Download or read book Forecast Methodology for Copper River Sockeye and Chinook Salmon written by Kenneth Roberson and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes Copper River (Alaska) sockeye and chinook salmon forecasting techniques, including confidence interval determination. Also addressed are corresponding run timing prediction for commercial catch, and total salmon escapement timing for the Miles Lake sonar enumeration site.
Download or read book Forecasting Annual Run Size of Chinook Salmon to the Taku River of Alaska and Canada written by David R. Bernard and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An alternative to the current method of forecasting size of the annual terminal run of large (age 1.3-1.5, approximately >659 mm from mid eye to tail fork) Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to the Taku River is demonstrated. Both the current method and the alternative are based on sibling relationships within brood years; however, the alternative is based on median forecasts from power functions with lognormal error. Bayesian analysis using the program WinBUGS was used to avoid bias in forecasted run size from measurement error, and to quantify conditional uncertainty in forecasts. Because of greater imprecision in estimates of annual run size in earlier years, only data from 1995 to 2013 were used to exercise both current and alternative methods. From jackknifed hindcasting the mean percent error for the current method was +13% and +7% for the alternative; the former had two negative predictions. A Bayesian forecast with the alternative method produced the posterior probability distribution for the estimated terminal run size in 2014 with median 24,440 and mean 25,980 large salmon. Management targets under the Pacific Salmon Treaty for Taku fisheries were described, and the forecast posterior probability distribution was used to calculate probabilities of meeting those targets in 2014. Relevance of forecasting with a truncated data series of recent years was discussed. Instructions were given on how to expand the WinBUGS code to produce a forecast for 2015 and for years beyond.
Download or read book Preliminary Forecasts and Projections for 1988 Alaska Salmon Fisheries written by Douglas Murrell Eggers and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Age Structured Model for Assessment and Management of Copper River Chinook Salmon written by James William Savereide and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Chinook salmon in Alaska support human uses through a variety of fisheries. Age-structured assessment models are rarely used for estimating the abundance of exploited stocks. This thesis develops a model for the Copper River chinook salmon population to show its advantages over typical assessment models. Information consists of catch-age data from three fisheries (commercial, recreational, subsistence), and two sources of auxiliary data (escapement index, spawner-recruit relationship). Four approaches utilizing different information sources are explored. Results suggest that an approach utilizing pooled catch-age data with time-varying brood-year proportions produces the best estimates, although retrospective and sensitivity analyses suggest that all four approaches explored are robust. The model should assist managers when making management decisions, because it integrates all sources of information, accounts for uncertainty, and provides estimates of optimal escapement. The model shows promise as a method for assessing and forecasting chinook salmon populations"--Leaf 3.
Download or read book Preliminary Forecasts and Projections for Alaska Salmon Fisheries written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Preliminary Forecasts and Projections for 1990 Alaska Salmon Fisheries written by Harold J. Geiger and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Preliminary Forecasts and Projections for 1991 Alaska Salmon Fisheries and Summary of the 1990 Season written by Harold J Geiger and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book 2021 Kuskokwim River Chinook Salmon Run Reconstruction and 2022 Forecast written by Sean D. Larson and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2021 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The total run was estimated to be 129,751 (95% CI: 94,489–178,171) fish and escapement was estimated to be 101,000 (95% CI: 65,738–149,420) fish. Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2021 escapement at 3 weirs and 2021 harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2021 run and escapement. The 2021 total run of Chinook salmon was below the 1976–2020 average of 214,475 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was met in 2021. The 2022 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 99,000–161,000 fish.
Download or read book 2022 Kuskokwim River Chinook Salmon Run Reconstruction and 2023 Forecast written by Sean D. Larson and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2022 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The total run was estimated to be 142,495 (95% CI: 107,579–188,743) fish, and escapement was estimated to be 107,980 (95% CI: 73,064–154,228) fish. Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2022 escapement at 3 weirs and 2022 harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2022 run and escapement. The 2022 total run of Chinook salmon was below the 1976–2021 average of 211,081 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was met in 2022. The 2022 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 115,000–170,000 fish.
Download or read book Informational Leaflet written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Marine Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book 2020 Kuskokwim River Chinook Salmon Run Reconstruction and 2021 Forecast written by Sean D. Larson and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2020 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The total run was estimated to be 124,486 fish (95% CI: 102,661–150,952) and escapement was estimated to be 88,285 fish (95% CI: 66,460–114,751). Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2020 escapement at 15 locations (3 weirs and 12 aerial surveys) and harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2020 run and escapement. The 2020 total run of Chinook salmon was below the 1976–2019 average of 215,870 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was met in 2020. The 2021 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 94,000–155,000 fish.
Download or read book Time Series Analysis Forecasts for Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka in the Egegik Naknek and Kvichak Rivers of Bristol Bay Alaska written by Edward Vincent Farley (Jr.) and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book 2019 Kuskokwim River Chinook Salmon Run Reconstruction and 2020 Forecast written by Sean D. Larson and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A maximum likelihood model was used to estimate the 2019 drainagewide run size and escapement of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Total run and escapement were estimated to be 226,987 (95% CI: 182,811–281,839) and 188,483 (95% CI: 144,307–243,335) fish, respectively. Model estimates were informed by direct observations of the 2019 escapement at 16 locations (4 weirs and 12 aerial surveys) and harvest, combined with historical observations of escapement (up to 6 weirs and 14 aerial surveys), harvest, test fishery, and mark–recapture data dating back to 1976. Model results are adequate to draw broad conclusions about the 2019 run and escapement. The 2019 total run of Chinook salmon was the largest since 2007 and was probably above the 1976–2018 average of 215,529 fish. The drainagewide sustainable escapement goal of 65,000–120,000 was exceeded in 2019. The 2020 Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon forecast is for a range of 193,000–261,000 fish.
Download or read book A Forecast of Abundance of Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon written by Ned Horner and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Regional Information Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasts of the 1999 Sockeye Salmon Runs to Bristol Bay Using Traditional FRI Methodology written by Donald E. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
