Download or read book Complexity in Economic and Social Systems written by Stanisław Drożdż and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no term that better describes the essential features of human society than complexity. On various levels, from the decision-making processes of individuals, through to the interactions between individuals leading to the spontaneous formation of groups and social hierarchies, up to the collective, herding processes that reshape whole societies, all these features share the property of irreducibility, i.e., they require a holistic, multi-level approach formed by researchers from different disciplines. This Special Issue aims to collect research studies that, by exploiting the latest advances in physics, economics, complex networks, and data science, make a step towards understanding these economic and social systems. The majority of submissions are devoted to financial market analysis and modeling, including the stock and cryptocurrency markets in the COVID-19 pandemic, systemic risk quantification and control, wealth condensation, the innovation-related performance of companies, and more. Looking more at societies, there are papers that deal with regional development, land speculation, and the-fake news-fighting strategies, the issues which are of central interest in contemporary society. On top of this, one of the contributions proposes a new, improved complexity measure.

Download or read book Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values written by Rolf-Dieter Reiss and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-08 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical analysis of extreme data is vital to many disciplines including hydrology, insurance, finance, engineering and environmental sciences. This book provides a self-contained introduction to parametric modeling, exploratory analysis and statistical interference for extreme values. For this Third Edition, the entire text has been thoroughly updated and rearranged to meet contemporary requirements, with new sections and chapters address such topics as dependencies, the conditional analysis and the multivariate modeling of extreme data. New chapters include An Overview of Reduced-Bias Estimation; The Spectral Decomposition Methodology; About Tail Independence; and Extreme Value Statistics of Dependent Random Variables.

Download or read book Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis written by Dipak K. Dey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje

Download or read book Downscaling Techniques for High Resolution Climate Projections written by Rao Kotamarthi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to understanding, using and producing downscaled climate data, for researchers, graduate students, policy makers and practitioners.

Download or read book Modelling Irregularly Spaced Financial Data written by Nikolaus Hautsch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a methodological framework to model univariate and multivariate irregularly spaced financial data. It gives a thorough review of recent developments in the econometric literature, puts forward existing approaches and opens up new directions. The book presents alternative ways to model so-called financial point processes using dynamic duration as well as intensity models and discusses their ability to account for specific features of point process data, like the occurrence of time-varying covariates, censoring mechanisms and multivariate structures. Moreover, it illustrates the use of various types of financial point processes to model financial market activity from different viewpoints and to construct volatility and liquidity measures under explicit consideration of the passing trading time.

Download or read book An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values written by Stuart Coles and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.

Download or read book Econometrics of Financial High Frequency Data written by Nikolaus Hautsch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-12 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The availability of financial data recorded on high-frequency level has inspired a research area which over the last decade emerged to a major area in econometrics and statistics. The growing popularity of high-frequency econometrics is driven by technological progress in trading systems and an increasing importance of intraday trading, liquidity risk, optimal order placement as well as high-frequency volatility. This book provides a state-of-the art overview on the major approaches in high-frequency econometrics, including univariate and multivariate autoregressive conditional mean approaches for different types of high-frequency variables, intensity-based approaches for financial point processes and dynamic factor models. It discusses implementation details, provides insights into properties of high-frequency data as well as institutional settings and presents applications to volatility and liquidity estimation, order book modelling and market microstructure analysis.

Download or read book Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases written by José L. Balcázar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-13 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the joint conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases: ECML PKDD 2010, held in Barcelona, Spain, in September 2010. The 120 revised full papers presented in three volumes, together with 12 demos (out of 24 submitted demos), were carefully reviewed and selected from 658 paper submissions. In addition, 7 ML and 7 DM papers were distinguished by the program chairs on the basis of their exceptional scientific quality and high impact on the field. The conference intends to provide an international forum for the discussion of the latest high quality research results in all areas related to machine learning and knowledge discovery in databases. A topic widely explored from both ML and DM perspectives was graphs, with motivations ranging from molecular chemistry to social networks.

Download or read book Dependence Modeling written by Harry Joe and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka

Download or read book Statistics of Extremes written by Jan Beirlant and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-03-17 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.

Download or read book Extreme Value Theory written by Laurens de Haan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-09 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on theoretical results along with applications All the main topics covering the heart of the subject are introduced to the reader in a systematic fashion Concentration is on the probabilistic and statistical aspects of extreme values Excellent introduction to extreme value theory at the graduate level, requiring only some mathematical maturity

Download or read book On extreme value statistics written by Chen Zhou and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 18th century, statisticians sometimes worked as consultants to gamblers. In order to answer questions like "If a fair coin is flipped 100 times, what is the probability of getting 60 or more heads?", Abraham de Moivre discovered the so-called "normal curve". Independently, Pierre-Simon Laplace derived the central limit theorem, where the normal distribution acts as the limit for the distribution of the sample mean. Nowadays, statisticians sometimes work as consultants for economists, to whom the normal distribution is far from a satisfactory model. For example, one may need to model large-impact financial events in order to to answer questions like "What is the probability of getting into a crisis period similar to the credit squeeze in 2007 in the coming 10 years?". At first glance, estimating the chances of events that rarely happen or even have never happened before sounds like a "mission impossible". The development of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) shows that it is in fact possible to achieve this goal. Different from the central limit theorem, Extreme Value Theory starts from the limit distribution of the sample maximum. Initiated by M. Frechet, R. Fisher and R. von Mises, the limit theory completed by B. Gnedenko, gave the fundamental assumption in EVT, the "extreme value condition". Statistically, the extreme value condition provides a semi-parametric model for the tails of distribution functions. Therefore it can be applied to evaluate the rare events. On the other hand, since the assumption is rather general and natural, the semi-parametric model can have extensive applications in numerous felds.

Download or read book Handbook of Survival Analysis written by John P. Klein and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Survival Analysis presents modern techniques and research problems in lifetime data analysis. This area of statistics deals with time-to-event data that is complicated by censoring and the dynamic nature of events occurring in time. With chapters written by leading researchers in the field, the handbook focuses on advances in survival analysis techniques, covering classical and Bayesian approaches. It gives a complete overview of the current status of survival analysis and should inspire further research in the field. Accessible to a wide range of readers, the book provides: An introduction to various areas in survival analysis for graduate students and novices A reference to modern investigations into survival analysis for more established researchers A text or supplement for a second or advanced course in survival analysis A useful guide to statistical methods for analyzing survival data experiments for practicing statisticians

Download or read book Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes written by M. R. Leadbetter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical Extreme Value Theory-the asymptotic distributional theory for maxima of independent, identically distributed random variables-may be regarded as roughly half a century old, even though its roots reach further back into mathematical antiquity. During this period of time it has found significant application-exemplified best perhaps by the book Statistics of Extremes by E. J. Gumbel-as well as a rather complete theoretical development. More recently, beginning with the work of G. S. Watson, S. M. Berman, R. M. Loynes, and H. Cramer, there has been a developing interest in the extension of the theory to include, first, dependent sequences and then continuous parameter stationary processes. The early activity proceeded in two directions-the extension of general theory to certain dependent sequences (e.g., Watson and Loynes), and the beginning of a detailed theory for stationary sequences (Berman) and continuous parameter processes (Cramer) in the normal case. In recent years both lines of development have been actively pursued.

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Download or read book Predictions in Time Series Using Regression Models written by Cory Terrell and published by Scientific e-Resources. This book was released on 2019-09-02 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Regression methods have been a necessary piece of time arrangement investigation for over a century. As of late, new advancements have made real walks in such territories as non-constant information where a direct model isn't fitting. This book acquaints the peruser with fresher improvements and more assorted regression models and methods for time arrangement examination. Open to any individual who knows about the fundamental present day ideas of factual deduction, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis gives a truly necessary examination of late measurable advancements. Essential among them is the imperative class of models known as summed up straight models (GLM) which gives, under a few conditions, a bound together regression hypothesis reasonable for constant, all out, and check information. The creators stretch out GLM methodology deliberately to time arrangement where the essential and covariate information are both arbitrary and stochastically reliant. They acquaint readers with different regression models created amid the most recent thirty years or somewhere in the vicinity and condense traditional and later outcomes concerning state space models.