Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather written by Donald M. Fuquay and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather written by Donald M. Fuquay and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather written by D. M. Fuquay and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather Classic Reprint written by Donald M. Fuquay and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2017-11-19 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather He is currently the Project Leader for Forest Fire Meteorology at the Northern Forest Fire Laboratory. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Level and Associated Weather written by and published by . This book was released on 19?? with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book LLAFFS written by Don J. Latham and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Lightning Activity Levels for the National Fire danger Rating System for the Western United States written by J. J. McCoy and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Lightning Activity Levels written by Mark A. Mollner and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The National Fire Weather Data Library written by Roland William Furman and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book First Cloud To Ground Lightning Timing Study written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-01-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS t

Download or read book Developing of Predictors for Cloud to Ground Lightning Activity Using Atmospheric Stability Indices written by Kenneth C. Venzke and published by . This book was released on 2001-03 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed examination was performed on several commonly applied atmospheric stability indices and lightning activity from 1993 to 2000 to determine the indices usefulness as predictive tools for determining cloud-to- ground lightning activity. Predetermined radii of 50 nautical miles around upper-air stations in the Midwest U.S. were used for the lightning summaries. Also explored is an improvement upon the commonly accepted thresholds of the stability indices as general thunderstorm indicators. An improvement was found and new threshold ranges were developed for relating stability index values to lightning occurrence. Traditional statistical regression methods failed to find a significant predictive relationship. By examining new techniques of data analysis, it was found that the detection and classification abilities of decision trees derived from the data-mining field best served the purposes of this study. Decision trees were examined on the large available database and significant results were found, resulting in the development of a lightning forecast tool for both the probability of lightning occurrence and its intensity. The predictive ability of the decision trees used in this study for lightning detection often exceeded 80-90% for most locations with a high degree of confidence. The most significant features of the decision tree results were formulated into a forecast prediction tool with summary results for each location analyzed. These are specified both graphically and textually in a user- friendly format for forecasters to use 55 a 'ready to use' predictive tool for forecasting lightning activity. The results of this study using classification and regression trees were significant enough to implement immediately as a forecast tool for the operational weather forecast environment. Appendix A of this study is written as a 'ready-to-use' forecast tool for weather forecasters.

Download or read book Predicting Lightning Events in the KSC Area written by Robert O. Berthel and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Analysis of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station written by Eric C. Muller and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We have conducted climate analyses of natural lightning activity at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). These analyses were conducted to improve forecasts of lightning related hazards for, and the planning of, space vehicle launches at KSC/CCAFS. If a space vehicle is hit by lightning during launch, the vehicle and payload may sustain irreparable damage. Lightning-based rules for conducting launch and vehicle preparation activities have been developed by launch managers at KSC/CCAFS. In this research, we investigated one aspect of these--the natural lightning launch commit criteria. Our goal was to improve the scientific basis for skillful forecasting of the probability of lightning hazards. Such forecasts have the potential to reduce lightning related risks to personnel and equipment, and to save millions of dollars in preparation and launch costs. Using cloud-to-ground lightning strike data from the National Lightning Detection Network during January 1989 through December 2008, we identified events in which the KSC/CCAFS natural lightning criteria for launches were violated--that is, when excessive lightning activity prevented or would have prevented launches from occurring. Based on these events, we developed daily and multi-day probabilities of lightning violations. We also developed and applied an objective statistical method for determining the seasonality of lightning and for identifying six lightning violation seasons through the course of the calendar year. These seasons were used as the basis for characterizing the temporal and spatial patterns associated with climate scale variations in lightning at KSC/CCAFS. We used atmospheric reanalysis data to analyze the physical processes that lead to interannual variability in: (a) lightning violations in each season; and (b) the start and end dates of the main lightning season. These analyses led to the identification of regional and global scale processes that tend to alter the probability of lightning violations, including: (1) shifts in the strength, latitude, and zonal extent of the Bermuda High; (2) alterations of regional scale divergence and convection, and (3) teleconnections to global scale climate variations. Several of these processes tend to be important in all or most of the six lightning violation seasons. The results of this study help form the foundation for improvements in the analysis and forecasting of natural lightning violations, and in the planning of launches at KSC/CCAFS.

