Download or read book Forecasting Australian Monetary Aggregates written by P. A. V. B. Swamy and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia written by Ellis William Tallman and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the information provided by financial aggregates as predictors of real output and inflation. We employ vector autoregression (VAR) techniques to summarise the information in the data, providing evidence on the incremental forecasting value of financial aggregates in a range of forecasting systems for these variables. The in-sample results suggest significant predictive power in only a small number of cases. We then test the forecast performance of the VAR systems for two years out-of-sample in order to mimic more closely the real-time forecasting problem faced by policymakers. Overall, both in-sample and out-of-sample results suggest no robust finding of exploitable information for forecasting purposes in any of the financial aggregates under examination. There is some evidence that the aggregates yield improved forecasts late in the sample period, but there is insufficient subsequent data to draw robust conclusions from this.
Download or read book Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation written by Ellis William Tallman and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether financial aggregates provide information useful for predicting real output growth and inflation, extending the inquiry conducted in Tallman and Chandra (1996). First, we investigate whether perfect knowledge of the future values of financial aggregates helps improve significantly the forecasting accuracy of output and inflation in a simple vector autoregression framework. The results display only one notable improvement to the forecasts with the addition of perfect information on the financial aggregates future information on credit growth helps improve the prediction accuracy of real output growth. The improvement is most noticeable during the early 1990s recession. Second, we test whether the financial aggregates are important explanators within single-equation models that are more rigorously fitted to the data. We find only one instance in which an aggregate helps explain the variation in either real output growth or inflation that is, the growth in credit helps explain the growth in real output in a particular specification of the output model. This finding, though, is sensitive to the choice of foreign output proxy. In sum, we conclude that while credit may have some useful information in times of financial restructuring it is unlikely that there is information in financial aggregates that is exploitable systematically for predicting either real output growth or inflation.
Download or read book Is it Possible to Find an Econometric Law that Works Well in Explanation and Prediction written by P. A. V. B. Swamy and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Divisia Monetary Aggregates written by M. Belongia and published by Springer. This book was released on 2000-10-06 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The leading researchers from central banks and universities around the world debate issues central to the performance of Divisia monetary aggregates both in theory and in practice. The overall conclusion is that Divisia monetary aggregates outperform their simple sum counterparts in a wide range of applications the world over. The book is the first volume-length study of empirical data and theoretical research on the subject.
Download or read book A Companion to Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Download or read book Australia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-20 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Australia's recent economic performance has been impressive. It has experienced steady growth since the early 1990s and inflation has averaged just 2 percent over the same period. This strong showing marks a departure from the performance of the postwar years, when falling productivity and rising inflation caused Australia's per capita income to slip from one of the highest among OECD countries to merely average. This economic turnaround is explored in this book edited by Anoop Singh, Josh Felman, Ray Brooks, Tim Callen, and Christian Thimann of the Asia and Pacific Department.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Social Sciences in Australia written by Ian McAllister and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-08-07 with total page 738 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2003, The Cambridge Handbook of Social Sciences in Australia is a high-quality reference on significant research in Australian social sciences. The book is divided into three main sections, covering the central areas of the social sciences-economics, political science and sociology. Each section examines the significant research in the field, placing it within the context of broader debates about the nature of the social sciences and the ways in which institutional changes have shaped how they are defined, taught and researched.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-08-12 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Download or read book Forecasting Output with the Composite Leading Index written by Francis X. Diebold and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of current account imbalances under floating exchange rates are analyzed. The analysis provides a framework within which the sources of. and the remedies for, the current account imbalances between the United States, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany can be discussed. The effects of various government policies are emphasized, in particular the differences between expenditure-changing and expenditure-switching policies. Short-run and long-run considerations are investigated, as well as the role played by expectations and price-level dynamics.
Download or read book Divisia Monetary Aggregates and Economic Activities in Asian Developing Economies written by Muzafar Shah Habibullah and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1999, this volume examines the role and effects of financial liberalisation in ten deregulated Asian developing countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand. These areas experienced significant financial and economic changes between the ‘financially repressed economies’ of the 1970s through to the 1990s. Muzafar Shah Habibullah approaches this issue in two parts. Part 1 provides empirical evidence of relationships between monetary aggregates, nominal income and price level. In part 2, he offers an early attempt to evaluate the Divisia monetary aggregate as an alternative to the Simple-sum aggregate as an indicator for the financial and economic situation of Asian developing countries.
Download or read book Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality The Case of the Eurosystem written by Mr.Romain M Veyrune and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The publication of liquidity forecasts can be understood as part of central banks’ push toward greater transparency regarding monetary policy implementation. However, the advantages of transparency can only be realized if the information provided is accurate and reliable. This paper (1) provides an overview of the international practice of publishing the forecasts; (2) proposes and implements a framework to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of forecasts using the long history of Eurosystem forecasts as a case study; and (3) analyzes the Eurosystem forecast errors to determine the factors influencing forecast quality. A supporting factor for a high-quality forecast is the contemporaneousness of the information used, whereas money market segmentation can weigh on forecast quality.
Download or read book Economics for Today written by Allan Layton and published by Cengage AU. This book was released on 2018-09-01 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics for Today 6e simplifies the array of confusing economic analyses and presents a straightforward and balanced approach that effectively teaches the application of basic economics principles. Only essential material is included in the book and key concepts are explained in clear and simple terms. Written in an engaging and user-friendly manner, the book is designed for non-majors (although can also be used in these courses) with a continued focus on ethics in economics, sustainability and environmental economics, housing stress, development, health, happiness and debt crises. Economics for Today 6e is also available in MindTap, a personalised eLearning solution. MindTap provides interactive graph builders, online tests, video content and access to Aplia to build student confidence and give you a clear picture of their progress.
Download or read book Transactions to Resolve Failed Depository Institutions written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 1108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
