Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness written by Andrew M. Rose and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness written by Andrew M. Rose and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness Volume 1 Issues written by A. M. Rose and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Report discusses a number of issues that bear on the development of formal analytic methods for predicting the potential effectiveness of alternative training devices. The discussion encompasses theoretical, practical, and methodological issues uncovered during review of the literature and analysis of the problem. With respect to theoretical issues, two fundamental sets of concerns are discussed. First, what is actually meant by the term device effectiveness? In this connection, the following issues are addressed: What is transfer of training? How is it measured? What are the alternatives to transfer of training as measures of effectiveness? The second concern regards the classes and types of variables that hypothetically, at least, influence device effectiveness. In this discussion, the classes of variables that are identified are treated within a program evaluation framework. This structure is introduced to help organize and conceptualize the training system design and evaluation problem. In the discussion fo practical and methodological issues, several topics related to real-world constraints on developing and evaluating a training device effectiveness forecasting procedure are considered. (Author).
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness Volume 3 Analytic Assessment of Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique written by A. M. Rose and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several analytic procedures were conducted to address various aspects of the scalar properties of the Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique (DEFT). These procedures included Monte Carlo simulations to assess the interpretation of DEFT output, sensitivity of DEFT parameters, comparison of outputs, stability, and interrater agreement. Results indicated that it would be necessary to incorporate assumptions regarding expected distributions of input variables in order to meaningfully interpret DEFT output. Also, the Monte Carlo analyses demonstrated the sensitivity of DEFT output scores to variations in inputs, and assessed the effects of various assumptions regarding measurement error on output scores. The interrater agreement issue was addressed by having several raters apply DEFT to the three actual training devices. Results indicated a high degree of consistency among raters for all devices for all levels of DEFT. Keywords: Transfer of training; Sensitivity analysis; Reliability.
Download or read book Forecasting Device Effectiveness Volume 2 Procedures written by A. M. Rose and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Army training developers need tools to aid in the design, acquisition, and use of simulation- and computer-based programs of instruction for weapon operation and maintenance. One critical need is a job aid for the design and evaluation of training devices during all stages in the weapon acquisition cycle. This series of three reports describes one approach to such aiding--a hybrid of decision analysis and mathematical modeling. The approach provides numerical estimates of device effectiveness which are based on expert ratings of trainee and task characteristics, functional and physical similarity between the proposed device and the operational equipment, and the instructional characteristics of the device. It is an analytic, computer-based technique--a menu-driven system--which can be used at any stage of training device design. This report describes an analytic training Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique known as DEFT. DEFT accounts for device in terms of several different criteria and classes of independent predictor variables. In its present form, DEFT is a series of interactive, menu-driven computer programs that provide for three levels of device evaluation. The level of analysis is chosen as function of the type of input data that are available and the degree of diagnositicity that is needed. The report includes a DEFT User's Manual and listings of DEFT programs. Additional keywords: acquisition of skills; transfer of training; COBOL programming language.
Download or read book The Prediction of Training Device Effectiveness A Review of Army Models written by D. R. Tufano and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is a critical review of the analytic models which have been developed by the Army to predict training device effectiveness. In particular, special consideration is given to a family of models known collectively as TRAINVICE. Although they are all intended to provide an index of transfer potential, these four models differ in several important ways. The variables considered in the calculation of the indices are given different degrees of emphasis (or weight) in each model. In fact, in some cases a variable is ignored completely; e.g., the instructional features of a training device. The preparatory analyses employed to estimate the values of each variable change a great deal from model to model. Moreover, the combinatorial procedures used to calculate an index of effectiveness from the variable values are very different in each model. A major goal of this report is to present the principle points of difference among the various predictive models, and thus facilitate a comparative assessment of their merit. The results of the analysis and subsequent validation will provide a basis for the selection/refinement of one or more of the models for incorporation into a defined set of procedures for specifying training device effectiveness.
Download or read book The Prediction of Training Device Effectiveness A Review of Army Models written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is a critical review of the analytic models which have been developed by the Army to predict training device effectiveness. In particular, special consideration is given to a family of models known collectively as TRAINVICE. Although they are all intended to provide an index of transfer potential, these four models differ in several important ways. The variables considered in the calculation of the indices are given different degrees of emphasis (or weight) in each model. In fact, in some cases a variable is ignored completely; e.g., the instructional features of a training device. The preparatory analyses employed to estimate the values of each variable change a great deal from model to model. Moreover, the combinatorial procedures used to calculate an index of effectiveness from the variable values are very different in each model. A major goal of this report is to present the principle points of difference among the various predictive models, and thus facilitate a comparative assessment of their merit. The results of the analysis and subsequent validation will provide a basis for the selection/refinement of one or more of the models for incorporation into a defined set of procedures for specifying training device effectiveness.
Download or read book Fair Weather written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-05-14 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decades of evolving U.S. policy have led to three sectors providing weather servicesâ€"NOAA (primarily the National Weather Service [NWS]), academic institutions, and private companies. This three-sector system has produced a scope and diversity of weather services in the United States second to none. However, rapid scientific and technological change is changing the capabilities of the sectors and creating occasional friction. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services examines the roles of the three sectors in providing weather and climate services, the barriers to interaction among the sectors, and the impact of scientific and technological advances on the weather enterprise. Readers from all three sectors will be interested in the analysis and recommendations provided in Fair Weather.
Download or read book The Prediction of Training Device Effectiveness written by Daniel R. Tufano and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Download or read book Safeguarding the Bioeconomy written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research and innovation in the life sciences is driving rapid growth in agriculture, biomedical science, information science and computing, energy, and other sectors of the U.S. economy. This economic activity, conceptually referred to as the bioeconomy, presents many opportunities to create jobs, improve the quality of life, and continue to drive economic growth. While the United States has been a leader in advancements in the biological sciences, other countries are also actively investing in and expanding their capabilities in this area. Maintaining competitiveness in the bioeconomy is key to maintaining the economic health and security of the United States and other nations. Safeguarding the Bioeconomy evaluates preexisting and potential approaches for assessing the value of the bioeconomy and identifies intangible assets not sufficiently captured or that are missing from U.S. assessments. This study considers strategies for safeguarding and sustaining the economic activity driven by research and innovation in the life sciences. It also presents ideas for horizon scanning mechanisms to identify new technologies, markets, and data sources that have the potential to drive future development of the bioeconomy.
Download or read book Renewable Energy Forecasting written by Georges Kariniotakis and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Clinical Prediction Models written by Ewout W. Steyerberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies
