Download or read book Forecasting New Jersey s Electricity Demand Using Auto Regressive Models written by Shankar Chandramowli and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is an important tool in planning and policy making. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for power systems planning, efficient dispatching of electricity in the grid and to forecast other macro-economic trends. This paper summarizes and presents auto-regressive techniques/processes as a practical tool in forecasting electricity demand. This paper attempts to model the long-term electricity demand for New Jersey using three different auto-regression models: ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) model, Vector auto-regressions (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR). The application of VAR/BVAR to electricity demand forecasting is relatively new and untested. The forecasting performance of each model is assessed using different forecast error metrics. For the given case study, the VAR model produced the best forecast.
Download or read book Computational Science ICCS 2021 written by Maciej Paszynski and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The six-volume set LNCS 12742, 12743, 12744, 12745, 12746, and 12747 constitutes the proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2021, held in Krakow, Poland, in June 2021.* The total of 260 full papers and 57 short papers presented in this book set were carefully reviewed and selected from 635 submissions. 48 full and 14 short papers were accepted to the main track from 156 submissions; 212 full and 43 short papers were accepted to the workshops/ thematic tracks from 479 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: Part I: ICCS Main Track Part II: Advances in High-Performance Computational Earth Sciences: Applications and Frameworks; Applications of Computational Methods in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence and High-Performance Computing for Advanced Simulations; Biomedical and Bioinformatics Challenges for Computer Science Part III: Classifier Learning from Difficult Data; Computational Analysis of Complex Social Systems; Computational Collective Intelligence; Computational Health Part IV: Computational Methods for Emerging Problems in (dis-)Information Analysis; Computational Methods in Smart Agriculture; Computational Optimization, Modelling and Simulation; Computational Science in IoT and Smart Systems Part V: Computer Graphics, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence; Data-Driven Computational Sciences; Machine Learning and Data Assimilation for Dynamical Systems; MeshFree Methods and Radial Basis Functions in Computational Sciences; Multiscale Modelling and Simulation Part VI: Quantum Computing Workshop; Simulations of Flow and Transport: Modeling, Algorithms and Computation; Smart Systems: Bringing Together Computer Vision, Sensor Networks and Machine Learning; Software Engineering for Computational Science; Solving Problems with Uncertainty; Teaching Computational Science; Uncertainty Quantification for Computational Models *The conference was held virtually.
Download or read book ECML PKDD 2020 Workshops written by Irena Koprinska and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-01 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume constitutes the refereed proceedings of the workshops which complemented the 20th Joint European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD, held in September 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic the conference and workshops were held online. The 43 papers presented in volume were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The volume presents the papers that have been accepted for the following workshops: 5th Workshop on Data Science for Social Good, SoGood 2020; Workshop on Parallel, Distributed and Federated Learning, PDFL 2020; Second Workshop on Machine Learning for Cybersecurity, MLCS 2020, 9th International Workshop on New Frontiers in Mining Complex Patterns, NFMCP 2020, Workshop on Data Integration and Applications, DINA 2020, Second Workshop on Evaluation and Experimental Design in Data Mining and Machine Learning, EDML 2020, Second International Workshop on eXplainable Knowledge Discovery in Data Mining, XKDD 2020; 8th International Workshop on News Recommendation and Analytics, INRA 2020. The papers from INRA 2020 are published open access and licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand written by Kevin Berk and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-20 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.
Download or read book Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices written by Javier Contreras and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies
Download or read book Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks written by Maria Jacob and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-09-25 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
Download or read book Energy Forecasting for Planners written by Jon H. Weyland and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the increased public awareness of a deepening energy crisis, governments at all levels have begun to examine their ability to act meaningfully in response to forms of short- and long-term energy-related political pressures. Emergency preparedness, conservation programs, and contingency planning have become watchwords in our new energy bureaus.
Download or read book Forecasting Electricity Load in New Jersey with Artificial Neural Networks written by Erik W. Raab and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Load forecasting is an important tool for both the energy and environmental sectors. It has progressed hand-in-hand with machine learning innovation, where recurrent neural networks, a type of artificial neural network, is primarily used. This thesis compares progressively complex, feed-forward artificial neural networks using a mix of weather and temporal data. We demonstrate that electrical load in New Jersey can be reliably predicted using memory-less algorithms with minimal predictors drawn from preexisting public data sources. The methods used in this thesis could be used to build competitive load forecasting models in other states, and if included in diverse model ensembles, may generate significant improvements.
Download or read book Forecasting with Expectations Models written by Roberto de Arnaldo Silva Vellutini and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Energy Efficiency Analysis and Intelligent Optimization of Process Industry written by Zhiqiang Geng and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-10-09 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Short Term Load Forecasting 2019 written by Antonio Gabaldón and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-02-26 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.
Download or read book Modeling Daily Electricity Load Curve Using Cubic Splines and Functional Principal Components written by Abdelmonaem Salem Jornaz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Forecasting electricity load is very important to the electric utilities as well as producers of power because accurate predictions can cut down costs by avoiding power shortages or surpluses. Of specific interest is the 24-hour daily electricity load profile, which provides insight into periods of high demand and periods where the use of electricity is at a minimum. Researchers have proposed many approaches to modeling electricity prices, real-time load, and day-ahead demand, with varying success. In this dissertation three new approaches to modeling and forecasting the 24-hour daily electricity load profiles are presented. The application of the proposed methods is illustrated using hourly electricity load data from the Atlantic City Electric (AE) zone, which is part of the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) electricity market. The first approach that is proposed can be used to make short-term forecasts of electricity load. This approach employs a hybrid technique utilizing autoregressive moving average method (ARMA) and cubic spline models. The second approach is suitable for obtaining long-term forecasts of the daily electricity load and employs cubic splines with time varying coefficients. These coefficients are modeled as a multivariate time series using a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables to forecast the average daily electricity load profile for a future month. The last approach uses functional principal components to model the daily electricity load profile for each day as a linear combination of three eigenfunctions, with the coefficients of the day-specific linear combinations modeled as univariate time series using transfer functions. The fitted models from the three approaches were applied to data from a subsequent year and the results show that these models perform quite well"--Abstract, page iii.
Download or read book Statistical Modelling and Regression Structures written by Thomas Kneib and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-12 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions collected in this book have been written by well-known statisticians to acknowledge Ludwig Fahrmeir's far-reaching impact on Statistics as a science, while celebrating his 65th birthday. The contributions cover broad areas of contemporary statistical model building, including semiparametric and geoadditive regression, Bayesian inference in complex regression models, time series modelling, statistical regularization, graphical models and stochastic volatility models.
Download or read book Comparative Models for Electrical Load Forecasting written by Derek W. Bunn and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes a practical look at how short-term forecasting has actually been undertaken and is being developed in public utility organizations.
Download or read book Electric Load Forecasting written by Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Electricity Demand written by Vijayamohanan Pillai N. and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting of electricity consumption has become a significant element of utmost necessity of the planning exercise in the power sector, especially in the backdrop of the continuing energy crisis. The present work critically evaluates the electricity demand forecasting methodology available in general and proposes a methodology in the classical time series framework of multi-variate autoregressive-moving average (MARMA) model.
