts by the national institute of economic research in Sweden - outlines form of the relations in the notional ki-model as well another econometric models connected with it, and gives an example with respect to the consumption relation. Diagram, graphs, references and statistical tables.

Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.