Download or read book A Lightning Threat Index for South Africa Using Numerical Weather Prediction Data written by Morné Gijben and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lightning is a phenomenon that can cause death or injury to humans and animals, damage to infrastructures, and can be a hazard to various sectors like the aviation and forestry industries. There is a need for prediction techniques to ensure the protection of people and property. In this dissertation, a new lightning threat index (LTI) is proposed for southern Africa. The aim of the LTI is to identify the areas where lightning is likely to occur during the day. Before the LTI could be developed, it was necessary to identify candidate model predictors capable of predicting the occurrence of lightning. In total 25 predictors were selected from literature that showed promising results to forecast the occurrence of lightning. The selected predictors are different variations from the following six groups of parameters; convective available potential energy, lifted index, precipitable water, equivalent potential temperature, relative humidity and air temperature. This study identifies the parameter from each of the six groups capable of predicting the occurrence of lightning over southern Africa the best during spring and summer by means of stepwise logistic regression techniques. The six parameters identified in this study for spring are; the most unstable convective available potential energy in the 1 - 6 km above ground level range, surface lifted index, mean precipitable water in the 850 to 300 hPa layer, minimum relative humidity in the 3-6 km above ground level layer, equivalent potential temperature lapse rate between 700 and 500 hPa and mean temperature in the 850 700 hPa layer. During summer, the same parameters were identified, except that the average relative humidity in the 3-6 km above ground level layer and equivalent potential temperature lapse rate between 850 and 400 hPa were identified. After the most appropriate parameters, capable of predicting the occurrence of lightning, were identified, the development of the new LTI could commence. Since the goal was to develop a single index that utilises the different model predictors to forecast the binary outcome of lightning occurrence (yes or no), attention was given to binary logistic regression techniques. In this study a rare-event binary logistic regression technique is used to develop equations for the LTI that utilise NWP model output early in the morning to provide a probability forecast of where lightning is expected to occur during the day between 07:00 and 21:00 UTC. The new LTI is evaluated over an entire independent spring and summer season. Results show that the LTI forecasts have a high sensitivity and specificity for both the spring and summer seasons. The LTI is not so reliable during the spring season, since it over-forecasts the occurrence of lightning, but during the summer season, the LTI forecast is reliable, only slightly over-forecasting the lightning activity. The LTI produces sharp forecasts during both the spring and summer seasons. The LTI will be a useful tool to operational weather forecasters or sectors interested in lightning forecasts, to provide guidance early in the morning on the areas of interest where lightning can be expected during the day, and can ultimately contribute to society by aiding with timely warnings of lightning or thunderstorms to protect humans, animals and property.

Download or read book NFDRSPC written by Bryan G. Donaldson and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evolution of Cloud to Ground Lightning Discharges in Tornadic Thunderstorms written by Wendy L. Seaman and published by . This book was released on 2000-02 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Air Force operations are directly impacted by weather on a daily basis. Erroneous forecasts negatively impact mission readiness and consequently cost the government time, in terms of wasted man-hours, and money. Advanced forecast lead-time could make a difference to minimize loss to both USAF personnel and assets. This study examined lightning data from 64 storm events from 1995-2000 in search of unique lightning signatures indicative of tornadic activity. Overall flash rates, percentage of positive flashes, positive and negative peak currents and multiplicity for each case were separated into two categories based on tornado intensity and season of occurrence. Based on the research results, there is little evidence to support the theory that specific lightning trends emerge prior to tornadogenesis. Due to the inconsistent and unreliable nature of the results, exclusive use of this time-series technique is not recommended for use in operational forecasting. The use of conventional methods, such as radar and/or satellite, used in conjunction with cloud-to- ground lightning flash data may, however, provide insight as to how electrical and physical changes relate to the development of tornadoes within a storm. Intracloud lightning may also provide additional information on tornado development and should be included in future research projects.

Download or read book USDA Forest Service Research Paper INT written by and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: